JoeB131
Diamond Member
So much for Trump's landslide victory.
exactly.
So let's look at where Real Clear Politics and 538 has them this morning.
PA +4.3 (RCP), + 4.9 (538) Biden
WI + 6.4 (RCP), + 8.7 (538) Biden
MI + 7.3 (RCP), + 8.7 (538) Biden
Biden wins these, it's over. Done.
Then you get into the Teir 2 States. Biden doesn't have to win these, but they'd help a lot.
FL +1.4 (RCP), +1.9 (538) Biden
NC + 2.1 (RCP), +2.6 (538) Biden
AZ +1 (RCP), +3.4 (538) Biden
Then you have the tier 3 states... These are ones that might go for Biden assuming the Youth/Minority vote is undercounted. They are close... way too close.
GA +0.8 (RCP) +1.6 (538) Biden
OH TIE (RCP), + 0.7 (538) Trump
IA +.06 (RCP), + 1.8 (538) Trump .
TX + 2.3 (RCP) + 1.0 (538) Trump.
Now, Trump has to win ALL of these. He could maybe lose one or two, but no more than that.
In 2016, the pollsters were wrong about MI, WI and PA going to Trump, but they were also wrong about Nevada going to Hillary.
Personally, I think the polls are overcounting Trump support, because they got it slightly wrong in 2016... I think it's going to be a complete blowout for Biden.