And still more government lies!

[pinqy]

When inflation started getting too high they took the 8oz of steak out of the CPI and replaced it with 8oz of hamburger meat. That way prices don't look as bad. Government numbers are mostly bullshit.

Here are answers to your argument. Feel free to rebut them.

http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2008/08/art1full.pdf
Econbrowser: Shadowstats debunked
True or False: U.S. Economic Stats Lie at SmartMoney.com

No fair spoiling my fun trying to make him find actual sources for something that doesn't exist.

 

[Mike Mitrosky]

When inflation started getting too high they took the 8oz of steak out of the CPI and replaced it with 8oz of hamburger meat. That way prices don't look as bad. Government numbers are mostly bullshit.

Here are answers to your argument. Feel free to rebut them.

http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2008/08/art1full.pdf
Econbrowser: Shadowstats debunked
True or False: U.S. Economic Stats Lie at SmartMoney.com

Thanks.. Ill definitely look into this.

 

[Neubarth]

SUPER-ANAL-IGNORAMUS-MAXIMUS, there you go again. You refuse to answer the question and try to obfuscate the issue with nonsense. DAMN, you are totally evil!

Go back to my example which clearly shows government manipulation for effect and explain that. You can't because it clearly shows the massive government corruption.

So let's look together at the press release For the week ending Oct 3, the seasonally adjusted number of Initial claims was 521,000 and the overall level of claims was 6,040,000. The previous year, the number of initial claims was 478,000, a yearly change of +43,000 (521,000-478,000) and the level was 3,702,000 for a yearly change of +2,338
The unadjusted numbers for week ending Oct 3 give Initial claims at 449,375 (which is a LOWER number than the adjusted) and the level was 4,994,971 (which is again LOWER than the adjusted). The yearly change for initial claims was 449,375 - 426,789 = 22,586. So SA gives an increase of 43,00 and NSA gives an increase of 22,586. How is a lower increase in initial claims worse? The yearly change for overall level was 4,994,791 - 3,057,698 = 1,937,273. Again, the SA numbers show a LARGER increase in Unemployment claims than the unadjusted. WHY would the government lie to make things appear worse than they really are? Yes, the situation is worse than last year, but the seasonal adjustment makes it appear worse than your "actual" numbers say. Why would they do that?

 

[pinqy]

SUPER-ANAL-IGNORAMUS-MAXIMUS, there you go again. You refuse to answer the question and try to obfuscate the issue with nonsense. DAMN, you are totally evil!

I did answer the question. I said I don't know. How could I know without knowing the model? I have no idea what you mean when you say seasonal adjustment "does not apply one week and then apply the next week and then not apply the third week and then apply the fourth week." Who ever said it does that? It applies every week. Why whould that mean it moves in the same direction each week? I really don't get what you're thinking here...that if SA adjusts downward one week it can't adjust upward the next and down the next after that? Why not? Why is that "clearly manipulation?" Come on...prove your points with facts, not assertions. Why is that not possible through an SA model?

So let's look together at the press release For the week ending Oct 3, the seasonally adjusted number of Initial claims was 521,000 and the overall level of claims was 6,040,000. The previous year, the number of initial claims was 478,000, a yearly change of +43,000 (521,000-478,000) and the level was 3,702,000 for a yearly change of +2,338
The unadjusted numbers for week ending Oct 3 give Initial claims at 449,375 (which is a LOWER number than the adjusted) and the level was 4,994,971 (which is again LOWER than the adjusted). The yearly change for initial claims was 449,375 - 426,789 = 22,586. So SA gives an increase of 43,00 and NSA gives an increase of 22,586. How is a lower increase in initial claims worse? The yearly change for overall level was 4,994,791 - 3,057,698 = 1,937,273. Again, the SA numbers show a LARGER increase in Unemployment claims than the unadjusted. WHY would the government lie to make things appear worse than they really are? Yes, the situation is worse than last year, but the seasonal adjustment makes it appear worse than your "actual" numbers say. Why would they do that?

[/QUOTE]

Thanks for quoting me...now we can deal with your dodge. Why would the government manipulate the numbers to make the change in initial claims almost TWICE as much as it really is? Why would the government lie to make the number of claims WORSE than reality? And if they did either of those, why would YOU claim they're lying to make things appear better?