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‘Axis of sitting ducks’:
Why Hezbollah cannot afford to defend Iran from Israel’s attacks
With its arsenal decimated and pressure to disarm, the Lebanese group has little capability to support its ally
‘Axis of sitting ducks’: Why Hezbollah cannot afford to defend Iran from Israel’s attacks | The National
With its arsenal decimated and pressure to disarm, the Lebanese group has little capability to support its ally
www.thenationalnews.com
Lebanese Hezbollah’s military defeat after 14 months of conflict with Israel has left it politically and militarily constrained and in no position to support its ally Iran in any future confrontation with Israel, analysts, military experts, and western diplomats told The National.
Israel’s deadly overnight strike on Iran decapitated much of Tehran’s military and nuclear leadership. And a broader regional offensive by Israel over the past two years has severely weakened Iranian proxies across the region, leaving Hezbollah unable to come to its sponsor’s aid.
Under normal circumstances “Hezbollah would definitely respond to the Iranian attack right away,” according to Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut and an expert on Iran’s proxies. “But now I think we are in a different phase and it's a very defeated organisation struggling to rebuild after the hits it has taken.
~Snip~
Diplomatic sources previously told The National: “Hezbollah thought it would be like 2006, and that the vague terms of the ceasefire would work in their favour,” the source said, referring to the agreement that ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, and which forms the basis of the current truce. “But this is not 2006.”
Lebanon has effectively developed into a new status quo in the days following its November 2024 ceasefire with Israel: Israel continues to occupy five points of Lebanese territory as it bombs parts of Lebanon on a near-daily basis. Hezbollah, militarily depleted and wary of inflicting further war on its population, has largely remained unresponsive.
“Hezbollah is in a difficult position. Iran is in need of support from its closest ally and they are incapable of delivering,” he added.
According to Mr Hage Ali, “Hezbollah can launch an attack for sure, and kill Israelis. But the question is what will happen next for them. They can’t ensure there won’t be any follow up attack [by Isreal]. It’s not an easy one for them.”
Meanwhile, Iran – isolated, bereft of its once ample proxy forces, and scrambling to restructure its command structure after the Israeli attack – has been left to fend for itself against Israel.
“Iran has joined the axis of sitting ducks,” said Mr Hage Ali.
Commentary:
Hard to join the fight when most of your fingers and you've been emasculated when you answered your pager.
There are procedures and mechanisms in place for Israel to take care of any significant Hezbollah activity in Lebanon. When something happens, or is detected, the official Lebanese government attempts to address it. If they cannot resolve the situation, they notify Israel, and Israel takes care of it.
Summing up the article in three sentences.
- Hezbollah went to war with Israel.
- Hezbollah lost their war, as their cell phones exploded in a most amusing display and at the same time were decimated militarily.
- Those not dead do not want to die.
The question most importantly asked in political circles is whether the people of Iran will rise up and topple the Ayatollah's Regime and create a new democracy in Iran?
