Hillary's win, if it remains around a 10% margin, is huge.
Obama outspends her in every state, he literally has a fanbase that the media is calling "a movement," and yet she is still able to go toe-to-toe with him and win big states like Pennsylvania.
Including the things mentioned above, there are so many factors superdelegates need to be looking at:
- Clinton has won most of the big Democratic states by substantial margins. She has won Ohio, New York, California, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Massachusetts. Arguably, she also had a strong showing in Michigan and Florida. Yes, I know, these don't count. Regardless, people went to the polls. They voted for her more than anyone other choice on the ballot.
- Clinton won the state of Texas. Don't give me any of this "He won the delegates" crap. In a general election, popular vote decides for the entire state; it's not divided into districts. She received TWICE the number of votes as McCain is the TEXAS primary. This indicates she actually has a chance at stealing the state of Texas from a Republican.
- A large number of people deciding at the last minute are voting for her. This means that people who were on the fence have decided Obama's latest campaigns are not well-received, showing that Obama is not as "perfect" a candidate as his people want you to believe.
- Most recent polls show that most voters see Clinton as more likely to beat McCain in a general election.
Let's not forget: she's got a strong showing in upcoming states and territories (Guam, Puerto Rico). I don't see her taking the delegate lead, it's pretty much impossible (unless she can find some good dirt on Hussein Obama). But I do see her closing the gap some, especially if she can hang in in North Carolina. All the other remaining states (Kentucky, Oregon, Indiana) are going to be very close, probably a split in delegates. The territories will pull heavily for Clinton, giving her more of an edge.
Plus, if Dean decides to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates based on previous election results, she's a shoe-in to close the gap and give the superdelegates reason to vote for her. They will see her as more electable.
If they will give her the number of delegates based on the percentage of votes she received in Florida and Michigan, and seat the rest in some form of random assignment and allow those delegates to vote freely, I think it would be fair.
It's still very plausible for Clinton to win this. The momentum is in her direction. Even if Obama wins North Carolina, the fact remains: he can't win a blue state. Superdelegates will not take this lightly.