BUILDING PERMITS and HOUSING STARTS

Neubarth

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NEW HOUSING STARTS NOW
Economic Calendar: Financial Calendars - Yahoo! Finance
JAN 2010 591K
DEC 2009 575K
NOV 2009 580K
OCT 2009 527K
SEP 2009 590K
AUG 2009 598K
JUL 2009 581K
JUN 2009 587K


NEW HOUSING STARTS BEFORE THE SHIT HIT THE FAN.
MAR 2007 1518K
FEB 2007 1525K


BUILDING PERMITS NOW
JAN 2010 622 K
DEC 2009 653 K
.........
MAR 2008 927 K
FEB 2008 978 K
JAN 2008 1048 K


BUILDING PERMITS BEFORE THE SHIT HIT THE FAN
FEB 2006 2145 K
JAN 2006 2217 K
DEC 2005 2068K
 
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uscitizen

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I was getting worried about you and thought I might have to post some depressing stuff if you did not show up.
 
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Neubarth

Neubarth

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The building industry both residential and commercial is really hurting in this Depression.
 

uscitizen

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Of course they are along with a lot of other businesses and individuals.
 

uscitizen

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I personally think congress should cut their staff by the same percentage as the unemployment rate.
And their office budgets as well.
Share the pain or we will have no gain.
We have learned virtually nothing so far in this great recession.
And still think that more of the same that got us into this mess will fix things.
 
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Neubarth

Neubarth

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NEW HOUSING STARTS NOW
Economic Calendar: Financial Calendars - Yahoo! Finance
FEB 2010 575K
JAN 2010 591K
DEC 2009 575K

NEW HOUSING STARTS BEFORE THE SHIT HIT THE FAN.
MAR 2007 1518K
FEB 2007 1525K


BUILDING PERMITS NOW
FEB 2010 612 K
JAN 2010 622 K
DEC 2009 653 K

BUILDING PERMITS BEFORE THE SHIT HIT THE FAN
FEB 2006 2145 K
JAN 2006 2217 K
DEC 2005 2068K
 
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Neubarth

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The collapse continues. In the case of housing and new building construction the collapse is equivalent to the depths of the Great Depression. So we will have to rename this Depression The Greatest Depression. With the strong increase in the past few months in Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims, we know it is getting worse regardless of the pretend Unemployment Numbers. Prepare for the worse. It is going to be a long hot summer with lots of campfires both inside the cities and without.
 

Toro

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I agree with Warren Buffett on this

The [manufactured homes] industry is in shambles for two reasons, the first of which must be lived with if the U.S. economy is to recover. This reason concerns U.S. housing starts (including apartment units). In 2009, starts were 554,000, by far the lowest number in the 50 years for which we have data. Paradoxically, this is good news.

People thought it was good news a few years back when housing starts – the supply side of the picture – were running about two million annually. But household formations – the demand side – only amounted to about 1.2 million. After a few years of such imbalances, the country unsurprisingly ended up with far too many houses.

There were three ways to cure this overhang: (1) blow up a lot of houses, a tactic similar to the destruction of autos that occurred with the “cash-for-clunkers” program; (2) speed up household formations by, say, encouraging teenagers to cohabitate, a program not likely to suffer from a lack of volunteers or; (3) reduce new housing starts to a number far below the rate of household formations.

Our country has wisely selected the third option, which means that within a year or so residential housing problems should largely be behind us, the exceptions being only high-value houses and those in certain localities where overbuilding was particularly egregious. Prices will remain far below “bubble” levels, of course, but for every seller (or lender) hurt by this there will be a buyer who benefits. Indeed, many families that couldn’t afford to buy an appropriate home a few years ago now find it well within their means because the bubble burst.

Calculated Risk: Buffett on Housing
 
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Neubarth

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I agree with Warren Buffett on this

The [manufactured homes] industry is in shambles for two reasons, the first of which must be lived with if the U.S. economy is to recover. This reason concerns U.S. housing starts (including apartment units). In 2009, starts were 554,000, by far the lowest number in the 50 years for which we have data. Paradoxically, this is good news.

People thought it was good news a few years back when housing starts – the supply side of the picture – were running about two million annually. But household formations – the demand side – only amounted to about 1.2 million. After a few years of such imbalances, the country unsurprisingly ended up with far too many houses.

There were three ways to cure this overhang: (1) blow up a lot of houses, a tactic similar to the destruction of autos that occurred with the “cash-for-clunkers” program; (2) speed up household formations by, say, encouraging teenagers to cohabitate, a program not likely to suffer from a lack of volunteers or; (3) reduce new housing starts to a number far below the rate of household formations.

Our country has wisely selected the third option, which means that within a year or so residential housing problems should largely be behind us, the exceptions being only high-value houses and those in certain localities where overbuilding was particularly egregious. Prices will remain far below “bubble” levels, of course, but for every seller (or lender) hurt by this there will be a buyer who benefits. Indeed, many families that couldn’t afford to buy an appropriate home a few years ago now find it well within their means because the bubble burst.

Calculated Risk: Buffett on Housing

I don't expect to see housing construction or building construction return that fast. We are still seeing a tremendous loss of jobs and that is going to be catastrophic for any hope of economic recovery. We do not have a recovery in progress regardless of what Washington says. We have a collapse still in progress, as I predicted, "Like a Slow Motion falling house of cards." It is happening before our very eyes.
 
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Neubarth said:
I don't expect to see housing construction or building construction return that fast. We are still seeing a tremendous loss of jobs and that is going to be catastrophic for any hope of economic recovery. We do not have a recovery in progress regardless of what Washington says. We have a collapse still in progress, as I predicted, "Like a Slow Motion falling house of cards." It is happening before our very eyes.

I agree.

I live in Florida, where you can stack two pieces of wood together and blow stucco on the outside, and sell it as a summer home. For godsakes we aren’t selling homes in FLORIDA! WDF!
Now there is very little work.
Most of us (that could) chased the hurricanes and floods this past year.

Locally, Home values have dropped.

Contractors compete with rising material prices, as the dollar declines (I would suppose). , and customers still want contracted bids from you like it was ten years ago. If you wont do it cheap there are 33 others that will.

Paint alone has increased 20%

Hourly workers drag their feet on jobs just to try to keep working, can’t really hate ‘em for it either.

I have NEVER seen nothin like this.
 
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mayya555

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Neubarth said:
I don't expect to see housing construction or building construction return that fast. We are still seeing a tremendous loss of jobs and that is going to be catastrophic for any hope of economic recovery. We do not have a recovery in progress regardless of what Washington says. We have a collapse still in progress, as I predicted, "Like a Slow Motion falling house of cards." It is happening before our very eyes.

I agree.

I live in Florida, where you can stack two pieces of wood together and blow stucco on the outside, and sell it as a summer home. For godsakes we aren’t selling homes in FLORIDA! WDF!
Now there is very little work.
Most of us (that could) chased the hurricanes and floods this past year.

Locally, Home values have dropped.

Contractors compete with rising material prices, as the dollar declines (I would suppose). , and customers still want contracted bids from you like it was ten years ago. If you wont do it cheap there are 33 others that will.

Paint alone has increased 20%

Hourly workers drag their feet on jobs just to try to keep working, can’t really hate ‘em for it either.

I have NEVER seen nothin like this.

It's so late, I'm so tired and this all is so depressing. Give me some light in a tunnel!
 

sparky

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I personally think congress should cut their staff by the same percentage as the unemployment rate.
And their office budgets as well.
Share the pain or we will have no gain.
We have learned virtually nothing so far in this great recession.
And still think that more of the same that got us into this mess will fix things.

if there was ever a nail/head post here.....

~S~
 

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