Birth Rates

[Concerned American]

I'm going to assume you have no children and really don't want them (especially the expense of having them) as well as the routine maintenance and care of children.

Is that correct?

You fail to take into account those families with five, six and more children. My wife's extended family, 3 men are responsible for a family of over 50 in one generation.

 

[Correll]

Then thats simply the way it goes. Not a huge deal. ....

It's a huge deal. Your denial is dumb.

 

[initforme]

It's a huge deal. Your denial is dumb.

As i said in perhaps 30 to 50 years maybe it stops dropping. I look at my youngest son. Recently divorced, thankfully. 55 years old and retired. No kids. Had he had kids he might have to still work until 65 or some way too old age. Its all a trade off.

 

[initforme]

We have a real problem in most of the industrialized world.

Birth rates for women.

Currently we need a 2.7 live births per woman in the USA (or any nation in reality) to achieve stable populations. Meaning we aren't getting more crowded but we aren't going extinct either.

Currently we have a 1.7 birth rate for women.

Meaning every woman capable need to plan on having three children minimum....likely more.

How do we think this concept (a reality) is going to play out in the USA?

If you are a woman replying on this forum does the idea appeal to you?

If you are a man replying....how does the idea of fathering 3-4 children appeal to you?

Have you had any children? How many?

Every woman capable needs to have 3 children? Never going to happen. Plan b?

 

[Correll]

As i said in perhaps 30 to 50 years maybe it stops dropping. I look at my youngest son. Recently divorced, thankfully. 55 years old and retired. No kids. Had he had kids he might have to still work until 65 or some way too old age. Its all a trade off.

And he got the bad end of that trade.

 

[initforme]

And he got the bad end of that trade.

Thats for him to decide. He was in a miserable marriage for 20 years. Never happy, never smiled. We wondered what was wrong. Once he got divorced. His whole world changed for the better. What a nasty woman his wife was. Thank god for divorce.

 

[braalian]

Have kids if you want kids, don’t if you don’t.

Yes, some childless adults go on to regret never having kids. But at the same time, there’s also people who regret having them.

It’s a rare person who has zero regrets

 

[initforme]

Bingo. Well said. Those that believe one Should do one thing or the other should just clench their lips. They have nothing to offer.

 

[JohnDB]

We are at the point where if you want kids you need to have a minimum of 4 and 6 or more would be better.

It's that's what it requires to catch up.

 

[Dekster]

We have a real problem in most of the industrialized world.

Birth rates for women.

Currently we need a 2.7 live births per woman in the USA (or any nation in reality) to achieve stable populations. Meaning we aren't getting more crowded but we aren't going extinct either.

Currently we have a 1.7 birth rate for women.

Meaning every woman capable need to plan on having three children minimum....likely more.

How do we think this concept (a reality) is going to play out in the USA?

If you are a woman replying on this forum does the idea appeal to you?

If you are a man replying....how does the idea of fathering 3-4 children appeal to you?

Have you had any children? How many?

I have 3 and we don't need to to worry about population. Declining population is a good thing.

 

[initforme]

We are at the point where if you want kids you need to have a minimum of 4 and 6 or more would be better.

It's that's what it requires to catch up.

Well then we arent going to catch up. .

Whats plan b?

 

[initforme]

I have 3 and we don't need to to worry about population. Declining population is a good thing.

Very interesting.

 

[JohnDB]

I have 3 and we don't need to to worry about population. Declining population is a good thing.

Nope....
Our entire social and economic structure is built upon a growing population.

It is complicated. But things like Social Security and Medicare are built upon an expectation of a growing population...that's the simplest example I can give....but its much much more than that.

Every large industry is built upon a growing economic model....the expectation that you can hire workers. But if there are no people to hire....you can't build or create anything. No taxes are collected from economic activity and our entire society crumbles apart.
Sure, we know how to milk cows and retail it but unless you have a cow, going to the store to pick up a half gallon doesn't work anymore.

We are already seeing some supply chain issues already. It's not going to get any better as time goes by. As labor gets tighter and tighter there's going to be even more supply chain issues. From parts for transportation (car and truck parts backordered) to food being distributed in grocery stores.
A society that is crumbling does not end well....the weakest die miserably and painfully. The strongest aren't much better. Guilt eats at them like any case of PTSD does. When a fiat money system ends....it never ends well.

This is why we need to create incentives for children in various ways to ease the burden of costs. That's the least we can do for the biggest gain.

 

[initforme]

Nope....
Our entire social and economic structure is built upon a growing population.

It is complicated. But things like Social Security and Medicare are built upon an expectation of a growing population...that's the simplest example I can give....but its much much more than that.

Every large industry is built upon a growing economic model....the expectation that you can hire workers. But if there are no people to hire....you can't build or create anything. No taxes are collected from economic activity and our entire society crumbles apart.
Sure, we know how to milk cows and retail it but unless you have a cow, going to the store to pick up a half gallon doesn't work anymore.

We are already seeing some supply chain issues already. It's not going to get any better as time goes by. As labor gets tighter and tighter there's going to be even more supply chain issues. From parts for transportation (car and truck parts backordered) to food being distributed in grocery stores.
A society that is crumbling does not end well....the weakest die miserably and painfully. The strongest aren't much better. Guilt eats at them like any case of PTSD does. When a fiat money system ends....it never ends well.

This is why we need to create incentives for children in various ways to ease the burden of costs. That's the least we can do for the biggest gain.

Supy chain issues are easily solved by increasing wages. The corporations are not owed a labor force. Let them figure it out.

 

[JohnDB]

Supy chain issues are easily solved by increasing wages. The corporations are not owed a labor force. Let them figure it out.

Increased wages only goes so far....until there are literally no longer competent people to hire.

For example, if you need a CDL local delivery or trash truck driver....you need someone without chemical dependency or a record with a felony (including DUI) to pass a test and not have any other major health issues like HBP, diabetes or epilepsy.

Now the list of available people possible to hire is cut in half....then exclude those without proper English reading skills and it cuts out a third of the remaining.

Now you are paying top dollar for trash pickup service...and still cannot hire a truck driver to deliver gasoline to gas stations or groceries to stores.

 

[initforme]

Increased wages only goes so far....until there are literally no longer competent people to hire.

For example, if you need a CDL local delivery or trash truck driver....you need someone without chemical dependency or a record with a felony (including DUI) to pass a test and not have any other major health issues like HBP, diabetes or epilepsy.

Now the list of available people possible to hire is cut in half....then exclude those without proper English reading skills and it cuts out a third of the remaining.

Now you are paying top dollar for trash pickup service...and still cannot hire a truck driver to deliver gasoline to gas stations or groceries to stores.

Oh well. K sara sara whatever will be will be. Thats on the corporate leaders i guess.

 

[JohnDB]

Oh well. K sara sara whatever will be will be. Thats on the corporate leaders i guess.

It also affects small businesses as well.
Then there's the police and national security issues....as in needing soldiers.

There are many more worse things than simply dying.

Or our Government could just incentivize having children....
Which would reverse the whole thing.

 

[initforme]

It also affects small businesses as well.
Then there's the police and national security issues....as in needing soldiers.

There are many more worse things than simply dying.

Or our Government could just incentivize having children....
Which would reverse the whole thing.

Bad idea. How about those who had kids a few years ago? Better give them money too. Maybe go back 25 years or so and reimburse all those since.

 

[JohnDB]

Bad idea and completely unnecessary but some incentives CAN work that way.

Subsidized mortgages for each child....where interest is paid by the Government....
Subsidized childcare....
Tax credits for each child. Double exemptions for pre-natal and birth expenses.

They have already made in vitro fertilization practically free.

Plus there's been some advances in post 40 conception so the risk of down syndrome is reduced. So successful parents or late parents can have children.

Then on the educational front....
Limits on total fees and tuition a university can charge for STEM degrees. Instead of Government loans just higher taxes for individuals going on the Government dime. We need chemists for domestic chip production and material refinement.

And a minimum level of competency for graduates. (There are some schools where the graduates can't really read their diplomas)


Lots of things CAN be done and many should be done.
We NEED a growing and educated and skilled workforce.

Or we can die slowly and painfully....

 

[initforme]

Bad idea and completely unnecessary but some incentives CAN work that way.

Subsidized mortgages for each child....where interest is paid by the Government....
Subsidized childcare....
Tax credits for each child. Double exemptions for pre-natal and birth expenses.

They have already made in vitro fertilization practically free.

Plus there's been some advances in post 40 conception so the risk of down syndrome is reduced. So successful parents or late parents can have children.

Then on the educational front....
Limits on total fees and tuition a university can charge for STEM degrees. Instead of Government loans just higher taxes for individuals going on the Government dime. We need chemists for domestic chip production and material refinement.

And a minimum level of competency for graduates. (There are some schools where the graduates can't really read their diplomas)


Lots of things CAN be done and many should be done.
We NEED a growing and educated and skilled workforce.

Or we can die slowly and painfully....

All that will cost tax dollars. We are already supposedly in debt. The wish list will have trouble getting support. Perhaps 30 or 50 years down the road things will change.