California Dems in Red Districts Not Polling Well

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

I recently heard a claim by a political pundit about T.J. Cox, who picked up the 21st Congressional District in California by defeating incumbent Republican David Valadao, doing poorly in recent polling. Turns out it was correct. A July poll showed Cox losing by 16 points to Valadao in a rematch in a district that leans Democratic

In Orange County, Democrat Gil Cisneros is narrowly losing by two points to a generic Republican challenger. Republican Young Kim, who he narrowly defeated last year after absentee ballots came in, is running for the seat again. Cisneros has a 34% favorable rating.

Also in Orange County, Harley Rouda, who defeated Dana Rohrabacher is tied with Republican challenger Michelle Steele 42% - 42%. Just 28% said they wanted to reelect Rouda.

It's worth noting that impeachment is not polling well in Orange County either.

New GOP polling also gives credence to Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s warnings against a rush to impeach President Trump. An NRCC poll of five battleground districts across the country, including Cisneros’ and that of Democrat Katie Porter, found support for impeachment hovering between 29% and 35% in each district. Those opposing ranged from 57% to 60% in the same districts.

Voters in California’s 39th District oppose impeachment by wide margins with 34% supporting and 57% opposing.

Calif. Dem Who Flipped GOP Seat in '18 Trails in New Poll | RealClearPolitics

These are interesting results because while people may not have the highest opinion of Trump, they don't seem to like their newly elected Democratic representatives either. The fact they've spent their entire first year in Congress working on almost nothing but impeachment might have something to do with it. Next year's elections are going to see a lot of activity.

 

[bendog]

I recently heard a claim by a political pundit about T.J. Cox, who picked up the 21st Congressional District in California by defeating incumbent Republican David Valadao, doing poorly in recent polling. Turns out it was correct. A July poll showed Cox losing by 16 points to Valadao in a rematch in a district that leans Democratic

In Orange County, Democrat Gil Cisneros is narrowly losing by two points to a generic Republican challenger. Republican Young Kim, who he narrowly defeated last year after absentee ballots came in, is running for the seat again. Cisneros has a 34% favorable rating.

Also in Orange County, Harley Rouda, who defeated Dana Rohrabacher is tied with Republican challenger Michelle Steele 42% - 42%. Just 28% said they wanted to reelect Rouda.

It's worth noting that impeachment is not polling well in Orange County either.

New GOP polling also gives credence to Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s warnings against a rush to impeach President Trump. An NRCC poll of five battleground districts across the country, including Cisneros’ and that of Democrat Katie Porter, found support for impeachment hovering between 29% and 35% in each district. Those opposing ranged from 57% to 60% in the same districts.

Voters in California’s 39th District oppose impeachment by wide margins with 34% supporting and 57% opposing.

Calif. Dem Who Flipped GOP Seat in '18 Trails in New Poll | RealClearPolitics

These are interesting results because while people may not have the highest opinion of Trump, they don't seem to like their newly elected Democratic representatives either. The fact they've spent their entire first year in Congress working on almost nothing but impeachment might have something to do with it. Next year's elections are going to see a lot of activity.

Not impossible. Over 50% of the new dems ran on educ and HC in suburban districts. But don't tell the AOC and Bernie crowd that.

 

[Rambunctious]

Californian citizens have had a gut full of democrats....the ruin everything they touch....

 

[kyzr]

The GOP only needs to flip about 20 seats to take back the House.
There are 40 dems in districts that Trump won in 2016.
Its very possible for the House to flip back to the GOP.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

I recently heard a claim by a political pundit about T.J. Cox, who picked up the 21st Congressional District in California by defeating incumbent Republican David Valadao, doing poorly in recent polling. Turns out it was correct. A July poll showed Cox losing by 16 points to Valadao in a rematch in a district that leans Democratic

In Orange County, Democrat Gil Cisneros is narrowly losing by two points to a generic Republican challenger. Republican Young Kim, who he narrowly defeated last year after absentee ballots came in, is running for the seat again. Cisneros has a 34% favorable rating.

Also in Orange County, Harley Rouda, who defeated Dana Rohrabacher is tied with Republican challenger Michelle Steele 42% - 42%. Just 28% said they wanted to reelect Rouda.

It's worth noting that impeachment is not polling well in Orange County either.

New GOP polling also gives credence to Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s warnings against a rush to impeach President Trump. An NRCC poll of five battleground districts across the country, including Cisneros’ and that of Democrat Katie Porter, found support for impeachment hovering between 29% and 35% in each district. Those opposing ranged from 57% to 60% in the same districts.

Voters in California’s 39th District oppose impeachment by wide margins with 34% supporting and 57% opposing.

Calif. Dem Who Flipped GOP Seat in '18 Trails in New Poll | RealClearPolitics

These are interesting results because while people may not have the highest opinion of Trump, they don't seem to like their newly elected Democratic representatives either. The fact they've spent their entire first year in Congress working on almost nothing but impeachment might have something to do with it. Next year's elections are going to see a lot of activity.

Illegals and the non-living are always under represented in these polls of "likely voters" and will fill the gap for the democrat

 

[MACAULAY]

Here's Adam Schiff's reaction to the OP:

 

[Oddball]

Don't worry, the democrat ballot harvesters will be canvassing every cemetery to make sure they have the votes.

 

[pyetro]

I recently heard a claim by a political pundit about T.J. Cox, who picked up the 21st Congressional District in California by defeating incumbent Republican David Valadao, doing poorly in recent polling. Turns out it was correct. A July poll showed Cox losing by 16 points to Valadao in a rematch in a district that leans Democratic

In Orange County, Democrat Gil Cisneros is narrowly losing by two points to a generic Republican challenger. Republican Young Kim, who he narrowly defeated last year after absentee ballots came in, is running for the seat again. Cisneros has a 34% favorable rating.

Also in Orange County, Harley Rouda, who defeated Dana Rohrabacher is tied with Republican challenger Michelle Steele 42% - 42%. Just 28% said they wanted to reelect Rouda.

It's worth noting that impeachment is not polling well in Orange County either.

New GOP polling also gives credence to Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s warnings against a rush to impeach President Trump. An NRCC poll of five battleground districts across the country, including Cisneros’ and that of Democrat Katie Porter, found support for impeachment hovering between 29% and 35% in each district. Those opposing ranged from 57% to 60% in the same districts.

Voters in California’s 39th District oppose impeachment by wide margins with 34% supporting and 57% opposing.

Calif. Dem Who Flipped GOP Seat in '18 Trails in New Poll | RealClearPolitics

These are interesting results because while people may not have the highest opinion of Trump, they don't seem to like their newly elected Democratic representatives either. The fact they've spent their entire first year in Congress working on almost nothing but impeachment might have something to do with it. Next year's elections are going to see a lot of activity.

Let me debun this thread using your own words and the link you provided.
You cited three races.
In the first race, you didn't mention that the 16% lead was from a poll commissioned by the Republican Party (as you can read in your link).
It doesn't stop there. The opponent was a generic, no-name candidate. But you didn't say that either.
Then the other two races are tied, whereas the Democrats won these districts by extremely tiny margins in both cases, which means Republicans who call a tied district a "red district" are the ones in trouble.

 

[pyetro]

Here's Adam Schiff's reaction to the OP:

View attachment 293029

Your reaction when you saw the 16% lead is against "unnamed" in a poll commissioned by the Republican Party:

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Let me debun this thread using your own words and the link you provided.

Please do. I'm on a low carb diet

You cited three races.
In the first race, you didn't mention that the 16% lead was from a poll commissioned by the Republican Party (as you can read in your link).
It doesn't stop there. The opponent was a generic, no-name candidate. But you didn't say that either.

I read in another article that the no named candidate was Valadao. If it was unnamed to the respondent then that would actually be worse for Cox because it means 52% of voters would be willing to take anyone over him. Not good news.

Then the other two races are tied, whereas the Democrats won these districts by extremely tiny margins in both cases, which means Republicans who call a tied district a "red district" are the ones in trouble.

You have that backwards, actually. Incumbents generally win reelection, so when they are tied in polling it's not good news for them. Any political analyst will tell you that. The two I cited also have very low approval ratings.

 

[pyetro]

Let me debun this thread using your own words and the link you provided.

Please do. I'm on a low carb diet

You cited three races.
In the first race, you didn't mention that the 16% lead was from a poll commissioned by the Republican Party (as you can read in your link).
It doesn't stop there. The opponent was a generic, no-name candidate. But you didn't say that either.

I read in another article that the no named candidate was Valadao. If it was unnamed to the respondent then that would actually be worse for Cox because it means 52% of voters would be willing to take anyone over him. Not good news.

Then the other two races are tied, whereas the Democrats won these districts by extremely tiny margins in both cases, which means Republicans who call a tied district a "red district" are the ones in trouble.

You have that backwards, actually. Incumbents generally win reelection, so when they are tied in polling it's not good news for them. Any political analyst will tell you that. The two I cited also have very low approval ratings.

This is a Dem incumbent in a red district. Republicans supposed to be ahead.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

This is a Dem incumbent in a red district. Republicans supposed to be ahead.

According to who?

 

[g5000]

The GOP only needs to flip about 20 seats to take back the House.
There are 40 dems in districts that Trump won in 2016.
Its very possible for the House to flip back to the GOP.

In other news, there are 12 Democratic Senate seats and 23 Republican Senate seats up for election in 2020.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

The GOP only needs to flip about 20 seats to take back the House.
There are 40 dems in districts that Trump won in 2016.
Its very possible for the House to flip back to the GOP.

In other news, there are 12 Democratic Senate seats and 23 Republican Senate seats up for election in 2020.

But how many are competitive? Unless they are in a swing state, most Senate races are a snooze fest.

We’re Checking In On All Those 2020 Senate Races. A Few GOP Incumbents Look Vulnerable.

 

[Dick Foster]

The GOP only needs to flip about 20 seats to take back the House.
There are 40 dems in districts that Trump won in 2016.
Its very possible for the House to flip back to the GOP.

At this point I'd say that is a given.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

The GOP only needs to flip about 20 seats to take back the House.
There are 40 dems in districts that Trump won in 2016.
Its very possible for the House to flip back to the GOP.

At this point I'd say that is a given.

Based on what? The election is 11 months away. A lot of things can happen between now and then. Nothing is a given this far out.

 

[jknowgood]

The GOP only needs to flip about 20 seats to take back the House.
There are 40 dems in districts that Trump won in 2016.
Its very possible for the House to flip back to the GOP.

At this point I'd say that is a given.

Based on what? The election is 11 months away. A lot of things can happen between now and then. Nothing is a given this far out.

I can give you three reasons Trump will win and get both houses.
Russian collusion
Kavanaugh
This impeachment fiasco

 

[mudwhistle]

Democrats stole those seats with illegal voting ...... So it's no small wonder they don't like their representation.

It's the primary reason they won the majority in the House.

 

[kyzr]

The GOP only needs to flip about 20 seats to take back the House.
There are 40 dems in districts that Trump won in 2016.
Its very possible for the House to flip back to the GOP.

In other news, there are 12 Democratic Senate seats and 23 Republican Senate seats up for election in 2020.

Very true. However, the only toss-up or "flippable" seats are:
AL, Doug Jones is gone, +1 GOP, so start at 54-GOP and 46-Dem
ME, Sue Collins
NC, Thom Tillis
CO, Gardner
AZ, McSally

I don't see the democrats flipping all (4) senate seats, even then its a 50-50 tie and Pence would break the tie.

 

[kyzr]

Democrats stole those seats with illegal voting ...... So it's no small wonder they don't like their representation.

It's the primary reason they won the majority in the House.

That and the bad publicity that the MSM was hammering the GOP with saying that Mueller will prove Trump colluded with Russia.
So bad publicity and the simple fact that historically the out party picks up House seats in off-year elections.