Thank you for taking the time to respond to my questions and comments. Unfortunately, some of your responses have left me more confused than ever.
You are welcome.
1. How can you insist that people taking the opposite position are idiotic yet seriously contemplate the possibility that they are correct (4). Are you conceding that there is a serious position that your own position is idiotic?
I will not be taking you up on your challenge to prove that something does what it cannot. That which cannot be done is not done.
Because only an idiot would insist that words on a piece of paper actually accomplish anything. That is not an opposite position, it is a fact. What matters is people, not pieces of paper.That is my position, so far no one has even hinted to having a position that could be considered opposite to that. There are a few that are trying to insist that the regulations change things, but they have resorted to insults rather than trying to defend their position.
2. Given that you later dismissed peer-reviewed research with "Researchers conclude all sorts of things", I find it difficult to believe you intend to offer reasoned counterarguments to citations.
Was that research peer reviewed, or just published? I can actually provide government numbers that prove that making DUI laws more strict increases alcohol related traffic fatalities, the link I dismissed was a news report on a study, not the study.
3. I think you are being overly generous in your definition here. One of your arguments seems to be that in the absence of government regulation corporations will self-regulate. However, corporate regulations are of course a form of regulation. Presumably you mean to limit yourself at least to government regulations.
Again, what makes a difference is people. I prefer private sector response because it is usually faster, and is more likely to go beyond what is needed because, believe it or not, most people don't get their kicks from killing others.
4. You seem to be endorsing any standard of proof here, including statistical proof. However, later in your post you seem to dismiss statistical analysis on methodological grounds.
I don't discount cost/benefit analysis, I just prefer not to use them as proof. They make an assumption that x amount of pollution causes y deaths, and that a reduction of the pollution level will result in fewer deaths. This works in math, but in the real world it is not quite that simple.
5. How do you square this standard with your earlier counterargument that even if a particular regulation did save lives other regulations cost them? I will certainly not try to argue that all regulations save lives. I would take the opposite position, that not all regulations save lives.
Because English is not the most flexible language in the world.
The threat behind a government regulation is generally regarded as being beneficial because the result is good. CAFE standards have that same threat behind them, and they result in a number of deaths every year.
6. In this section and later in the thread, you seem open to the notion that regulations save lives. As such (and given the overwhelming support for my side's position, that some regulations save lives) I'm not particularly interested in introducing additional evidence, beyond the studies I already cited, that regulations save lives.
No, I am open to the notion that a well written regulation can serve as a guideline that encourages people to make better decisions.
I may indeed be missing your point. You are after all the ultimate authority on what your point is.
Thanks for the laugh, it is refreshing to debate with someone who doesn't take everything personally.
Murphy's law does not really have any predictive power. For example, it would predict that my computer would crash before I finished typing this sentence (as it could, after all) but... it didn't. Similarly, Murphy's law might predict that any regulation will fail 100% of the time but... they don't.
You don't seem to understand Murphy's Law.
Regarding your response to my examples:
1. Even if it were true that drugs become more available after they are outlawed, it does not follow that the law makes them more available (as you yourself noted, "post hoc, ergo proctor hoc" is a logical fallacy). In any event, this is not true in general. For instance, during Prohibition, when alcohol was an illegal drug, alcohol use decreased dramatically (though of course it did not drop to zero). I'm not endorsing drug criminalization, but I do think it tends to decrease drug use pretty consistently.
The law certainly didn't make people safer, which is, I believe, why you used it as an example.
By the way, just to show that I am not pulling that stat out of thin air, here is a chart showing the price of cocaine according to the UN.
Back to the Drug War: The Street Price of Cocaine
2. As far as I know long-term trends in cigarette use are pretty easy to examine statistically. See, eg,
Bulletin on Narcotics - Volume LIII, Nos. 1 and 2, 2001 - Page 0
They are, but the trend itself tends to go up and down in the short term, and remain fairly steady in the long term, even though taxes are steadily going up. Unless some one has cut taxes on cigarettes that I do not know about.
3. I don't intend to suggest that this is easily demonstrated, or to claim that I can demonstrate it independently in a forum post (indeed, I said I couldn't). There are a number of academic and government studies that purport to do exactly that, and I would refer you to them.
There are also a few studies that challenge those findings. My personal belief is that lower speed limits are a good idea, but that is just my opinion.
4. Were studies merely to examine mortality following regulation, we would again find ourselves with the problem of establishing causation from correlation. Good studies go beyond this with statistical and other controls. For example, some studies use animal models to examine (animal) mortality associated with environmental factors in a controlled setting (
http://regulation2point0.org/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2010/04/phpFy.pdf).
Unfortunately, I find it difficult to navigate threads that are as lengthy as this one has become, so I can't promise that I will see any reply you might offer. Thank you.
Like I said, you can make a good case that those regulations are beneficial. Most of the OSHA stuff is a joke on the job though, so they don't actually save lives or prevent injuries, other than when companies take the time to train employees on job safety. This blog says it at least as well as I could.
Safety First or Just in the Top Three? « mikeroweWORKS