Round and round we go...
No, other countries don't matter, unless you can specifically point to empirical data that suggest they do. It's ironic that you claim I'm just throwing out stuff, and yet you are throwing out "other countries" with absolutely nothing to support that their problems were in any way, related to ours.
Pointing out that Freddie Mac Securitized Sub-prime loans in 1997, is not just a random irrelevant factoid. It represents the reversal of 50 years worth of standards on what qualified to be a secure loan to the investor market. Pointing out that this act happen at the very exact moment that the sub-prime market shoots off, represents a reversal of at least 20 years of sub-prime being a niche market. Pointing out that the price bubble started, at the very moment these two events happened, is not irrelevant, or inconsequential. It is the logical steps of action verse reaction.
My opinion is based on the empirical data, that is widely known, and accepted. Saying "other countries has something similar happen in a similar time span" is both vague and correlative, not causative.
Further it seems like you have an extreme double standard. When talking about borrowers, you give them a complete and total free-pass for taking loans they had absolutely no ability to repay, and buying homes they had no ability to afford. You do not require them to have any responsibility in the loans they got, and signed their names too.
Yet with the loan originators, you claim they should have complete responsibility to knowing the ability of the borrower to pay back.
Now that right there, is in itself illogical. You expect that the person taking the loan, should have less self-knowledge of their own ability to repay, than some accountant in a cubicle somewhere? What logic is that?
Yet the government told both the borrower, and the lender, that these loans were safe, by virtue of the fact gov had their arms, Freddie and Fannie, securitize those loans.
Why is it that when the banker is told to make these loans, and that they are safe because Fannie Freddie securitized them, or they'll get sued by the government, they are supposed to know better somehow.... yet when a borrower who has bad credit, low income, no down payment walks into a bank and asks for a loan, they are absolved from knowing better, and taking responsibility for taking a loan they can't afford?
Completely wrong.... I'm sorry, we're not going past this point either, until you admit the truth.
(GSA- Glass Steagall Act)
Washington Mutual. Savings and Loans. Did not fall under GSA.
IndyMac. Savings and Loans. Did not fall under the GSA.
Bear Stearns. Investment bank. Did not fall under the GSA.
CountryWide. Investment bank. Did not fall under the GSA.
Merrill Lynch. Investment bank. Did not fall under the GSA.
AIG. Insurance company. Did not fall under the GSA.
In fact, if you just walk down the list of all the failures, very very few were Financial Holding Companies. If you don't know... the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act, did not just "allow banks to do whatever they want" or something.
Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act, allowed banks to apply to change their charter to a "Financial Holding Company". By doing this, they could then operate Retail Banking (your local bank, open a savings account and such), Commercial Banking (loans and accounts of corporations and business), Investment Banking (buying securities like MBS and such), and Insurance Services.
But the key is, they had to change over their charter. Most didn't.
Thus the vast majority of all the banks that failed during the crash, were not Financial Holding Companies, and if GLB Act had never existed, nothing would have changed with the vast majority of those failures.
The only big exception that I know of, would be Wachovia.
But other companies that WERE Financial Holding Companies, many of them weathered the storm better. Wells Fargo was a FHC. They did fine. JPMorgan Chase, was a FHC, and they had no problems.
In fact, over all, Financial Holding Companies did better than their more limited competitors, naturally because of diversification. If you have your entire business wrapped up exclusively in Mortgages, and the Mortgage market tanks, you are likely to go down. If on the other hand, you have some insurance business, and some retail business, and investment business, and a fraction of your business is in Mortgages, and they tank, you or more likely to survive.
Further!!
The government actually used Financial Holding Companies, as their method for FIXING the crisis.
Hello?!?
Bank of America was not a FHC. But the government asked them to buy out CountryWide..... which required them to become an FHC.
JP Morgan Chase, was asked to purchase Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual.... which they would not have been able to do without being an FHC.
Wells Fargo was asked to buy Wachovia, and Century Bank.... which they would not have been able to do without being an FHC.
What part of this is not making sense?
Bottom line..... Glass Steagall, and the Gramm Leach Bliley, neither one had ANYTHING.... to do with the crash. Nothing. Period. Sorry, you are wrong. Flat out, wrong.
You seem convinced that CRA caused a bubble but your analysis amounts to looking at a graph and a date on legislation. I am sorry but I don't think that is exactly proof. I admit that I have no proven that the bubble in 97 was just about global economic trends but I didn't mean to act like I was.
I am not saying that the borrowers are free of guilt. They just haven't been talked about until now. Seems pretty pointless to blame them as they are the ones that are getting foreclosed on and their "guilt" is rather established already.
You keep acting like F&F was mandating all of these loans which they were not. That is simply a falsehood.
You also seem set to ignore the fact that ratings agencies have a responsibility to rate both mortgages and MBS.
You also seem set to ignore the lowering of lending standards well beyond the lowered standards allowed under the CRA.
You also seem set to ignore the fact that all of these companies are responsible for their own choices for better or worse. How do you think this all went down? From what you said it is like these institutions made financial decisions by blindly trusting F&F. Do you think that passes as an excuse for the CEO's of these companies? Sorry I lost all your money, I know you pay me millions upon millions of dollars to make these decisions but I figured why think for myself when I can let F&F think for me. Yeah they used this new formula for packaging MBS but I didn't bother to check it out. I figure we should just take it on faith that F&F knows what it is doing. Sure we employee all these people who are supposed to know this stuff but lets ignore that too.
As for GSA, look at the companies that were bailed out. Look at how their willingness to take on risk changed. Investment firms were historically far more willing to take risks than commercial banks. But hey lets just assume that had nothing to do with it.
Looking at relevant legislation, and empirical data on a graph is 'all' I'm looking at? Should I consult a ouija board, or the stars too?
Looking at relevant data, and relevant legislation seems to be the proper course of action for investigating the empirical evidence for a given topic. What would you suggest?
F&F didn't have to mandate anything. As I've said before, they are the largest player, with the biggest authority in the market, backed by the Federal Government. When they move.... whether they "mandate it" or not, the market follows. That's how that works.
The same is true in other completely private markets. Take Intel. Intel is the 6000 lbs gorilla of the microchip market. When Intel says "we're going to do this", suddenly the market follows. Why? They are the biggest player, they hold the cards, they have the biggest weight in the market.
When Intel integrated graphic processors into their CPU chips, AMD started integrating ATI graphics processors into their CPU chips. Did Intel "mandate" it? No, they just happen to be the biggest player in the game, and they move the market, whether they intend to, or not.
Fannie and Freddie.... Same thing.
Again, the CRA lowered the standard to sub-prime. There is no standard below sub-prime. There is no Sub-sub-prime. The prime rate standard, is in fact the only standard.
So when you say they lowered the standard below the CRA.... I have no idea what you are talking about because there is nothing below sub-prime.
From what you said it is like these institutions made financial decisions by blindly trusting F&F. Do you think that passes as an excuse for the CEO's of these companies?
Again, I don't understand this comment. Yes, the fact the institution did make decisions blindly trusting F&F. Like I posted before, Countrywide was a preferred partner of Fannie Mae, and was given awards by Fannie Mae for doing what Fannie Mae wanted. I posted you the article written by Fannie Mae back in 2000, about this very issue.
Now does it excuse anything? No. I never said, nor suggested they were excused. You can't find any comment by me, which suggests that they should be excused for this. There should never have been a bailout of any type. The companies should have been bankrupted, and sold off.
Again, the difference between you and me, is not that. The difference is, I want to focus on causes, not resulting problems. What was the cause? The cause was F&F, and the Government pushing sub-prime loans. If we don't deal with the cause, and we only focus on smacking around the banks, in 10 years time, we'll be right back here with another crash, because as long as government is pushing policies to give loans to people who don't qualify.... this is the outcome. You can scream at the banks for following the government until the end of time, and they are still going to do it. I promise you. You can fine them, jail them, attack them, run around in some park, with signs saying 'eat the rich'. It won't change anything, and we'll end up right back here all over again. You have to stop the cause.... stop government from pushing bad loans.
As for GSA, look at the companies that were bailed out. Look at how their willingness to take on risk changed. Investment firms were historically far more willing to take risks than commercial banks. But hey lets just assume that had nothing to do with it
The Glass Steagall Act has nothing to do with investment firms. GSA did not prevent them from existing. GSA did not prevent them from growing. GSA did not prevent them from taking risks. GSA did not prevent them from buying MBSs. GSA did not prevent them from buying CDOs. GSA did not prevent them from doing anything at all.
The *ONLY* thing that GSA prevented, was it prevented them from ALSO running retail savings and loans, running Commercial banking, and from offering insurance.
Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, and Countrywide, were all just, and only, investment banks. None of them were doing retail, commercial, or insurance.
GSA would have had ZERO effect on any of them. None of them were Financial Holding Companies. None of them were affected by GSA, or GLBA.
If the GSA was the law of the land, it would have had
zero effect on the crash of all these firms.
And by way... investment firms always take more risk than banks. That's the nature of the beast. The whole reason investment firms exist, is because banks don't pay jack on their deposits. That's why *I* invest. Do I want 0.01% interest from my account at the bank? Or do I want 26% interest I earned at my mutual fund investments?.............
Hmmmm.... 0.01%, or 26%.... hmmmm...... I want the 26%. That's why I hired my mutual fund broker to buy those investments for me.