2025 Deficit comes in at 1.97 Trillion. This Is Way Out of Hand

[dudmuck]

Dumbass. You just proved my point. Your graph shows that the BBB adds $2.4T to the national debt over 10-years, or an average $240b a year. Matching the revised CBO scoring.
Biden's 2025 budget added $1.8T to the national debt in only 1-year.
So the BBB cut $1.5T OFF BIDEN'S LAST ANNUAL DEFICIT. A MAJOR STEP TOWARD A BALANCED BUDGET.

 

[leftwinger]

This is the link to the revised CBO scoring for the BBB. Read it until you understand it.
HINT: The "primary deficit" is the $38T national debt.

H.R. 1, One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Dynamic Estimate)

As passed by the House of Representatives on May 22, 2025

www.cbo.gov

The BBB is a standalone 2026 budget you moron, it is not additive to Biden's last 2025 budget.

If "Primary Defecit is $38T" then over ten years going to BBB only adds $2.4T? $240B per year.

They claim it would increase interest rates? That alone would cause an increase in spending?

$2.8T is old number. This was revised to $2.4T after later work.

Still confused? Does it add only $2.4T or an additional $2.4T if everything stays the same?
But we know it won't. Interest rates and Tariff revenue are a moving target. Going good so far.

 

[AntonToo]

Still confused? Does it add only $2.4T or an additional $2.4T if everything stays the same?

According to the outdated scoring by CBO, BBB adds additional 2.4T trillion on top of whatever else is going on with the budget (aka budget baseline)

But we know it won't. Interest rates and Tariff revenue are a moving target. Going good so far.

All of projected 10 year interest on BBB is 400B, so even if it's zero (and you know it won't be) there is still 2T more deficits.

Tariffs - that's the taxation you want to make up that 2T deficit with?

Ok let say you do that....only to be in the same budget hole you started out with since you haven't even started actually reducing deficits....only worse since tariff taxes primarily hurts low and middle income earners.

 

[kyzr]

You still don't get it, BBB deficit is in addition to the underlying budget.
2026 budget deficit without BBB was projected to be 1.7T, with additional BBB deficit it is projected to be 2.2T.
You saying that 2026 budget deficit will be 240 billion is just a stupid, divorced from reality nonsense.
Can someone else explain this to him? He is too emotionally invested in not understanding even most simple facts, so long as I'm the one explaining it to him.

from CBO link:
"The Congressional Budget Office and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) previously reported that H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, as passed by the House of Representatives on May 22, would increase the primary deficit by $2.4 trillion over the 2025-2034 period."

The primary deficit is the national debt. Ask AI how much the BBB will increase the national debt...dumbass.

 

[AntonToo]

from CBO link:
"The Congressional Budget Office and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) previously reported that H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, as passed by the House of Representatives on May 22, would increase the primary deficit by $2.4 trillion over the 2025-2034 period."

The primary deficit is the national debt. Ask AI how much the BBB will increase the national debt...dumbass.

View attachment 1175598

Do understand that there is ALSO other deficits happening aside from BBB being scored....right?

2.8T is JUST the BBB policy effect considered, nothing else.

We don't suddenly stop paying for defense or Medicaid just because BBB also exists. You have to add all that up together to get total budget deficit (aka debt).

You can't seem to fit that into your head.

 

[leftwinger]

Tariffs - that's the taxation you want to make up that 2T deficit with?

Sure? Why not. It should spur some growth in USA MFG which grows the GDP. WIN-WIN.
Better than me paying it out of my income stream. I can pick and choose what I buy?
If it is too costly foreign goods....uh I don't need it. Lower the price.

 

[AntonToo]

Sure? Why not. It should spur some growth in USA MFG which grows the GDP. WIN-WIN.
Better than me paying it out of my income stream. I can pick and choose what I buy?
If it is too costly foreign goods....uh I don't need it. Lower the price.

Ok let say you do that....only to be in the same budget hole you started out with since you haven't even started actually reducing deficits....only worse since tariff taxes primarily hurt low and middle income earners.

 

[leftwinger]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^where did your post go under REPLY? you have no official post.

Tarriff revenue is applied on imports. Paid into FED revenue. Yes....get enough of it and it will help.
Taxes stay the same. Sure you may pay more for you Chinese sofa but thats' the breaks.

 

[AntonToo]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^where did your post go under REPLY? you have no official post.

Tarriff revenue is applied on imports. Paid into FED revenue. Yes....get enough of it and it will help.
Taxes stay the same. Sure you may pay more for you Chinese sofa but thats' the breaks.

I'm just reposting what I've already said, since it already answered what you were asking.

Again, what I'm saying is that even if you make up BBB costs with tariff taxes, then you are still just breaking even, not actually doing anything to lower deficits.

 

[kyzr]

Do understand that there is ALSO other deficits happening aside from BBB being scored....right?
2.8T is JUST the BBB policy effect considered, nothing else.
We don't suddenly stop paying for defense or Medicaid just because BBB also exists. You have to add all that up together to get total budget deficit (aka debt).
You can't seem to fit that into your head.

Social Security is self-funded in 2026 and does not affect the budget, neither does Medicare
Welfare and Medicaid are funded thru HHS (google it)
Interest on the Debt about $1.1T is included in the Federal Budget. (google it)
There are no other Federal budget items.

https://www.congress.gov/crs-appropriations-status-table/2026

Agriculture $211b
Commerce $82b
Homeland $99b
Interior $42b
Labor, Ed, HHS $1,700b
Legislative $5b
VA $477b
State $46b
Transportation $100b
TOTAL NON-DEFENSE DISCRETIONARY SPENDING $2,762b

2021 Federal Budget. (I can't find a 2026 version)
Outlays $4.88T
Receipts $3.86T
Deficit $1.02T

Discretionary Spending (2021,2026)
Defense $753b. $852b
Non-defense $733b. $2,762b
Total $1.49T. $3.61T

Mandatory Spending on budget (2021,2026)
Interest on Debt 379b $1,100b
Total $1.1T

 

[HikerGuy83]

His chart showed deficit going forward at $250B to $500B. Now he claims it is added deficit.

I don't understand your comment.

 

[HikerGuy83]

2026 budget deficit without BBB was projected to be 1.7T,

That is a key statement. Can you supply the source for that number.

Watching this going forward, we'll be able to tell what his happening month to month.

Also, what is the basis for the 1/2 trillion increase for next year. I don't like the BBB, but I'd like to know the source of your numbers.

 

[Dragonlady]

Our kids were sold down the river at least 3 decades ago.

Start with cutting military spending by 50% to 2% of GDP. If you’re not going to be the “world’s police force” as you like to put it, you don’t need the biggest baddest army on the planet to defend your country.

You don’t need military bases all over the world, nor do you need 1 million troops stationed world wide.

Nobody asked you to be the world’s police force and defender of democracy. You took on that role yourselves and your nation grew wealthy on that role, just as other world conquerors have done for eons.

 

[Papageorgio]

What is scary is without the tariffs, the debt would have grown more.

 

[HikerGuy83]

What is scary is without the tariffs, the debt would have grown more.

Yes.....why is that?

We are now under Trump's Budget. Watching it closely.

 

[AntonToo]

What is scary is without the tariffs, the debt would have grown more.

Yes imagine that, taxing creates revenues and decreases deficits!

GASP! It's a brave new world.

At the same time Trump's tax-cuts have reduced revenues by about the same ammount in 2025 and in 2026 they are projected to reduce revenues even more.

 

[IM2]

Clinton had surpluses and not one penny went to the debt. In fact, the debt INCREASED in each one of those years with a republican congress. As for Bush, he was worse for the country than any other potus besides Biden and Carter and his daddy wasn't any better. GHWB sold us down the river to China.

U.S. National Debt by Year

The U.S. national debt is the total of what the federal government owes creditors. The U.S. has always carried debt, but the total has expanded rapidly since 2008.

www.investopedia.com

You've got it wrong. Not about the Bushes, but Carter and Biden.

 

[AntonToo]

That is a key statement. Can you supply the source for that number.

Watching this going forward, we'll be able to tell what his happening month to month.

Also, what is the basis for the 1/2 trillion increase for next year. I don't like the BBB, but I'd like to know the source of your numbers.

From CBO Jan-2025 10 year budget outlook (baseline before BBB):

Budget and Economic Data | Congressional Budget Office

CBO regularly publishes data to accompany some of its key reports. These data have been published in the Budget and Economic Outlook and Updates and in their associated supplemental material, except for that from the Long-Term Budget Outlook.

www.cbo.gov

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51118-2025-01-Budget-Projections.xlsx

To that baseline you add CBO's August estimate of BBB impact:

And you get 2.2T deficit estimate for 2026 (minus tariff revenues, plus tariff subsidies)


All of which was already shown here in this graph:

https://www.usmessageboard.com/attachments/1760970657920-webp.1175526/

 

[IM2]

I am all for raising SS withholding on both the employer and the employee side. I have not seen the revised projections on the SS trust fund since the Big Beautiful Bill reportedly will shorten its insolvency by a year. My guess is that eventually they will raid the disability trust fund to fund SS as that thing is projected to be solvent forever and a day.

If I wanted to reduce the federal deficit, I would begin with no more federal funding of highways, raise taxes beginning with treating long term gains as regular income, eliminate the earned income and SALT credits and depreciation deductions, and do away with the National Guard and VA medical centers. Just those things would probably at least put us back into a balanced budget. I mean it is kind of crazy to me that we spend $400B a year on VA medical care when those people could just as readily be treated by their local hospitals and doctors.

Cut defense spending. Use the money elsewhere. Raise the minimum wage t a iving wage. That wud reduce the number of peope using pubic sistance. Improve our transit systems. Rebuild railroad to make them capable of running high speed and light rail. Light rail and bus transit in every city over 25,000. These things woud create millions of good paying jobs which in turn increases tax revenue. If they can do it in Europe and China, we can do it here.

 

[kyzr]

From CBO Jan-2025 10 year budget outlook (baseline before BBB):

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51118-2025-01-Budget-Projections.xlsx

To that baseline you add CBO's August estimate of BBB impact:
And you get 2.2T deficit estimate for 2026 (minus tariff revenues, plus tariff subsidies)
All of which was already shown here in this graph:

So you are taking Biden's 2025 CBO scoring and projections and adding the CBO's 2026 "new" scoring for the BBB and adding them together. That is just plain wrong. Biden's budget projections are separate from the new BBB budget projections.