5 Point Obama lead in Ohio...Ohio...Ohio

[jillian]

The Ohio poll was +9 D, the PA one looks more solid but who knows - either could still go either way two weeks out.

By 2 points according to RCP. Big deal.

Yeah? He was ahead by 2 points in the polls in Ohio in 2008,

and won by 4.

Not really:

Ohio opinion polls
Poll Source Date administered (2008) Democrat % Republican % Lead Margin Others %
Reuters/Zogby Oct 31 – Nov 3 Barack Obama 49.4% John McCain 47.4% 2
Rasmussen Reports Nov 2 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 49% 0
Strategic Vision Oct 31 – Nov 2 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 48% 2
Public Policy Polling Oct 31 – Nov 2 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 48% 2
Reuters/Zogby Oct 30 – Nov 2 Barack Obama 50.2% John McCain 43.9% 6.3
SurveyUSA Oct 30 – Nov 2 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 46% 2
University of Cinncinati Oct 29 – Nov 2 Barack Obama 51.5% John McCain 45.7% 5.8
Quinnipiac University Oct 27 – Nov 2 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 43% 7
Columbus Dispatch Oct 22–31 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 46% 6
Mason-Dixon Oct 28–29 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 47% 2
CNN/Time Magazine/
Opinion Research Oct 23–28 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 47% 4
SurveyUSA Oct 26–27 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 45% 4

two points is well within most MoE, what's hard to believe is a poll is a poll that has Obama up by a larger margin than he won by four years ago.

Wow... The prodigal son has returned.

How ya doing?

 

[BluePhantom]

Regarding my post immediately below....would anyone care to notice the following trends

Media
Before Debates: O+7.71
After 1st Debate: O+5
After 2nd Debate: O+4

Professional
Before Debates: O+2.22
After 1st Debate: O+1
After 2nd Debate: O+0.5


Anyone notice anything specific?

 

[Liability]

It isn't difficult to notice how many of Liability's posts are personal attacks on posters.

poor tool

It is easy to notice how few of Dainty's posts aren't trite or dishonest in one way or another.

But I agree with its sign off. It is a poor tool. Surprisingly honest or insightful of it.

 

[UnAmericanYOU]

Hey Jillian, tried to pos rep you and I still couldn't. Been working on another textbook and lost focus on politics but hope you and your family are doing well. I remember you, but not your location.

Regarding my post immediately below....would anyone care to notice the following trends

Media
Before Debates: O+7.71
After 1st Debate: O+5
After 2nd Debate: O+4

Professional
Before Debates: O+2.22
After 1st Debate: O+1
After 2nd Debate: O+0.5


Anyone notice anything specific?

that the gap is narrowing in both? I don't like the way rcp averages all these polls, though - different MoEs. various sample sizes, no differentation between reg v. likely, etc. Media polls are always more unreiliable than the other ones and who cares if it's now a trite thing to say that an incumbent under 50 percent is always vulnerable? It's trite because it's true but then the polls have to be an accurate snapshot as well.

 

[BluePhantom]

Hey Jillian, tried to pos rep you and I still couldn't. Been working on another textbook and lost focus on politics but hope you and your family are doing well. I remember you, but not your location.

Regarding my post immediately below....would anyone care to notice the following trends

Media
Before Debates: O+7.71
After 1st Debate: O+5
After 2nd Debate: O+4

Professional
Before Debates: O+2.22
After 1st Debate: O+1
After 2nd Debate: O+0.5


Anyone notice anything specific?

that the gap is narrowing in both? I don't like the way rcp averages all these polls, though - different MoEs. various sample sizes, no differentation between reg v. likely, etc. Media polls are always more unreiliable than the other ones and who cares if it's now a trite thing to say that an incumbent under 50 percent is always vulnerable? It's trite because it's true but then the polls have to be an accurate snapshot as well.

Yeah I agree, but like I said....I was just using basic calculations in order to make a point regarding the difference between media and pro and this CBS/Quin poll in particular

 

[BluePhantom]

what's hard to believe is a poll is a poll that has Obama up by a larger margin than he won by four years ago.

An excellent point, and one I made myself right here a couple weeks ago, however I would disagree on one minor point. A poll represent's a snapshot of how things are now. Tracking polls like Gallup, Rasmussen, etc are another story, but it's not totally unconceivable for a poll two weeks away from the election to show a bigger Obama lead than his margin of victory in 2008. This is because the undecided voters are just that...undecided. But those undecided voters will break for Romney...historically they always break for the challenger and it's crystal clear that this year is no different. They have been breaking for him like crazy. By election day however it will become completely unreasable to accept any projection that has Obama with a stronger lead than in 2008, barring some absolutely massive October surprise that re-creates the perfect storm Obama enjoyed four years ago.

 

[jillian]

Hey Jillian, tried to pos rep you and I still couldn't. Been working on another textbook and lost focus on politics but hope you and your family are doing well. I remember you, but not your location.

Regarding my post immediately below....would anyone care to notice the following trends

Media
Before Debates: O+7.71
After 1st Debate: O+5
After 2nd Debate: O+4

Professional
Before Debates: O+2.22
After 1st Debate: O+1
After 2nd Debate: O+0.5


Anyone notice anything specific?

that the gap is narrowing in both? I don't like the way rcp averages all these polls, though - different MoEs. various sample sizes, no differentation between reg v. likely, etc. Media polls are always more unreiliable than the other ones and who cares if it's now a trite thing to say that an incumbent under 50 percent is always vulnerable? It's trite because it's true but then the polls have to be an accurate snapshot as well.

I hope your writing is going well. And that you and yours are thriving. Glad to see you. We're doing we'll. Busy!

The location is NYC. I think we have a 100% chance of going blue.

 

[NYcarbineer]

It isn't difficult to notice how many of Liability's posts are personal attacks on posters.

poor tool

He's never been the same since he lost his shirt betting on Fred Thompson in '08.

 

[Sarah G]

It isn't difficult to notice how many of Liability's posts are personal attacks on posters.

poor tool

He's never been the same since he lost his shirt betting on Fred Thompson in '08.

HaHaa.. Everybody remembers that. That was earlier than 2008, it was when we were at that other place.

 

[elvis]

no one has a crystal ball.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Let's do some real basic calculations here and compare media and media affiliated to the professionals.

Ohio polls prior to first debate (in september)

Media Polls
Organization........Obama....Romney....Spread
NBC/WSJ/Marist......51.........43.............O+8
Columbus Dispatch..51.........42.............O+9
Washington Post.....52.........44.............O+8
CBS/Quinnapiac......53.........43.............O+10
FoxNews................49.........42.............O+7
Ohio Newspapers....51.........46.............O+5
NBC/WSJ/Marist......50.........43............O+7

Average.................51.........43.28........O+7.72

Professional
Organization........Obama....Romney....Spread
PPP(D)..................49...........45............O+4
Gravis...................45...........44............O+1
Purple Strategies...48...........44............O+4
McLaughlin(R).......47............44...........O+3
Rasmussen...........47............46...........O+1
ARG.....................48............47...........O+1
PPP(D).................50............45...........O+5
Gravis..................47............43...........O+4
Gravis..................44............47...........R+3

Average...............47.22.......45............O+2.22

Wow.....a 5.5% difference in Obama's favor by the media polls. Well what about between the first and second debates? Let's have a look.

Media Polls
Organization........Obama....Romney....Spread
NBC/WSJ/Marist.......51.........45.............O+6
CNN/OR...................51.........47.............O+4

Average...................51.........46.............O+5


Professional
Organization........Obama....Romney....Spread
SUSA.....................45...........42.............O+3
PPP(D)...................51...........46.............O+5
Rasmussen.............48...........47.............O+1
Gravis.....................45..........46.............R+1
ARG.......................47...........48.............R+1
SUSA.....................45...........44.............O+1
WAA......................46...........47.............R+1
Rasmussen.............50...........49.............O+1

Average..............47.125....46.125...........O+1

Well holy shit.....a four point difference in Obama's favor. Well let's look at since the second debate

Media Polls
Organization........Obama....Romney....Spread
CBS/Quinnapiac......50...........45............O+5
FoxNews................46...........43............O+3

Average.................48............44...........O+4

Professional Polls
Organization........Obama....Romney....Spread
Suffolk...................47...........47..............Tie
PPP(D)...................49...........48..............O+1
Gravis....................47...........47..............Tie
Rasmussen............49............48..............O+1

Average.................48..........47.5............O+0.5

Well son of a *****....a 3.5% difference in Obama's favor

Now....does anyone want to make the argument that media polls are not biased in Obama's favor? Really?!?!

Now let's look at the CBS/Quinnapiac speficically. Well shit, in every single section they show the highest Obama advantage even over the other media polls that are already showing an Obama bias....and that's why we can safely look at this particular poll and toss it over our shoulder.

Quinnipiac is a university, not a media outlet.

Marist is a college, not a media outlet.

Foxnews polls are conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). Those are professional pollsters.

Your attempts at distinctions are crap.

 

[JimH52]

no one has a crystal ball.

True, that is why we are relying on science and math at fivethirtyeight.com

But shiny orbs do seem to fascinate some here.

 

[NYcarbineer]

It isn't difficult to notice how many of Liability's posts are personal attacks on posters.

poor tool

He's never been the same since he lost his shirt betting on Fred Thompson in '08.

HaHaa.. Everybody remembers that. That was earlier than 2008, it was when we were at that other place.

No, it was 2008. Fred started out with a little bit of potential, but eventually fell asleep one day in a park in Iowa, and when he awoke,

the note with his name, address, and who to call that was pinned to his jacket had fallen off, no one, including Fred, knew what to do with him,

and he was adrift in limbo for several years until the reverse mortgage people found him and nursed him back to usable condition.

 

[Sarah G]

no one has a crystal ball.

Dems have a Chrystal Ball.

Second from the right.

 

[Zander]

no one has a crystal ball.

True, that is why we are relying on science and math at fivethirtyeight.com

But shiny orbs do seem to fascinate some here.

C'mon Jim......at least be honest! You only like 538 because it shows Obama winning.......

 

[Sarah G]

He's never been the same since he lost his shirt betting on Fred Thompson in '08.

HaHaa.. Everybody remembers that. That was earlier than 2008, it was when we were at that other place.

No, it was 2008. Fred started out with a little bit of potential, but eventually fell asleep one day in a park in Iowa, and when he awoke,

the note with his name, address, and who to call that was pinned to his jacket had fallen off, no one, including Fred, knew what to do with him,

and he was adrift in limbo for several years until the reverse mortgage people found him and nursed him back to usable condition.

After that, he made his TV Drama comeback on The Good Wife.

 

[paperview]

He's never been the same since he lost his shirt betting on Fred Thompson in '08.

HaHaa.. Everybody remembers that. That was earlier than 2008, it was when we were at that other place.

No, it was 2008. Fred started out with a little bit of potential, but eventually fell asleep one day in a park in Iowa, and when he awoke,

the note with his name, address, and who to call that was pinned to his jacket had fallen off, no one, including Fred, knew what to do with him,

and he was adrift in limbo for several years until the reverse mortgage people found him and nursed him back to usable condition.

 

[JimH52]

what I love is that libtards like the OP used to whine that a single poll was not a good indicator of reality, and that an average of multiple polls like RCP was a better indicator...

until of course the RCP average started going Romney's way, now the single polls showing Obama ahead are suddenly a better indicator.

Dumb ass libtards.

Yeah pretty much. Ignore the average, ignore the trends, ignore the rest of the polls that show something totally different...just pay attention to this poll right here that shows O+5 and ignore that it's a media poll. ******* tools.

Obama is still winning Ohio in the average.

Just another poll

ElectoralVote

 

[Trajan]

Dante, how many free minutes did you get with your Obamaphone?

Sorry, but that's funny

 

[Conservative]

Obama is still winning Ohio in the average.

By 2 points according to RCP. Big deal.

And the RCP AVERAGE incorporates the errors implicit in the polling. So if one poll uses registered voters while another uses likely voters, the inaccuracy of the former still gets averaged in to the latter.

And if SOME polls still persist in going with respondents weighted with a Democrat voter overload (unintentionally or intentionally doesn't matter) then the skewing of those polls' results will ALSO be "incorporated into the "average" outcome.

Ohio and PA and Florida and VA are going to go with Romney.

Watch.

Ohio, quite possibly.
Florida, I think that's a lock at this point.
PA... as much as I'd like to see that, since I live in PA, I am not sure Romney will take PA. RCp has Obama by 4.8 right now, and I don't think that is a number that can be overcome here in PA.