Clinton's Swing-State Advantage

[Jon]

God, I love this article. I wish people would look at the math and realize how it plays out:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107539/Hillary-Clintons-SwingState-Advantage.aspx

Clinton's main advantage is that her states -- including Florida and Michigan -- represent nearly twice as many Electoral College votes as Obama's. However, removing Florida and Michigan from the equation, her purple states are about comparable to Obama's in electoral vote size, and thus the two appear more evenly situated.

Clinton's 2008 swing-state victories include Nevada, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Arkansas, and -- based solely on popular vote (not delegates) -- Florida and Michigan (her swing states total 105 electoral votes). Thus far in May, Gallup has found Clinton leading McCain in these states by six percentage points, 49% to 43%. McCain holds the slight edge over Obama in these states, 46% to 43%. Thus, as of today, Clinton is clearly the stronger Democratic candidate in this cluster of states where she beat Obama in the popular vote.

I just wanted to point out for maneal that Clinton IS polling better than McCain in Arkansas. While it is a relatively small number of electoral votes in the general election, it's about the same size as every other swing state Obama won. Clinton at least brings the state into play, Obama does not. And in an election this close, states like Arkansas could make all the difference.

 

[ReillyT]

And in an election this close, states like Arkansas could make all the difference.

How do we have any idea that the election will be close? It is May - probably a bit early to jump to this conclusion.

 

[RetiredGySgt]

If there is any possible way for the Dems to lose, they will try their damnedest to meet that goal.

 

[ReillyT]

If there is any possible way for the Dems to lose, they will try their damnedest to meet that goal.

I have to agree with this. We seem determined to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

 

[Toro]

If there is any possible way for the Dems to lose, they will try their damnedest to meet that goal.

qft

 

[ReillyT]

qft

What does qft mean?

 

[Jon]

How do we have any idea that the election will be close? It is May - probably a bit early to jump to this conclusion.

Count the states, put them blue or red, and see.

http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/calculator.html

Assume all current polls are right. Do both McCain versus Clinton, and McCain versus Obama. In states like Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arkansas (where McCain beats Obama but loses to Clinton, according to current polls), and see the difference they make. And likewise, give Wisconsin to Obama over McCain.

I come up with Clinton winning, and Obama losing. Of course, I did this very quickly based on memory of poll results. I may have made a few mishaps. I'll play with it more accurately when I have more time.

 

[Steerpike]

Assume all current polls are right. Do both McCain versus Clinton, and McCain versus Obama.

But there is no reason to make that assumption, any more than there was to assume the polls 3 months ago were right.

The polls that are out right now are worthless in terms of November.

 

[Jon]

But there is no reason to make that assumption, any more than there was to assume the polls 3 months ago were right.

The polls that are out right now are worthless in terms of November.

How do we know that? We can't base our choice for November over what MIGHT happen in six months. We have to choose the nominee based on what we know now. What we know now is that Clinton wins swing states, and Obama does not.

 

[Steerpike]

How do we know that? We can't base our choice for November over what MIGHT happen in six months. We have to choose the nominee based on what we know now. What we know now is that Clinton wins swing states, and Obama does not.

What we know now is that Obama leads in delegates and votes. They aren't going to upset that. That's the reality of it.

 

[Jon]

What we know now is that Obama leads in delegates and votes. They aren't going to upset that. That's the reality of it.

And what we know now that is Obama is more likely to lose in November than Clinton. That's the reality of it.

Why put in a candidate you don't think can win?

 

[Steerpike]

And what we know now that is Obama is more likely to lose in November than Clinton. That's the reality of it.

Why put in a candidate you don't think can win?

Well, I believe the DNC thinks both can win, though Clinton is the stronger candidate. Given that, they're not going to make what they perceive to be a political mistake by throwing the nomination in the other direction.

If the DNC thought Obama had no shot, they might risk it. But they believe that he can win in November. They also believe Clinton can win.

 

[manifold]

JS,

Clinton is finished. It's all over but the crying. Wake up and smell the coffee shit-for-brains.

 

[manifold]

And what we know now that is Obama is more likely to lose in November than Clinton. That's the reality of it.

Why put in a candidate you don't think can win?

Bullshit. Obama beats McCain easily. It's just too bad if that pisses you off.

 

[Jon]

JS,

Clinton is finished. It's all over but the crying. Wake up and smell the coffee shit-for-brains.

I said weeks ago Clinton was finished. That doesn't mean I can't continue to argue that she's more likely to win.

I'll be saying the same thing in January, when McCain is sworn into office.

 

[Jon]

Bullshit. Obama beats McCain easily. It's just too bad if that pisses you off.

Plug it into the electoral calculator. Obama can't win swing states. McCain wins. Sorry.

 

[Steerpike]

Bullshit. Obama beats McCain easily. It's just too bad if that pisses you off.

I don't think it is going to be easy regardless of who the candidate is. The country is still polarized enough that it is likely to be close.

 

[manifold]

I said weeks ago Clinton was finished. That doesn't mean I can't continue to argue that she's more likely to win.

I'll be saying the same thing in January, when McCain is sworn into office.

She's not more likely to win if she ain't on the ticket.

 

[manifold]

I don't think it is going to be easy regardless of who the candidate is. The country is still polarized enough that it is likely to be close.

I'd be happy to place a wager once the tickets are finalized.

 

[Steerpike]

I'd be happy to place a wager once the tickets are finalized.

Sure. We'll have to define what you mean by "easy." How many points you think he'll win by?