And still more government lies!

[Neubarth]

As you know, the Government has been lying for the past two years about unemployment claims. They take the Unemployment Insurance claims (Which are an actual number of people who have filed for Unemployment Insurance in the fifty states) and then add numbers for the ratio of people who did not apply but might be waiting to do so and then subtract any number that they do not like and then add in a fudge factor to confuse the sheeple public to make them think that Unemployment is going DOWN. If you look at the raw data, you will see that it is going UP and UP.

They take real hard numbers and screw them up and then lie like hell about it. They have been doing this in ABSOLUTELY HORRIBLE fashion since Obama took office. Please write your congressmen about getting the DOL to tell the truth!!!!

Here are the actual numbers from the DOL site.

INITIAL CLAIMS KEEP ON GOING UP AND UP AND UP week after week!

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 449,375 in the week ending Oct. 3, an increase of 3,757 from the previous week.

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 443,694 in the week ending Sept. 26, an increase of 5,878 from the previous week.

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 434,358 in the week ending Sept. 19, an increase of 21,966 from the previous week.

U.S. Department of Labor: Employment & Training Administration (ETA) News Releases

 

[Mad Scientist]

Well, thankfully we have the alternate media to keep us informed, at least until the Fairness Doctrine gets passed.

Thanks for posting that Neubarth.

 

[pinqy]

Ok, Neubarth will never listen or understand, so for everyone else, here it goes.. Looking at the UI weekly claims report

first the number Neubarth claims is the actual number is not the actual number...it's the advance number as not all reporting is in by the time of the release.

Second, his claim of lies doesn't make much sense when both the adjusted and unadjusted numbers appear in the same report. Why report a lie and give the truth at the same time? Not much of an attempt to deceive, is it?

Third, his claim of lies still doesn't make sense when you see that the seasonally adjusted number of claims is HIGHER than the unadjusted numbers.

Fourth, while he's looking at week to week and saying the government is understating the change, he didn't look at the "prior year" numbers to see that the Seasonally adjusted numbers say initial claims have gone up 43,000 since last year while the unadjusted numbers (his "real" numbers) only went up 22,586. So his claim is basically that the government is lying in order to make the month-month change look better, but the overall level and yearly change look worse. Does this make sense to anyone not suffering from dementia?

Fifth, he's outright lying and knows he's lying when he says

They take the Unemployment Insurance claims ...and then add numbers for the ratio of people who did not apply but might be waiting to do so and then subtract any number that they do not like and then add in a fudge factor...

What they do is apply seasonal adjustment to the figures to see the underlying trends.

Here's the problem: for many things, such as employment, prices, school attendence, money spent on entertainment etc, there are normal predictable variations throughout the year. If employment always goes up in late November/early December, you're faced with the question of whether the employment situation is actually getting better or whether it's just the normal seasonal hiring. It's like trying to measure the water level when the tides are changing...if the last time you measured it was low tide, but now it's high tide, you know the water level has gone up because of the tide, but you don't know if the real water level has gone up, down, or stayed the same. So based on past trends, seasonal adjustment is applied to look at what the level would be if there were no seasonal ups or downs. It allows economists to see what the real trends are, undisguised by normal fluctuations. Sometimes the SA gives the numbers as higher, sometimes lower.

The numbers aren't meant for the "sheeple" but meant for professional economists and others who want to keep an eye on overall trends.

 

[Toro]

Things are getting better.

 

[Mike Mitrosky]

Uncle Sam cooks the books!

 

[pinqy]

Uncle Sam cooks the books!

And your evidence is?????

 

[Neubarth]

Ok, Neubarth will never listen or understand, so for everyone else, here it goes.. Looking at the UI weekly claims report

first the number Neubarth claims is the actual number is not the actual number...it's the advance number as not all reporting is in by the time of the release.

This is a blatant lie and you know it. I have addressed the fact that the numbers are always amended. You are nothing but a pathological liar when you make up lies lie the above.

Second, his claim of lies doesn't make much sense when both the adjusted and unadjusted numbers appear in the same report. Why report a lie and give the truth at the same time? Not much of an attempt to deceive, is it?

The report at the DOL site is of no consequence and you know it you damned liar. The report that is quoted in all of the papers is the artificial number, not the tabulated number you pathological lying scumbag. It is that artificial number that is intended todeceive. With it they can claim that unemployment is going down for week after week while it is going up week after week. Sure people could go to the DOL site, but nobody does. They just accept the crazy lies of the government.

Third, his claim of lies still doesn't make sense when you see that the seasonally adjusted number of claims is HIGHER than the unadjusted numbers.

And again you lie. AS I have said over and over and over and over, it is not the number even though it is totally bogus, it is the report that unemployment claims are going down when they are going up that is the issue.

Fourth, while he's looking at week to week and saying the government is understating the change, he didn't look at the "prior year" numbers to see that the Seasonally adjusted numbers say initial claims have gone up 43,000 since last year while the unadjusted numbers (his "real" numbers) only went up 22,586. So his claim is basically that the government is lying in order to make the month-month change look better, but the overall level and yearly change look worse. Does this make sense to anyone not suffering from dementia?

And again you lie you royal ass. The point is that the overall level and yearly change IS WORSE. YET, the Federal Report says that everything is getting better. They are damned lying sacks of shit, just like you are.

Fifth, he's outright lying and knows he's lying when he says

They take the Unemployment Insurance claims ...and then add numbers for the ratio of people who did not apply but might be waiting to do so and then subtract any number that they do not like and then add in a fudge factor...

What they do is apply seasonal adjustment to the figures to see the underlying trends.

Here's the problem: for many things, such as employment, prices, school attendence, money spent on entertainment etc, there are normal predictable variations throughout the year. If employment always goes up in late November/early December, you're faced with the question of whether the employment situation is actually getting better or whether it's just the normal seasonal hiring. It's like trying to measure the water level when the tides are changing...if the last time you measured it was low tide, but now it's high tide, you know the water level has gone up because of the tide, but you don't know if the real water level has gone up, down, or stayed the same. So based on past trends, seasonal adjustment is applied to look at what the level would be if there were no seasonal ups or downs. It allows economists to see what the real trends are, undisguised by normal fluctuations. Sometimes the SA gives the numbers as higher, sometimes lower.

The numbers aren't meant for the "sheeple" but meant for professional economists and others who want to keep an eye on overall trends.

SUPER-ANAL-IGNORAMUS-MAXIMUS, Still trying all those insane lies to delude the ignorant? The deceit of the Federal Government is so obvious to the most casual observer. I have pointed it out thousands of times as I speak across the nation.

You make yourself look so damn foolish and then call an honorable man like me a liar. Shame! Name calling, name calling and further name calling, yet you have never disputed my claims. You just lie like hell because your genetically defective brain has you believing that chronic pathological lying is normal behavior.

Let's set the record straight. When you lie like you do, you are most obvious and clearly mentally unstable. Please, please get psychiatric help.

 

[Mike Mitrosky]

Uncle Sam cooks the books!

And your evidence is?????

Evidence is all around us.. Theyre constantly changing the components of indices to make things like unemployment look better, inflation look better, debt and deficits look better than they really are.. Geesh.. The true numbers for these things are way worse than whats being reported because every couple of years they lower the bar..

Lets look at one now.. the GDP. The GDP... Whatever happened to the GNP?

When I was younger everything was always GNP, Gross National Product.. Then one day years ago I noticed everything had changed to GDP, Gross Domestic Product.

What do you think the difference is? What does GDP show (or hide) that GNP would reveal?

 

[Neubarth]

In the week ending July 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 554,000, an increase of 30,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 524,000…..The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 580,944 in the week ending July 18

In the week ending July 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 522,000, a decrease of 47,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 569,000….The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 667,534 in the week ending July 11

In the week ending July 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 565,000, a decrease of 52,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 617,000……The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 577,506 in the week ending July 4
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
To see how corrupt the Federal Government is, all one has to do is look at the three weeks above. Note that in week July 11, the raw number of people filing for UI was 667,534, an increase over the previous week of 90,000, YET, it was reported in the official news release to the public as a DECREASE in Unemployment Insurance claims. This is normal government gobbledegook when you look at following weeks in which the Fed Gov reported that there were small increases in UI claims.

Hummmmmmm???? If we are in the season period where we are adding to the numbers to balance out the deception, why for just one week did the Fed Gov SUBTRACT????

This kind of shit pot does not hold water, and anybody who looks past the news release that just quotes the Fed Gov artificial and didcombobulated number CAN CLEARLY SEE the manipulation.

SUPER-ANAL-IGNORAMUS-MAXIMUS just ignores this kind of crap and tells you that you have to believe the Fed Gov numbers. Only a fool would accept crap like this as shown above.

SUPER-ANAL-IGNORAMUS-MAXIMUS needs to look at the crap that the FED GOV puts out to see how wrong he has been. He won't admit it, of course, and will continue to insult people who are honest and morally straight by calling them horrible names. He should be placed in a psychiatric institution and there banned from all use of the Internet.

 

[Neubarth]

I just found out that SUPER-ANAL-IGNORAMUS-MAXIMUS's real first name is THUD, spelled with all capital letters.

You see he was born in the backwoods of Arkansas about 8 miles east of Mena, Arkansas. His family was poor white trash and they were very, very poor and could only afford the birth assistance of a local midwife/witchdoctor by the name of Mama Witchfire. Well, Mama Witchfire was 82 years old when she delivered SUPER-ANAL-IGNORAMUS-MAXIMUS, and when she pulled him out he was slippery and she dropped him on his head on the floor ("flo" as they call it in Arkansas) and his head made a loud THUD when he hit the flo.

His Paw heard that and said, "That the first sound my son done made, so that be his name."

Ever since then THUD has had cognition problems, but people say if you ignore his irrational behavior you can stand him, "If's you ignore his craziness, he is a durn right tolerable kind o' guy."

 

[truthsaga]

Unemployment is actually closer to 20% if you take in the people who have part - time jobs just to make ends meet and people who just gave up.

How is a jobless recovery possible? Stock market moves up, gold moves up, and the dollar continues to drop. Seems like a lot of people are moving away from the fiat paper to own actual assets.

 

[pinqy]

Uncle Sam cooks the books!

And your evidence is?????

Evidence is all around us.. Theyre constantly changing the components of indices to make things like unemployment look better, inflation look better, debt and deficits look better than they really are.. Geesh.. The true numbers for these things are way worse than whats being reported because every couple of years they lower the bar..

Perhaps you're not aware of what "evidence" is. More assertions does not constitute evidence. First unemployment is not an index, and it's defintion has had one minor change since 1967. Not really constantly. Price indexes haven't been changed often either. Besides, you would have to show that the previous methodology was better and that the only reason for change was to guarantee "better" numbers. The CPI was overstated in some parts and understated in others. Pricing computers threw the numbers off.

Lets look at one now.. the GDP. The GDP... Whatever happened to the GNP?

When I was younger everything was always GNP, Gross National Product.. Then one day years ago I noticed everything had changed to GDP, Gross Domestic Product.

What do you think the difference is? What does GDP show (or hide) that GNP would reveal?

The difference is that GNP measures all output by US companies in or outside the US and excludes foreign companies within the US. That's not really a good measure of US output. GDP measures everything within the US, and excludes everything outside, regardless of ownership. Flows from foreign companies to outside the US can be accounted for, but the GDP shows a better picture of what's going on within the US.

 

[pinqy]

This is a blatant lie and you know it. I have addressed the fact that the numbers are always amended. You are nothing but a pathological liar when you make up lies lie the above.

Not in that post you didn't. You said it was the "actual number." But it is not the actual number, it is the preliminary number. Do you not understand your own words? Actual means actual...not preliminary.

The report at the DOL site is of no consequence and you know it you damned liar.

What exactly was a lie? You keep calling me a liar, but you have NEVER shown me in a single lie. My statement was that both the not seasonally adjusted numbers and the seasonally adjusted numbers are both released in the same report. Is that a lie? I also said that claiming the numbers were meant to deceive doesn't make any sense if they put the truth in the very same report. Is that a lie? The DOL report is very much of consequence...that's what the economists and people who actually work with these numbers use.

The report that is quoted in all of the papers is the artificial number, not the tabulated number you pathological lying scumbag.

Sure, because that's the number that shows the real underlying trend, undistorted by seasonally variation. It's the more accurate number to look at trends. I don't expect you to understand that, though.

It

is that artificial number that is intended todeceive. With it they can claim that unemployment is going down for week after week while it is going up week after week. Sure people could go to the DOL site, but nobody does. They just accept the crazy lies of the government.

It is not intended to deceive. It's intended to correct seaonal variations. Of course people go to the DOL site. Anyone who actually uses the numbers has to because the media never reports the full story. Oh, and how exactly do you acount for the times when the seasonal adjustment numbers are worse than the unadjusted numbers.

And again you lie you royal ass. The point is that the overall level and yearly change IS WORSE. YET, the Federal Report says that everything is getting better. They are damned lying sacks of shit, just like you are.

Show your math. The yearly change is not as bad with the unadjusted numbers. The unadjusted claims only went up 22,586 while the seasonlly adjusted claims went up 43,000 . It's right there on the DOL site.


Why do you resort to so many insults? You never even try to actually adress the science or math of my posts. You keep claiming lie, but have never shown one. And accusing ME of name calling? Do want to do a count of insults and name calling? Really?

 

[Neubarth]

Why do you resort to so many insults? You never even try to actually adress the science or math of my posts. You keep claiming lie, but have never shown one. And accusing ME of name calling? Do want to do a count of insults and name calling? Really?

You are the most blatant pathological liar I have ever run across. Lie after lie after lie after lie. The Federal numbers are damned lies and you are a damned liar. That is all there is to it. I have shown you over and over and over again. The numbers do not jive with reality. And still you lie and lie and lie about it.

The "actual numbers" are the numbers as reported up to date of the release on the DOL site. You know that. The False numbers or bogus numbers as I have identified them are numbers that are made up out of thin air. If the Fed Gov wants to increase them, they do. If the Fed Gov wants to decrease them, they do. It has absolutely nothing to do with seasonal adjustment. If it did, why then did the Damned Fed Gov add to one week in July and subtract from anther week in July. The seasonal adjustment that I had them explain when I was in Washington briefing Congress does not apply one week and then apply the next week and then not apply the third week and then apply the fourth week. It is all Damned Fed Gov crappola as I pointed out in previous posts.

Look it, I will give you a chance to try to explain the manipulation of the numbers. Just go to July and explain the manipulation for the three weeks in the middle of the month. You claim to be an economist. I know you as only a pathological liar. But go ahead and try to explain that outrageous manipulation of the numbers.

The Damned Fed Gov has said that UI claims have gone down for weeks now. Yet, the actual numbers show that UI claims have gone up and up and up for weeks now. Why all the insane lies from the Fed Gov? Why all the insane lies from you to try to defend them?

I have tried to poke fun at your insane dishonesty, but THUD, your constant barrage of lies takes the fun out of the board. It is one thing to take an insane position like you have. It is another thing to be criminally insane in trying to defend that position.

 

[Mike Mitrosky]

And your evidence is?????

Evidence is all around us.. Theyre constantly changing the components of indices to make things like unemployment look better, inflation look better, debt and deficits look better than they really are.. Geesh.. The true numbers for these things are way worse than whats being reported because every couple of years they lower the bar..

Perhaps you're not aware of what "evidence" is. More assertions does not constitute evidence. First unemployment is not an index, and it's defintion has had one minor change since 1967. Not really constantly. Price indexes haven't been changed often either. Besides, you would have to show that the previous methodology was better and that the only reason for change was to guarantee "better" numbers. The CPI was overstated in some parts and understated in others. Pricing computers threw the numbers off.

Lets look at one now.. the GDP. The GDP... Whatever happened to the GNP?

When I was younger everything was always GNP, Gross National Product.. Then one day years ago I noticed everything had changed to GDP, Gross Domestic Product.

What do you think the difference is? What does GDP show (or hide) that GNP would reveal?

The difference is that GNP measures all output by US companies in or outside the US and excludes foreign companies within the US. That's not really a good measure of US output. GDP measures everything within the US, and excludes everything outside, regardless of ownership. Flows from foreign companies to outside the US can be accounted for, but the GDP shows a better picture of what's going on within the US.

Do you really believe that? I know that is the explanation that is spoon fed to everybody but I think its much more important to know what American owned companies are doing as opposed to foreign.

The GDP numbers hide when foreigners buy up our assets.. Or when American assets overseas have to be sold off. Government spending also happens to be included in GDP but payment on debt isnt included.

I dont think there is anything accurate about GDP at all. It just sounds like some globalist nonsense to get people to think gNp doesnt matter.

 

[pinqy]

Why do you resort to so many insults? You never even try to actually adress the science or math of my posts. You keep claiming lie, but have never shown one. And accusing ME of name calling? Do want to do a count of insults and name calling? Really?

You are the most blatant pathological liar I have ever run across. Lie after lie after lie after lie. The Federal numbers are damned lies and you are a damned liar. That is all there is to it. I have shown you over and over and over again. The numbers do not jive with reality. And still you lie and lie and lie about it.

Basically your argument is, and has been "I personally don't think the numbers match my observations, therefore they must be lies and anyone who says differently is a liar." You have NOT showed a single gaddamned piece of evidence besides what you think you observe in "reality." Show me the fucking math! Show something that even resembles a coherent theory.

The "actual numbers" are the numbers as reported up to date of the release on the DOL site. You know that.

Oh, you read my mind now? To me, actual numbers are the actual numbers, and preliminary numbers are preliminary numbers. Is it really that hard for you to understand?

The False numbers or bogus numbers as I have identified them are numbers that are made up out of thin air. If the Fed Gov wants to increase them, they do. If the Fed Gov wants to decrease them, they do. It has absolutely nothing to do with seasonal adjustment.

Ok, provide your evidence...oh, here it is:

If it did, why then did the Damned Fed Gov add to one week in July and subtract from anther week in July.

I have no idea. I'd have to see the model. See that's how science works. We look at actual evidence, not just make assumpions and assertions without looking at what's happening.

The seasonal adjustment that I had them explain when I was in Washington briefing Congress does not apply one week and then apply the next week and then not apply the third week and then apply the fourth week. It is all Damned Fed Gov crappola as I pointed out in previous posts.

No, it applies every week, but it applies differently in every week because the weeks can show different trends. Again, how on earth can you say the model is incaccurate without actually looking at the model.



Now, your turn to explain your lies.
You wrote:

And again you lie you royal ass. The point is that the overall level and yearly change IS WORSE. YET, the Federal Report says that everything is getting better. They are damned lying sacks of shit, just like you are.

So let's look together at the press release For the week ending Oct 3, the seasonally adjusted number of Initial claims was 521,000 and the overall level of claims was 6,040,000. The previous year, the number of initial claims was 478,000, a yearly change of +43,000 (521,000-478,000) and the level was 3,702,000 for a yearly change of +2,338
The unadjusted numbers for week ending Oct 3 give Initial claims at 449,375 (which is a LOWER number than the adjusted) and the level was 4,994,971 (which is again LOWER than the adjusted). The yearly change for initial claims was 449,375 - 426,789 = 22,586. So SA gives an increase of 43,00 and NSA gives an increase of 22,586. How is a lower increase in initial claims worse? The yearly change for overall level was 4,994,791 - 3,057,698 = 1,937,273. Again, the SA numbers show a LARGER increase in Unemployment claims than the unadjusted. WHY would the government lie to make things appear worse than they really are? Yes, the situation is worse than last year, but the seasonal adjustment makes it appear worse than your "actual" numbers say. Why would they do that?

 

[Mike Mitrosky]

I don't know too many people who don't dispute official government numbers on things. I think by now its common knowledge.

When inflation started getting too high they took the 8oz of steak out of the CPI and replaced it with 8oz of hamburger meat. That way prices don't look as bad. Government numbers are mostly bullshit. Some of the real ones that come out of GAO from David Walker like us having unfunded liabilities of $55-$70 TRILLION just get glossed over and not discussed. Bad news is bad for politics.. Ya gotta always have not just good but GREAT! news...

ECONOMY IS DOING GREAT NOW, didnt you hear? The Great Recession is finally over. But meanwhile theyre trying to figure out a way to spin a "jobless" recovery.

HUH?

See what I mean?

 

[pinqy]

Do you really believe that? I know that is the explanation that is spoon fed to everybody but I think its much more important to know what American owned companies are doing as opposed to foreign.

That's a matter of differing opinion. You seem to be in the minority as most countries now use GDP. Personally I think it is more valuable to see what's happening within a country and to look at net expotrs (which GNP does not do)

The GDP numbers hide when foreigners buy up our assets.. Or when American assets overseas have to be sold off.

Who cares when? The important part is how much...that's in the flow of funds accounts and in the NIPA.

Government spending also happens to be included in GDP but payment on debt isnt included.

No, it's in the NIPA.

I dont think there is anything accurate about GDP at all. It just sounds like some globalist nonsense to get people to think gNp doesnt matter.

There's a huge difference between saying you disagree with some of the concepts and/or components to saying everything is inaccurate. That's a lot to support. Why would it be bad to say GNP doesn't matter? You're saying GDP doesn't matter. All you're doing is saying that a different opinion than yours is nonsense.

 

[pinqy]

When inflation started getting too high they took the 8oz of steak out of the CPI and replaced it with 8oz of hamburger meat.

No, they didn't. That's a myth you bought into. I would love to see your evidence though...it should be funny. Even Jon Williams at Shadowstats has retracted that particular claim.

 

[Toro]

When inflation started getting too high they took the 8oz of steak out of the CPI and replaced it with 8oz of hamburger meat. That way prices don't look as bad. Government numbers are mostly bullshit.

Here are answers to your argument. Feel free to rebut them.

http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2008/08/art1full.pdf
Econbrowser: Shadowstats debunked
True or False: U.S. Economic Stats Lie at SmartMoney.com