Bond Market Implosion

[william the wie]

The US and most of the rest of the world have had negative real after tax interest rates for decades and the result has been:

The 1987, 2000 and 2008 crashes in the stock market.

The 1991 and 2006 crashes in the Real Estate Market.

And the current crash in commodities, primarily in the ongoing crash of oil.

.So, prior to the election a minimum of $0,5 trillion in commercial bonds will be written off in the bond market just in the oil patch.

The Muni market started it's crash with PR already IL will either put together a plan to avoid bond default or it won't. Then there is the problem that the plan will most likely backfire with massive capital flight. That will trigger bankruptcy as will whiffing the ball on putting together a plan.

This is a political season so there will be a massive effort to bandage over the problem and put the blame on the other party. But my question is that even possible?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

The US and most of the rest of the world have had negative real after tax interest rates for decades and the result has been:

The 1987, 2000 and 2008 crashes in the stock market.

The 1991 and 2006 crashes in the Real Estate Market.

And the current crash in commodities, primarily in the ongoing crash of oil.

.So, prior to the election a minimum of $0,5 trillion in commercial bonds will be written off in the bond market just in the oil patch.

The Muni market started it's crash with PR already IL will either put together a plan to avoid bond default or it won't. Then there is the problem that the plan will most likely backfire with massive capital flight. That will trigger bankruptcy as will whiffing the ball on putting together a plan.

This is a political season so there will be a massive effort to bandage over the problem and put the blame on the other party. But my question is that even possible?

The US and most of the rest of the world have had negative real after tax interest rates for decades and the result has been:

Nice generalization with no back up there.

So, prior to the election a minimum of $0,5 trillion in commercial bonds will be written off in the bond market just in the oil patch.

How big is the "commercial bond" market? Is $500 billion a lot or a little? How do you know it will be "written off"?

IL will either put together a plan to avoid bond default or it won't. Then there is the problem that the plan will most likely backfire with massive capital flight.

Capital flight from Illinois? Why? Will they begin taxing Illinois capital?

 

[Jiya]

I think by 2020 it will become a largest economy. Can you tell me about Risk Management Assets in china?

 

[william the wie]

I think by 2020 it will become a largest economy. Can you tell me about Risk Management Assets in china?

Unlikely in the extreme China is using the Japanese development model so it is screwed.

the labor force fraction is shrinking.

Capital flight is more massive than it ever was in Japan likewise emigration.

Debt levels are insane and are likely to make China the bigger and badder Japan.

India is coming up its tailpipes

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

The US and most of the rest of the world have had negative real after tax interest rates for decades and the result has been:

The 1987, 2000 and 2008 crashes in the stock market.

The 1991 and 2006 crashes in the Real Estate Market.

And the current crash in commodities, primarily in the ongoing crash of oil.

.So, prior to the election a minimum of $0,5 trillion in commercial bonds will be written off in the bond market just in the oil patch.

The Muni market started it's crash with PR already IL will either put together a plan to avoid bond default or it won't. Then there is the problem that the plan will most likely backfire with massive capital flight. That will trigger bankruptcy as will whiffing the ball on putting together a plan.

This is a political season so there will be a massive effort to bandage over the problem and put the blame on the other party. But my question is that even possible?

So, prior to the election a minimum of $0,5 trillion in commercial bonds will be written off in the bond market just in the oil patch.

Did these bonds get written off yet? Link?

 

[waltky]

Wall Street off to a good start...

U.S. stocks jump along with bond yields after Trump shock, peso falls
Wed Nov 9, 2016 | New York Wall Street stocks rose sharply on Wednesday, bouncing from a dramatic overnight sell-off, while the Mexican peso was battered as investors reacted to Donald Trump's surprise win in the U.S. presidential election.

While equity investors' election night panic turned to daytime jubilation, bond investors worried Trump's protectionist policies would ultimately weaken the dollar and hike inflation. U.S. 30-year Treasury bond yields gained almost 25 basis points in their sharpest rise in more than five years. Benchmark U.S. 10-year note yields also advanced, climbing 21 basis points to their highest since January in their biggest increase in more than three years.

The U.S. dollar rose across the board and hit its highest against the Japanese yen in nearly four months. It gained support from the equity turnaround and the yield spreads, said Kathy Lien, managing director at BK Asset Management in New York. The Mexican peso recouped some losses after falling to a record low. The currency has been vulnerable to Trump's threats to rip up a free trade agreement with Mexico and to tax money sent home by migrants to pay for building a border wall.

The three major U.S. stock indexes rose as investors piled into financial and healthcare stocks on hopes of weaker regulation than was expected from a Hillary Clinton presidency. "The fact the Republicans control all three branches of government made a lot of people think that some of Trump's ideas that were pro-business - lower taxes and lower regulation - could actually be passed," Rick Meckler, president of investment firm LibertyView Capital Management in Jersey City, New Jersey.

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