candycorn
Diamond Member

Suddenly, the Electoral College Is Posing a Problem for Trump
Again, it’s all about the demographics of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
What the author writes makes sense.
From the piece.
A few examples drawn from current demographic data: Latinos make up about 40 percent of California’s population, and Trump appears to be making inroads with them there. But there is no chance that this trend will flip the heavily Democratic state toward Trump, so eroding Harris’ edge with California Latinos will not help him reach the White House. Latinos also make up about 40 percent of Texas’ population, yet Trump is essentially certain to carry the Lone Star State already, so additional votes from Texas Latinos won’t matter to him. Florida is an increasingly diverse state, and Trump may win an eye-popping number of nonwhite votes there. But he is overwhelmingly likely to win it no matter what, so this feat would not clinch him a second term.
The same dynamic applies to smaller states. Black voters make up about 36 percent of Mississippi’s population, for instance, but winning over some of these voters will not boost Trump’s overall chance of victory because he already has Mississippi locked down. Conversely, Asian Americans make up 10 percent of New Jersey and Washington state, but Harris has both in the bag. So it will be irrelevant to Trump if these Asian American voters defect to him.