I am really fracking tired of explaining the facts of life to everyone who thinks regulations are good and lack of regulation kills people. I hereby issue a challenge.
Give me a single real world example of a regulation that has actually prevents deaths. I know there are a lot of idiots that are going to point at all sorts of things, like requiring seat belts in cars, and say that proves their point, but that is not going to cut it here. You need to prove that, without said regulation, people would die because no one would have...
- Made seat belts in the first place,
- Actually sell them if someone had made them,
- Use them if both 1 and 2 were true.
- That the end result is that no one dies.
Regulations are not designed to protect people from dangerous products, they are designed to limit liability in case someone actually gets hurt. Companies go to court all the time and argue that they are not liable because they met all applicable government regulations, and the government supports them in this. We live in crony capitalist world where the government makes choices about who lives and who dies based on what some number cruncher somewhere claims is for the common good.
A few questions:
1) Will you withdraw your suggestion that people who take you up on your challenge are "idiots"? One can hardly claim to fairly weigh an argument that one has previously deemed idiotic.
2) What sources of authority will you accept? Peer-reviewed academic studies? Government studies? Foreign studies? One must rely on some external authority, unless you expect one of us forum-dwellers to collect, document and analyze a large set of data ourselves in reply to your challenge.
3) How widely are you defining regulation? Historical regulation? Foreign regulation? Economic regulation? Criminal laws (i.e., drug laws that ban deadly drugs)? Excise taxes on deadly products (i.e., on cigarettes)?
4) What standard of proof do you require? Historical proof seems impossible, since you make a counterfactual requirement ("You need to prove that, without said regulation, people would die..."). Mathematical proof seems impossible due to the inherent lack of mathematical rigor. Experimental proof seems unlikely, since very few if any life-and-death regulations are imposed as part of a controlled experiment. Would you then accept statistical or econometric analysis, or is there another discipline which you deem appropriate?
5) Are you asking for a single regulation that saves lives, or proof that all regulations in total save lives? Your original post asks for the former, but the latter is implied in your post #8. The latter seems impossible to prove, since one cannot review all regulations in the history of the world.
6) What is your response to existing arguments that quantify the number of lives saved by regulations, as in the works cited in
Orden JurÃdico Nacional
or
http://web.iitd.ac.in/~arunku/files/CEL899_2011/Value%20of%20life_Graham.pdf
?
Depending on how you respond to those specifics, I would consider offering the following regulations:
1) Bans on deadly illegal drugs.
2) Taxes and other restrictions on cigarettes
3) Speed limits on public roads
4) Various EPA, OSHA
- Idiots are people that insist government regulations are responsible for saving lives. Regulations do not save lives anymore than laws against murder and theft prevent either of those. Feel free to take up the challenge to prove that rules actually do things they can't if you want.
- I will accept any source you want to cite, I just reserve the right to cite other sources to disprove whatever your source proves.
- Anything you want, rules don't save lives.
- Like I said, site whatever you want. I reserve the right to find counter arguments to anything you cite though.
- If you find one example, and prove that that regulation saves lives, I will admit I am wrong. We will not have any further need for discussion unless you try to argue that all regulations save lives.
- Cost benefit analysis is not proof of lives saved, it is a statistical analysis that examines the cost of a regulation over the projected increase in lives. It is, at best, a statistical nightmare to use those to prove actual saved lies though the numbers do weigh in your favor.
I think you are missing my point though. There is no doubt that some regulations are beneficial, and cost benefit analysis are the best way to measure the potential benefit against the cost. Nonetheless, regulations don't actually save lives because Murphy is still running around fracking with everything.
Now to your examples.
- Illegal drugs are more available, and less expensive, than they were before they were illegal. I think that illegal drugs are actually the best argument against regulation since it is so easy to prove regulations don't actually accomplish anything simply because they exist.
- Cigarette use has declined the last fey years, but long term trends are a bit harder to pin down. The percentage of change is rather small, despite massive increases in taxes. I think it would be hard to prove a correlation, much less causation.
- Automobile fatalities have gone down, but it would harder to attribute that to speed limits than most people realize. Feel free to give it a shot.
- EPA/OSHA regulations are probably your best bet. It is pretty easy to use them to show the difference between the number of deaths before they existed verses the number afterwards.
Nonetheless, I can easily show that, once we understood the actual dangers of industrial pollution, most companies developed their own standards without government regulation. The larger companies then used the drive for government regulation to drive competition out of the business. Rent seeking doesn't benefit the public, it just benefits the companies that receive government support.
Thank you for taking the time to respond to my questions and comments. Unfortunately, some of your responses have left me more confused than ever.
1. How can you insist that people taking the opposite position are idiotic yet seriously contemplate the possibility that they are correct (4). Are you conceding that there is a serious position that your own position is idiotic?
I will not be taking you up on your challenge to prove that something does what it cannot. That which cannot be done is not done.
2. Given that you later dismissed peer-reviewed research with "Researchers conclude all sorts of things", I find it difficult to believe you intend to offer reasoned counterarguments to citations.
3. I think you are being overly generous in your definition here. One of your arguments seems to be that in the absence of government regulation corporations will self-regulate. However, corporate regulations are of course a form of regulation. Presumably you mean to limit yourself at least to government regulations.
4. You seem to be endorsing any standard of proof here, including statistical proof. However, later in your post you seem to dismiss statistical analysis on methodological grounds.
5. How do you square this standard with your earlier counterargument that even if a particular regulation did save lives other regulations cost them? I will certainly not try to argue that all regulations save lives. I would take the opposite position, that not all regulations save lives.
6. In this section and later in the thread, you seem open to the notion that regulations save lives. As such (and given the overwhelming support for my side's position, that some regulations save lives) I'm not particularly interested in introducing additional evidence, beyond the studies I already cited, that regulations save lives.
I may indeed be missing your point. You are after all the ultimate authority on what your point is.
Murphy's law does not really have any predictive power. For example, it would predict that my computer would crash before I finished typing this sentence (as it could, after all) but... it didn't. Similarly, Murphy's law might predict that any regulation will fail 100% of the time but... they don't.
Regarding your response to my examples:
1. Even if it were true that drugs become more available after they are outlawed, it does not follow that the law makes them more available (as you yourself noted, "post hoc, ergo proctor hoc" is a logical fallacy). In any event, this is not true in general. For instance, during Prohibition, when alcohol was an illegal drug, alcohol use decreased dramatically (though of course it did not drop to zero). I'm not endorsing drug criminalization, but I do think it tends to decrease drug use pretty consistently.
2. As far as I know long-term trends in cigarette use are pretty easy to examine statistically. See, eg,
Bulletin on Narcotics - Volume LIII, Nos. 1 and 2, 2001 - Page 0
3. I don't intend to suggest that this is easily demonstrated, or to claim that I can demonstrate it independently in a forum post (indeed, I said I couldn't). There are a number of academic and government studies that purport to do exactly that, and I would refer you to them.
4. Were studies merely to examine mortality following regulation, we would again find ourselves with the problem of establishing causation from correlation. Good studies go beyond this with statistical and other controls. For example, some studies use animal models to examine (animal) mortality associated with environmental factors in a controlled setting (
http://regulation2point0.org/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2010/04/phpFy.pdf).
Unfortunately, I find it difficult to navigate threads that are as lengthy as this one has become, so I can't promise that I will see any reply you might offer. Thank you.