About to crash

[Harpy Eagle]

Day 127, still no crash.

Maybe the OP has a different view of what "about to" means than the rest of us

 

[sparky]

not polite to answer a question with a question.

fair enough

methinks i've been in the workforce now for 3-4 'crashes' GG

they're all basically the same in the sense that the louder the government advocates a stable economy , the more it is not

wall street follows suit in their bull market.......emphasis on the bull

nobody can translate Fed doublespeak

and then all these ninnies end up before Congress w/hat in hand blaming each other ....

~S~

 

[Harpy Eagle]

they're all basically the same in the sense that the louder the government advocates a stable economy , the more it is not

wall street follows suit in their bull market.......emphasis on the bull

nobody can translate Fed doublespeak

and then all these ninnies end up before Congress w/hat in hand blaming each other ....

could not have said it better myself

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

Frankly, I am convinced the OP was motivated more by partisan hopes than real understanding. He was mistaken about the stock market, the banks and the effect of Fed action in raising short-term rates (and initiating a mild QT policy by allowing assets — mostly government securities — it bought on the open market during QE to roll off its books. Fed policies for various reasons, it can be argued, are still not tight enough. Of course the financial markets are every day agitating for a reversal of Fed policy, despite the fact that “service” related inflation is not yet under control, and of course the stock market is roaring, especially in new digital and AI-related fields.

“Black Swan” events are still possible, especially given global instability and the possibility of domestic chaos due to elections next year. Hell they are always possible, and economic prognostication is now especially hard — even for honest experts — to make.

Nevertheless, big logistic problems have been resolved, many manufactured commodities — especially imported ones — have stabilized in price or even resumed their long-term gradual decline, and of course oil and gasoline on world markets have fallen despite Saudi and OPEC cutbacks. Energy is properly not part of “core” inflation because its price changes quickly and is subject to political upheavals globally. But U.S. production capacity (as well I would add as increasing efficiency and new alternative sources coming on line) has buffered the U.S. from deep lasting energy problems in a way not possible in the bad old days.

As one of my favorite economists puts it in commenting on the effect of all the new American energy production available:

[It’s] just the oil biz. Domestic oil production is spread across innumerable small and large drillers. Frackers can ramp up production very quickly. So when prices spiked in 2021 and 2022, they hedged part of their production at high prices and then it was drill baby drill to get those higher prices. And then they overproduce… this is the same thing over and over again, which is why, in commodities, the best cure for a high price is a high price because it stimulates overproduction, which causes the price to crash. Oldest song in the book.

Wolf Richter, Dec 12, 2023

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Frankly, I am convinced the OP was motivated more by partisan hopes than real understanding.

You just described Azog to the T

 

[jwoodie]

Frankly, I am convinced the OP was motivated more by partisan hopes than real understanding.

Frankly, you are a little late to this dance.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

Frankly, you are a little late to this dance.

Frankly, I have already posted nine often long and solidly reasoned comments on this thread. You should read them. You might actually learn something.

But no … I don’t want to dance with you!

***

P.S. I happened to have been an excellent Ballroom and Latin dancer in my younger days.

 

[Crepitus]

Actual rich people, much like smart people, never need to brag how much money they have or how smart they are.

As for cash in hand that I could get in the next 5 minutes, only about $16,000. The rest is tied up making me more money.

I doubt I have that much available cash. Maybe $10 K. The rest, as you've noted, is invested.

 

[Crepitus]

So, no cash in hand. As expected.

What do you do if there is a power failure that lasts a week or so? A hurricane or a tornado comes along (out here it is earthquakes) and you have no access to your bank account for weeks. What are you going to do? Every disaster preparedness plan MUST include a good supply of cash.

Dude, if you actually have $30 grand ish in cash sitting around your home you are a flipping idiot!

I keep a few hundred in my safe, but any more than that is just dumb.

 

[jwoodie]

Frankly, I have already posted 9, often long and solidly reasoned comments on this thread. You should read them. You might actually learn something.

"Frankly" is a pretense of honesty.

 

[Crepitus]

Dow Jones hit an All Time High today.

Not terribly "crashy"

 

[Moonglow]

Day 127, still no crash.

Maybe the OP has a different view of what "about to" means than the rest of us

That's why he no longer posts on USMB.

 

[Moonglow]

Dow Jones hit an All Time High today.

Not terribly "crashy"

Damn it, the MAGATs keep losing their dog whistles.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

That's why he no longer posts on USMB.

was he that embarrassed by this thread

 

[Moonglow]

was he that embarrassed by this thread

That and several other threads and his great attempt at catfishing is over his occupation.

 

[westwall]

Dude, if you actually have $30 grand ish in cash sitting around your home you are a flipping idiot!

I keep a few hundred in my safe, but any more than that is just dumb.

Actually, I am up to around 50k right now. Never know when I might need more. But, it is in a safe, and well protected. But thanks for your concern.

 

[Orangecat]

I keep a few hundred in my safe, but any more than that is just dumb.

You need a safe for a few hundred bucks? Lulz.

 

[westwall]

You need a safe for a few hundred bucks? Lulz.

I always have at least 1000 in my wallet.

 

[Crepitus]

You need a safe for a few hundred bucks? Lulz.

Also has important papers, a few pistols, some rare coins, you know that kinda stuff. It's pretty small. The big one went with the business last spring.

 

[westwall]

Also has important papers, a few pistols, some rare coins, you know that kinda stuff. It's pretty small. The big one went with the business last spring.

Why did you disagree with my post? What is there to disagree with?