....an informed perspective on the U.S. economy - Chrmn Powell...

[Chillicothe]

Last night's CBS 60-Minutes program offered an interview with Chairman Powell of the Federal Reserve. It was a recent interview....done on Friday, February 2nd.

It is informative, understandable, credible. Powell is measured and careful.....but very insightful.

My avatar offers it here to add context to the frequent complaints voiced on this venue that the American economy is in free-fall, is terrible, is the worst in decades, yadda, yadda, yadda.

Powell offers to all Americans a brief synopsis of what the Federal Reserves thinks it sees in our current economy.

From my own perspective and current experience.......Powell's observations seemed to ring true.
It's just a short segment of their hour long show.....but it is meaty.

60 Minutes Chairman Powell; A Hole in the System; The Mismatch - Yahoo Video Search Results

The search engine that helps you find exactly what you're looking for. Find the most relevant information, video, images, and answers from all across the Web.

video.search.yahoo.com

 

[Oddball]

Everything's cool....We'll just print up some more money.

 

[Dekster]

Last night's CBS 60-Minutes program offered an interview with Chairman Powell of the Federal Reserve. It was a recent interview....done on Friday, February 2nd.

It is informative, understandable, credible. Powell is measured and careful.....but very insightful.

My avatar offers it here to add context to the frequent complaints voiced on this venue that the American economy is in free-fall, is terrible, is the worst in decades, yadda, yadda, yadda.

Powell offers to all Americans a brief synopsis of what the Federal Reserves thinks it sees in our current economy.

From my own perspective and current experience.......Powell's observations seemed to ring true.
It's just a short segment of their hour long show.....but it is meaty.

60 Minutes Chairman Powell; A Hole in the System; The Mismatch - Yahoo Video Search Results

The search engine that helps you find exactly what you're looking for. Find the most relevant information, video, images, and answers from all across the Web.

video.search.yahoo.com

His informed perspective is what I have been telling you people for two years--prices on the shelves are not coming back down. The question is how has inflation abated 4 percent without lower prices?

 

[elektra]

Hamburger, 6.99 lb in Cleveland Tennessee
Butter, 4.99 lb
Potatoes, 8.00 for 10 lbs

all extremely expensive

a chocolate shake at Sonic, is now a luxury, $7 dollars.

 

[Auld Phart]

Last night's CBS 60-Minutes program offered an interview with Chairman Powell of the Federal Reserve. It was a recent interview....done on Friday, February 2nd.

It is informative, understandable, credible. Powell is measured and careful.....but very insightful.

My avatar offers it here to add context to the frequent complaints voiced on this venue that the American economy is in free-fall, is terrible, is the worst in decades, yadda, yadda, yadda.

Powell offers to all Americans a brief synopsis of what the Federal Reserves thinks it sees in our current economy.

From my own perspective and current experience.......Powell's observations seemed to ring true.
It's just a short segment of their hour long show.....but it is meaty.

60 Minutes Chairman Powell; A Hole in the System; The Mismatch - Yahoo Video Search Results

The search engine that helps you find exactly what you're looking for. Find the most relevant information, video, images, and answers from all across the Web.

video.search.yahoo.com

Need to subscribe to see it.

not interested.

 

[Oddball]

Need to subscribe to see it.

not interested.

Your first clue that you really don't need to lend it any credulity: "60 Minutes".

 

[Marener]

Everything's cool....We'll just print up some more money.

In the last 18 months, we've actually contracted the money supply for the first time in a very long time.

 

[Dekster]

In the last 18 months, we've actually contracted the money supply for the first time in a very long time.

High interest does that. The magic question is how is the economy not going to experience a hard-landing?

 

[Marener]

High interest does that. The magic question is how is the economy not going to experience a hard-landing?

It pretty much already avoided the hard landing that everyone was predicting the last 2 years.

Inflation is way down. Unemployment didn’t go up.

Sure, we don’t like high interest rates but it’s far better than a recession.

 

[1srelluc]

I guess that's why the market is down 164 so far today.

 

[Dekster]

It pretty much already avoided the hard landing that everyone was predicting the last 2 years.

Inflation is way down. Unemployment didn’t go up.

Sure, we don’t like high interest rates but it’s far better than a recession.

That is yours and a lot of assumptions but I wouldn't bet the farm on it. Inflation is only "way down" in the sense it is not as way up as it was in the last two years. One or two month does not mean the hard landing has been avoided. It takes like 18 months to two years for that to manifest. The fed is keeping interest inflated so it can unload its balance sheet (part of why you are seeing a contracting money supply) while buying extra quarters they can cut in when things turn south. They very much are preparing for a hard/bumpy landing. They are priming their system for more quantitative easing when it happens.

 

[Marener]

That is yours and a lot of assumptions but I wouldn't bet the farm on it. Inflation is only "way down" in the sense it is not as way up as it was in the last two years. One or two month does not mean the hard landing has been avoided. It takes like 18 months to two years for that to manifest. The fed is keeping interest inflated so it can unload its balance sheet (part of why you are seeing a contracting money supply) while buying extra quarters they can cut in when things turn south. They very much are preparing for a hard/bumpy landing. They are priming their system for more quantitative easing when it happens.

It’s below 3.5% and so yes that certainly is way down. Those are year over year figures so it already manifested over the last year.

Not sure why you think it takes 18 months to 2 years other than maybe you are still hoping for a recession.

And yes, they should be priming for more quantitative easing in the future because there will be another recession and we will want to have the ability to use monetary policy to fight it. That is precisely what they should be doing.

 

[Burgermeister]

The same people who believe him also believe the FDA Commissioner, Director of the CDC, The Director of NIAID, and for that matter they also believe the 50 lying sacks who signed that ridiculous letter claiming the Hunter laptop story was Russian disinformation.

 

[Hellokitty]

His informed perspective is what I have been telling you people for two years--prices on the shelves are not coming back down. The question is how has inflation abated 4 percent without lower prices?

They said the same when prices went up during the Obama administration, and yet with TRUMP in office prices came down.

 

[Dekster]

It’s below 3.5% and so yes that certainly is way down. Those are year over year figures so it already manifested over the last year.

Not sure why you think it takes 18 months to 2 years other than maybe you are still hoping for a recession.

And yes, they should be priming for more quantitative easing in the future because there will be another recession and we will want to have the ability to use monetary policy to fight it. That is precisely what they should be doing.

And I don't know why you think a couple months of no depression equals a soft-landing, but time will tell. Right now, it looks like Powell is Bernanke II, Electric Bugaloo. He is ignoring the commercial property down turn, he is underplaying the risk to the system by pretending that regional bank exposure to the commercial mortgage market is no big thing, and he is ignoring what is going on elsewhere in the global economy. Either that, or he knows that there will be no soft-landing. It is one or the other, but neither indicate it is going to be all sunshine and rainbows for the foreseeable future.

 

[Dekster]

They said the same when prices went up during the Obama administration, and yet with TRUMP in office prices came down.

Trump's inflation rate was higher than Obama's

 

[White 6]

Last night's CBS 60-Minutes program offered an interview with Chairman Powell of the Federal Reserve. It was a recent interview....done on Friday, February 2nd.

It is informative, understandable, credible. Powell is measured and careful.....but very insightful.

My avatar offers it here to add context to the frequent complaints voiced on this venue that the American economy is in free-fall, is terrible, is the worst in decades, yadda, yadda, yadda.

Powell offers to all Americans a brief synopsis of what the Federal Reserves thinks it sees in our current economy.

From my own perspective and current experience.......Powell's observations seemed to ring true.
It's just a short segment of their hour long show.....but it is meaty.

60 Minutes Chairman Powell; A Hole in the System; The Mismatch - Yahoo Video Search Results

The search engine that helps you find exactly what you're looking for. Find the most relevant information, video, images, and answers from all across the Web.

video.search.yahoo.com

Excellent interview with Powell. Thanks for bringing it.

 

[Marener]

And I don't know why you think a couple months of no depression equals a soft-landing, but time will tell. Right now, it looks like Powell is Bernanke II, Electric Bugaloo. He is ignoring the commercial property down turn, he is underplaying the risk to the system by pretending that regional bank exposure to the commercial mortgage market is no big thing, and he is ignoring what is going on elsewhere in the global economy. Either that, or he knows that there will be no soft-landing. It is one or the other, but neither indicate it is going to be all sunshine and rainbows for the foreseeable future.

The fed started increasing interest rates 2 years ago.

Inflation has been near goal for a year.

It seems highly likely that the dire consequences of all this would have been noticeable by now.

 

[Dekster]

The fed started increasing interest rates 2 years ago.

Inflation has been near goal for a year.

It seems highly likely that the dire consequences of all this would have been noticeable by now.

The fed hasn't really reached its pivot point yet and only then will the "landing" happen. Hard landings and soft landings look exactly the same up to a point. When they start slashing rates, keep an eye on building permits. There will be slight jump up either way, and then what happens after that will be a fairly reliable indicator of what is coming. They were softening in the last quarter, but improved slightly in January so the fed is getting closer to its PP.

 

[Marener]

The fed hasn't really reached its pivot point yet and only then will the "landing" happen. Hard landings and soft landings look exactly the same up to a point. When they start slashing rates, keep an eye on building permits. There will be slight jump up either way, and then what happens after that will be a fairly reliable indicator of what is coming. They were softening in the last quarter, but improved slightly in January so the fed is getting closer to its PP.

Well, interest rates don't seem like they’re going any higher, so the fact that the economy is doing fine now when the interest rates are high seems to imply it’s all upside as interest rates come down.