Numbers that will not cause mass panic when we know they will drop waaaayyyyy down.
Read much? EVERY SINGLE TIME I've quoted that number --- ALWAYS in response to some wag putting up fake numbers --- I've done so with the notation that it isn't realistic,
because it can't be realistic, because TIME. Not enough has gone by to
establish it. With a 24-day incubation period the number who will recover is Not Yet Recorded.
You want a realistic number? THERE AREN'T ANY. But if some wag keeps repeating bogus ones, they're going to be corrected.
A better estimation of a realistic number is, again, to consider the aggregate, that body of samples that
has had time --- as also previously noted, that is at the moment 12%, and as noted at the same time, THAT TOO has to settle, with time. A still-better view can be ascertained by looking at China, the first country to deal with CV and therefore has had the most TIME, which has a CURRENT rate of just 4%. But that too is not yet settled as China, like everybody else still has active cases not yet resolved.
As I said at the beginning, flinging random numbers out and declaring "this is the mortality rate, full stop" is just irresponsible. Not only is it bogus math, it's pure speculation
based on bogus math.