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At 137 Billion € the UK is running 6 times bigger govt. deficit than Germany

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ekrem

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waltky

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Who gonna come out on top in Europe?
:eusa_eh:
Who will dictate Europe's future?
16 November 2012 - French President Francois Hollande is set to have a key say in dictating the future of the euro
Which country holds the key to the euro's fate? Which of the 17 members will turn out to be the "pivot state" - the country around which the future of the eurozone will turn? I spent most of last weekend thinking about the future of Europe with economists, politicians and senior policy makers at a two-day seminar organised by the Centre for European Reform. (I know, I get all the fun.) One way or another, this question kept on coming up - maybe because it's a useful way to think about the different paths which the euro could take from here.

Two years ago, you might have said Greece was the pivot state. Policy makers were convinced that a Greek exit from the euro would be the end of the whole thing. The effort to save the euro boiled down to a massive effort to keep Greece in. Not any more. I don't speak to many City folk or European policy makers who are confident that Greece can stay in the single currency. But I would say a majority are fairly convinced that the euro will survive - even if some of them wish it were not so.

Ask the same question now, you might get "Spain" as the answer. The new confidence around the euro stems largely from the ECB's commitment to Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) - to acting as a backstop for countries in the markets by buying their government debt. Spain is the country that programme was designed to help. So how and when it gets that help might well determine how this stage of the rescue strategy works out.

Longer term, though, you have to wonder whether we will continue to be quite so focussed on Spain. After all, it's not Spain that is responsible for 57% of the sovereign debt of the troubled eurozone economies - it's Italy. And come the spring, Italy will be looking for a new prime minister. In their punchy new book, Democrisis, David Roche and Bob McKee say Italy is the "circuit-breaker" that could make a lot of the crisis go away: "Italy represents more than half of every form of measurable economic contagion of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis... If the markets believe Italy is 'saveable', a virtuous outcome is possible and contagion will go into reverse."

More BBC News - Who will dictate Europe's future?
 
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ekrem

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Who gonna come out on top in Europe?
:eusa_eh:
Who will dictate Europe's future?
16 November 2012 - French President Francois Hollande is set to have a key say in dictating the future of the euro
Which country holds the key to the euro's fate? Which of the 17 members will turn out to be the "pivot state" - the country around which the future of the eurozone will turn? I spent most of last weekend thinking about the future of Europe with economists, politicians and senior policy makers at a two-day seminar organised by the Centre for European Reform. (I know, I get all the fun.) One way or another, this question kept on coming up - maybe because it's a useful way to think about the different paths which the euro could take from here.

Two years ago, you might have said Greece was the pivot state. Policy makers were convinced that a Greek exit from the euro would be the end of the whole thing. The effort to save the euro boiled down to a massive effort to keep Greece in. Not any more. I don't speak to many City folk or European policy makers who are confident that Greece can stay in the single currency. But I would say a majority are fairly convinced that the euro will survive - even if some of them wish it were not so.

Ask the same question now, you might get "Spain" as the answer. The new confidence around the euro stems largely from the ECB's commitment to Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) - to acting as a backstop for countries in the markets by buying their government debt. Spain is the country that programme was designed to help. So how and when it gets that help might well determine how this stage of the rescue strategy works out.

Longer term, though, you have to wonder whether we will continue to be quite so focussed on Spain. After all, it's not Spain that is responsible for 57% of the sovereign debt of the troubled eurozone economies - it's Italy. And come the spring, Italy will be looking for a new prime minister. In their punchy new book, Democrisis, David Roche and Bob McKee say Italy is the "circuit-breaker" that could make a lot of the crisis go away: "Italy represents more than half of every form of measurable economic contagion of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis... If the markets believe Italy is 'saveable', a virtuous outcome is possible and contagion will go into reverse."

More BBC News - Who will dictate Europe's future?

Germany has a window of opportunity.
But it won't last long because Germany is ageing very fast and population will decrease.
German society will prefer the Black-Forest to be the only thing black in Germany.

In mid-term France is going to dominate because it is more open to "fresh blood" and the Africans produce children in France.
 
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ekrem

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Population pyramid for Germany (1910, 2005).
Men left, women right.
germanyqi.png
 

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