Cooling Planet: NASA Projects Deep La Niña Event, Peak Temperature Deviation Up To -3°C!

[Sunsettommy]

I thought CO2 was the warm forcing driver, causing the warming so many worry so much about, yet when a regional change in the Pacific Ocean occurs after being missing for years, easily overturns the overrated warm forcing power of CO2, is it because Jack Frost is a very cool guy?

No Tricks Zone

Cooling Planet: NASA Projects Deep La Niña Event, Peak Temperature Deviation Up To -3°C!

By P Gosselin on 14. November 2020

Excerpt:


Data from NASA point to a powerful Pacific La Nina event in the works, and so with it could bring a considerable drop in the mean global surface temperature in 2021.

According to the latest report issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), the La Niña conditions continue in the tropical Pacific: “International climate models suggest it is likely to continue at least through February 2021.”



Peak La Niña conditions expected in January, 2021. Chart source: BOM.



LINK

=====

How does a regional Ocean phenomenon so easily overrun CO2, the super warmist bogeyman molecule?

 

[Montrovant]

If the models are accurate, I'm curious how the temps would compare to previous La Nina events. Without that information I don't see how this means anything as far as global temperatures rising. Is there an argument that temps will never go down because of global warming?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

I thought CO2 was the warm forcing driver, causing the warming so many worry so much about, yet when a regional change in the Pacific Ocean occurs after being missing for years, easily overturns the overrated warm forcing power of CO2, is it because Jack Frost is a very cool guy?

No Tricks Zone

Cooling Planet: NASA Projects Deep La Niña Event, Peak Temperature Deviation Up To -3°C!

By P Gosselin on 14. November 2020

Excerpt:


Data from NASA point to a powerful Pacific La Nina event in the works, and so with it could bring a considerable drop in the mean global surface temperature in 2021.

According to the latest report issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), the La Niña conditions continue in the tropical Pacific: “International climate models suggest it is likely to continue at least through February 2021.”



Peak La Niña conditions expected in January, 2021. Chart source: BOM.



LINK

=====

How does a regional Ocean phenomenon so easily overrun CO2, the super warmist bogeyman molecule?

NASA predicts cooling, er, cuz global warming!

 

[Billy_Bob]

If the models are accurate, I'm curious how the temps would compare to previous La Nina events. Without that information I don't see how this means anything as far as global temperatures rising. Is there an argument that temps will never go down because of global warming?

And once again we come back to forcings...

As this La Niña strengthens and deepens the heat from the ocean surface escaping into the atmosphere is reduced. The primary driver of stable global temperatures is the heat release at night. IF this remains diminished for any period of time the CO2 log warming of about 0.5-1 deg C will be lost rapidly to space. IF we get a 2-3 deg C input loss from the oceans surface, there is no way our current CO2 levels can counter it.

 

[Billy_Bob]

A 1 deg C drop in surface tempratures of the ocean will result in about a 2 deg C drop in air tempratures due to the lapse rate of our atmosphere. People just do not know how our atmosphere works and that cooling will happen 2 to 3 times faster than any warming can occur.

 

[Billy_Bob]

I thought CO2 was the warm forcing driver, causing the warming so many worry so much about, yet when a regional change in the Pacific Ocean occurs after being missing for years, easily overturns the overrated warm forcing power of CO2, is it because Jack Frost is a very cool guy?

No Tricks Zone

Cooling Planet: NASA Projects Deep La Niña Event, Peak Temperature Deviation Up To -3°C!

By P Gosselin on 14. November 2020

Excerpt:


Data from NASA point to a powerful Pacific La Nina event in the works, and so with it could bring a considerable drop in the mean global surface temperature in 2021.

According to the latest report issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), the La Niña conditions continue in the tropical Pacific: “International climate models suggest it is likely to continue at least through February 2021.”



Peak La Niña conditions expected in January, 2021. Chart source: BOM.



LINK

=====

How does a regional Ocean phenomenon so easily overrun CO2, the super warmist bogeyman molecule?

A 2 deg C drop in surface temps should result in a 3-4 deg C drop in air temperatures.

 

[Sunsettommy]

If the models are accurate, I'm curious how the temps would compare to previous La Nina events. Without that information I don't see how this means anything as far as global temperatures rising. Is there an argument that temps will never go down because of global warming?

You are missing the barn here, the postulated warm forcing of atmospheric CO2 remains unchanged, while there are more of it every year, should mean a slight increase in over all warm forcing effect.

But a small regional change of the Eastern Pacific EASILY overwhelms it, that causes pronounced cooling down the road. It has already cooled from the previous 2016 high, when a weak La-Nina showed up, creating a huge .5C drop in a SINGLE year!

It has been cooling over all since 2016, yet you hypocrites call it cherry-picking while you roll around in the mud over warmest monthly or daily events, screaming proof of global warming.

 

[ReinyDays]

Thanks for NASA's weather guessimate ... God knows it takes an aerospace engineer to forecast weather ...

NOAA's most recent statement on La Niña ... October 2020 La Niña Update ... "La Niña’s reign continues in the tropical Pacific, with an approximately 85% chance of lasting through the winter. Forecasters currently think this La Niña will be on the stronger side." ... later in the article they describe "stronger side" by a greater than 1ºC difference ... not the 3ºC claimed by the National Enquirer article in the OP ...

We try to average out these El Nino/La Niña oscillations in climatology ... the OP seems confused about the difference ...

 

[Sunsettommy]

Thanks for NASA's weather guessimate ... God knows it takes an aerospace engineer to forecast weather ...

NOAA's most recent statement on La Niña ... October 2020 La Niña Update ... "La Niña’s reign continues in the tropical Pacific, with an approximately 85% chance of lasting through the winter. Forecasters currently think this La Niña will be on the stronger side." ... later in the article they describe "stronger side" by a greater than 1ºC difference ... not the 3ºC claimed by the National Enquirer article in the OP ...

We try to average out these El Nino/La Niña oscillations in climatology ... the OP seems confused about the difference ...

Ha ha ha, nice try fella, but they have already updated it to THIS:


November 2020 La Niña update: just us chickens
Author:
Emily Becker

November 12, 2020

Excerpt:

La Niña strengthened over October, with both the tropical Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere clearly reflecting La Niña conditions. Forecasters estimate at least a 95% chance La Niña will last through the winter, with a 65% chance of it hanging on through the spring.

The October sea surface temperature anomaly (departure from the long-term average) in the Niño 3.4 region of tropical Pacific was -1.3°C according to the ERSSTv5 dataset, substantially cooler than the La Niña threshold of -0.5°C. This is the eighth-strongest negative October value in the ERSSTv5 record, which dates back to 1950. I’ll talk more about feats of strength (vis-à-vis La Niña, that is) later.

LINK

=====

You were only 6 weeks out of date, but do admit the 3C is ambitiously low forecast. It is expected to reach the -1.5C level starting a month from now.

 

[mamooth]

How does a regional Ocean phenomenon so easily overrun CO2, the super warmist bogeyman molecule?

It doesn't. Thats' why we're still seeing record warmth even with La Nina conditions. 2020 is a La Nina year, yet it's essentially tied with 2016, an El Nino year, for the warmest year ever. The warming trend marches on.

And why did you lie about a 3C temperature drop? After all, NASA said no such thing. NOAA and BoM predicts the exact opposite of what you're claiming. All of the forecasts say a medium La Nina over the winter will fade away in the spring.

 

[Sunsettommy]

How does a regional Ocean phenomenon so easily overrun CO2, the super warmist bogeyman molecule?

It doesn't. Thats' why we're still seeing record warmth even with La Nina conditions. 2020 is a La Nina year, yet it's essentially tied with 2016, an El Nino year, for the warmest year ever. The warming trend marches on.

And why did you lie about a 3C temperature drop? After all, NASA said no such thing. NOAA and BoM predicts the exact opposite of what you're claiming. All of the forecasts say a medium La Nina over the winter will fade away in the spring.

Why don't you dry up and go away, and take your dead on arrival bullshit with you?

ReinyDays reply was Soooo much better, constructive (if out if date) in which his attack on the 3C was proper, to which I replied:

You were only 6 weeks out of date, but do admit the 3C is ambitiously low forecast. It is expected to reach the -1.5C level starting a month from now.

I didn't make the 3C claim in the first place you MORON! That was from the article you didn't read.....

 

[mamooth]

I didn't make the 3C claim in the first place you MORON! That was from the article you didn't read.....

You just trumpeted it in your thread title as gospel truth, putting your stamp of approval on it. And now that your bullshit was debunked, you're pretending you didn't endorse the bullshit.

Given how badly you suck at lying, why do you keep doing it?

 

[Sunsettommy]

I didn't make the 3C claim in the first place you MORON! That was from the article you didn't read.....

You just trumpeted it in your thread title as gospel truth, putting your stamp of approval on it. And now that your bullshit was debunked, you're pretending you didn't endorse the bullshit.

Given how badly you suck at lying, why do you keep doing it?

Gawad!

You have to be the STUPIDEST fuckwit warmist in the forum, since nothing was debunked, the BOM and NASA forecast have both predicted significant ocean surface cooling and changes in the global weather pattern.

BOM


All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the current La Niña will likely persist until at least February 2021. Most climate models reach their peak in December, before starting to weaken. All but one indicate thresholds will still be met in February and most models are still above the threshold during March.

While some models indicate that the current La Niña could possibly reach similar strength to the La Niña of 2010–12, La Niña conditions are currently weaker than at the same point in 2010. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are the coolest since the end of the La Niña event in 2012, but they are not as cool as during October 2010.

La Niña increases the likelihood of above average rainfall across much of Australia during spring, and across much of eastern Australia during summer. La Niña increases the chance of cooler than average daytime temperatures for large areas. It also increases the chance of tropical cyclones, and earlier first rains of the northern wet season.

===


NASA

During La Niña, we’d expect to see less rain than average over the central tropical Pacific and more rain over Indonesia—the strengthened Walker circulation, La Niña’s atmospheric response. The OLR map for October 2020 shows this pattern clearly.

and,

When the conditions come home to roost
We pay so much attention to ENSO because it affects global weather and climate; a stronger La Niña event means these effects are more likely. We’ve already seen hints of some of the weather and climate patterns we’d expect during La Niña. The most obvious one of these is the extraordinarily active Atlantic hurricane season. La Niña leads to reduced shear (the change in wind from the surface to the upper levels) in the atmosphere over the Atlantic, allowing hurricanes to grow and strengthen.

Although October is a little early for clear La Niña impacts, global precipitation and temperature patterns during the month did give some hints of a La Niña effect, including more rain in Indonesia, drier conditions in southeastern China and the U.S. Southwest, and cooler weather in Canada and into the U.S. Northern Plains. I wrote about potential impacts in more detail last month, so check that out if you missed it.

======

The CO2 warm forcing power effect has been shown to be easily overrun by regional changes in the eastern pacific ocean, where profound changes in wind, rain and temperature patterns are obvious,

You go on and on with the bullshit, even your fellow warmists avoid you so much because you are a hideously ugly loudmouth.

 

[mamooth]

You have to be the STUPIDEST fuckwit warmist in the forum, since nothing was debunked, the BOM and NASA forecast have both predicted significant ocean surface cooling and changes in the global weather pattern.

Deflecting by rage-weeping at me won't change the fact that you pushed a really stupid lie in your thread title.

The next time you get caught pushing a lie -- and you will, because you always brainlessly parrot every lie your cult feeds you -- just admit that you pushed the lie because you believed whatever dishonest propaganda you were fed. After all, everyone knows that's the case. You're not smart enough to think up your own lies.

 

[ReinyDays]

Thanks for NASA's weather guessimate ... God knows it takes an aerospace engineer to forecast weather ...

NOAA's most recent statement on La Niña ... October 2020 La Niña Update ... "La Niña’s reign continues in the tropical Pacific, with an approximately 85% chance of lasting through the winter. Forecasters currently think this La Niña will be on the stronger side." ... later in the article they describe "stronger side" by a greater than 1ºC difference ... not the 3ºC claimed by the National Enquirer article in the OP ...

We try to average out these El Nino/La Niña oscillations in climatology ... the OP seems confused about the difference ...

Ha ha ha, nice try fella, but they have already updated it to THIS:


November 2020 La Niña update: just us chickens
Author:
Emily Becker

November 12, 2020

Excerpt:

La Niña strengthened over October, with both the tropical Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere clearly reflecting La Niña conditions. Forecasters estimate at least a 95% chance La Niña will last through the winter, with a 65% chance of it hanging on through the spring.

The October sea surface temperature anomaly (departure from the long-term average) in the Niño 3.4 region of tropical Pacific was -1.3°C according to the ERSSTv5 dataset, substantially cooler than the La Niña threshold of -0.5°C. This is the eighth-strongest negative October value in the ERSSTv5 record, which dates back to 1950. I’ll talk more about feats of strength (vis-à-vis La Niña, that is) later.

LINK

=====

You were only 6 weeks out of date, but do admit the 3C is ambitiously low forecast. It is expected to reach the -1.5C level starting a month from now.

Thank you for withdrawing your bogus claim of 3ºC ... glad you found the the correct website to get your weather forecasts ... here where I live, we're expecting a 3ºC temperature increase over the next couple of hours ... whether or not CO2 ... it's called "dynamic meteorology" ... yes, weather changes all the time ... thank you for reminding us ...

 

[ReinyDays]

A 1 deg C drop in surface tempratures of the ocean will result in about a 2 deg C drop in air tempratures due to the lapse rate of our atmosphere. People just do not know how our atmosphere works and that cooling will happen 2 to 3 times faster than any warming can occur.

Is that the adiabatic lapse rate, the pseudo-adiabatic lapse rate or the instantaneous lapse rate? ... all three tend to be different ...

The surface layer of liquid water molecules will be the same temperature as the bottom layer of gas molecules of the atmosphere ... or, by the 2nd Law, soon will be ... as we go up in the air column, pressure is reduced, which in turn reduces temperature without any change in energy ... i.e. adiabaticly ... or, if we're condensing water vapor, pseudo-adiabaticly ... or we can use a weather balloon and take our measurement directly and get our actual lapse rate ... the common theme here is reducing pressure ... all important in all things weather ...

People just do not know how thermodynamics in our atmosphere behaves ... think "PV=nRT" ...

 

[Sunsettommy]

Thanks for NASA's weather guessimate ... God knows it takes an aerospace engineer to forecast weather ...

NOAA's most recent statement on La Niña ... October 2020 La Niña Update ... "La Niña’s reign continues in the tropical Pacific, with an approximately 85% chance of lasting through the winter. Forecasters currently think this La Niña will be on the stronger side." ... later in the article they describe "stronger side" by a greater than 1ºC difference ... not the 3ºC claimed by the National Enquirer article in the OP ...

We try to average out these El Nino/La Niña oscillations in climatology ... the OP seems confused about the difference ...

Ha ha ha, nice try fella, but they have already updated it to THIS:


November 2020 La Niña update: just us chickens
Author:
Emily Becker

November 12, 2020

Excerpt:

La Niña strengthened over October, with both the tropical Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere clearly reflecting La Niña conditions. Forecasters estimate at least a 95% chance La Niña will last through the winter, with a 65% chance of it hanging on through the spring.

The October sea surface temperature anomaly (departure from the long-term average) in the Niño 3.4 region of tropical Pacific was -1.3°C according to the ERSSTv5 dataset, substantially cooler than the La Niña threshold of -0.5°C. This is the eighth-strongest negative October value in the ERSSTv5 record, which dates back to 1950. I’ll talk more about feats of strength (vis-à-vis La Niña, that is) later.

LINK

=====

You were only 6 weeks out of date, but do admit the 3C is ambitiously low forecast. It is expected to reach the -1.5C level starting a month from now.

Thank you for withdrawing your bogus claim of 3ºC ... glad you found the the correct website to get your weather forecasts ... here where I live, we're expecting a 3ºC temperature increase over the next couple of hours ... whether or not CO2 ... it's called "dynamic meteorology" ... yes, weather changes all the time ... thank you for reminding us ...

I didn't make the 3C claim in the first place, did you not read that it was part of the HEADLINE, Pierre made.

Here are my two sarcastic statements from post one:

I thought CO2 was the warm forcing driver, causing the warming so many worry so much about, yet when a regional change in the Pacific Ocean occurs after being missing for years, easily overturns the overrated warm forcing power of CO2, is it because Jack Frost is a very cool guy?

and,

How does a regional Ocean phenomenon so easily overrun CO2, the super warmist bogeyman molecule?

Never once specifically supported the 3C claim the entire time.

It was about showing a how a regional change in the ocean can make profound changes to the weather patterns, creating a cooling weather pattern. A regional change effecting the planet, while global CO2 coverage seems quite small in comparison, gets pushed aside to watch a cooling trend show up.

The "correct" website links were in the article, which appears YOU never read after all, just like Mamooth didn't.

Maybe you should slow down..........

 

[Sunsettommy]

I didn't make the 3C claim in the first place you MORON! That was from the article you didn't read.....

You just trumpeted it in your thread title as gospel truth, putting your stamp of approval on it. And now that your bullshit was debunked, you're pretending you didn't endorse the bullshit.

Given how badly you suck at lying, why do you keep doing it?

I notice you haven't once quoted me using the 3C number as being valid or as support in my posts.

Snicker.....

 

[ReinyDays]

Thanks for NASA's weather guessimate ... God knows it takes an aerospace engineer to forecast weather ...

NOAA's most recent statement on La Niña ... October 2020 La Niña Update ... "La Niña’s reign continues in the tropical Pacific, with an approximately 85% chance of lasting through the winter. Forecasters currently think this La Niña will be on the stronger side." ... later in the article they describe "stronger side" by a greater than 1ºC difference ... not the 3ºC claimed by the National Enquirer article in the OP ...

We try to average out these El Nino/La Niña oscillations in climatology ... the OP seems confused about the difference ...

Ha ha ha, nice try fella, but they have already updated it to THIS:


November 2020 La Niña update: just us chickens
Author:
Emily Becker

November 12, 2020

Excerpt:

La Niña strengthened over October, with both the tropical Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere clearly reflecting La Niña conditions. Forecasters estimate at least a 95% chance La Niña will last through the winter, with a 65% chance of it hanging on through the spring.

The October sea surface temperature anomaly (departure from the long-term average) in the Niño 3.4 region of tropical Pacific was -1.3°C according to the ERSSTv5 dataset, substantially cooler than the La Niña threshold of -0.5°C. This is the eighth-strongest negative October value in the ERSSTv5 record, which dates back to 1950. I’ll talk more about feats of strength (vis-à-vis La Niña, that is) later.

LINK

=====

You were only 6 weeks out of date, but do admit the 3C is ambitiously low forecast. It is expected to reach the -1.5C level starting a month from now.

Thank you for withdrawing your bogus claim of 3ºC ... glad you found the the correct website to get your weather forecasts ... here where I live, we're expecting a 3ºC temperature increase over the next couple of hours ... whether or not CO2 ... it's called "dynamic meteorology" ... yes, weather changes all the time ... thank you for reminding us ...

I didn't make the 3C claim in the first place, did you not read that it was part of the HEADLINE, Pierre made.

Here are my two sarcastic statements from post one:

I thought CO2 was the warm forcing driver, causing the warming so many worry so much about, yet when a regional change in the Pacific Ocean occurs after being missing for years, easily overturns the overrated warm forcing power of CO2, is it because Jack Frost is a very cool guy?

and,

How does a regional Ocean phenomenon so easily overrun CO2, the super warmist bogeyman molecule?

Never once specifically supported the 3C claim the entire time.

It was about showing a how a regional change in the ocean can make profound changes to the weather patterns, creating a cooling weather pattern. A regional change effecting the planet, while global CO2 coverage seems quite small in comparison, gets pushed aside to watch a cooling trend show up.

The "correct" website links were in the article, which appears YOU never read after all, just like Mamooth didn't.

Maybe you should slow down..........

Sure .. I understand ... you typed that into your OP but you can't be held responsible for typing it into your OP ...

"In the beginning, God created Heaven and Earth"

I'm not responsible for that claim, I just typed it in is all ... ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ...

 

[Montrovant]

If the models are accurate, I'm curious how the temps would compare to previous La Nina events. Without that information I don't see how this means anything as far as global temperatures rising. Is there an argument that temps will never go down because of global warming?

You are missing the barn here, the postulated warm forcing of atmospheric CO2 remains unchanged, while there are more of it every year, should mean a slight increase in over all warm forcing effect.

But a small regional change of the Eastern Pacific EASILY overwhelms it, that causes pronounced cooling down the road. It has already cooled from the previous 2016 high, when a weak La-Nina showed up, creating a huge .5C drop in a SINGLE year!

It has been cooling over all since 2016, yet you hypocrites call it cherry-picking while you roll around in the mud over warmest monthly or daily events, screaming proof of global warming.

You hypocrites? Who do you think you’re talking to?