Google it. It is well known.
The same better just put another $13 million dollar bet on Trump....on top of the $30 million bet.
Donald Trump, Elon Musk and CNN have cited election predictions from Polymarket, a betting site where crypto enthusiasts have wagered more than $100 million on who will win the presidency.
www.nytimes.com
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But Mr. Trump’s apparent lead may be an illusion. The odds on Polymarket began favoring him this month after just four accounts, with user names like Fredi9999 and PrincessCaro, bet more than $30 million on a Trump victory, according to an analysis of transaction records by Chaos Labs, a crypto data provider. Polymarket
said on Thursday that all four accounts were controlled by one person, whom it described as a French national with a financial services background, without revealing the person’s identity.
The election betting has placed enormous scrutiny on Polymarket, a start-up based in New York that allows people to wager crypto on everything from sports to Taylor Swift’s romantic prospects. The legality of gambling on politics
remains murky in the United States. Polymarket stopped offering its services to U.S.-based customers in 2022, after
settling with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for operating without registration.
The bets that bolstered Mr. Trump’s odds have raised alarms that Polymarket could be vulnerable to manipulation. The trader who placed the wagers
might have been “willing to take the losses in order to change public perceptions,” said Rajiv Sethi, an economics professor at Barnard College. “And possibly have an effect on things like donations and morale and volunteer support and turnout.”
The frenzy over Polymarket’s election odds has also prompted suspicions that gamblers may be circumventing the ban on U.S. users. A former employee, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic, said it was “an open secret” that U.S. customers could make bets by using virtual private networks, which obscure an internet user’s true location.
But the attention has also fueled Polymarket’s business and set it apart from other prediction websites that offer betting markets on politics. The start-up, which is backed by an investment firm of the conservative tech mogul Peter Thiel, is close to completing a new $50 million financing round that would value it at $300 million, a person with knowledge of the matter said. In July, the election prognostication expert Nate Silver
joined the company as an adviser.
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On Oct. 11, Mr. Trump
posted a screenshot of Polymarket that showed he had a 55.5 percent chance of winning the election. On Monday, he posted a new screenshot showing that his chances had increased to 64 percent.
The surge of attention has made Polymarket vulnerable to bad actors, said Cristian Perez Ramirez, who worked at the company from 2021 to 2023. “People with enough motivation and enough capital can easily manipulate it,” he said.
Polymarket’s spokesman said the user who placed the election bets “has agreed not to open further accounts without notice.”