basquebromance
Diamond Member
- Nov 26, 2015
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- 27,004
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what are your predictions, my friends?
www.politico.com
best excerpts from the article:
One veteran Republican operative, close to many in the GOPās donor class, said in the past couple weeks it's been stunning the extent to which people who have some association with Trump are speculating he might drop out of the race. āHe doesnāt want to be a loser, and thatās all in jeopardy now,ā this strategist said. āItās less than 50-50 [Trump would pull himself off ticket] but Iām amazed at the amount of New Yorkers that are talking about this ā his former friends. ... They think heās looking for an excuse to get out.ā
By these lights, Trumpās complaints about the alleged ā though factually unsupported ā vulnerability of postal voting to fraud could be a predicate for him saying the election is unfair and so heās getting out. Or he could come up with a host of other reasons ā heās achieved his important objectives, he wants time with family, and so on ā for bailing on a showdown.
āHe would throw Mike Pence in a wood chipper if he needed to,ā said one former White House official who frequently interacted with Trump. āIām still very surprised that heās on the ticket. If someone walks in there and tells him, āThe only way youāre going to pull this out is to put an African American on the ticket or to put a woman on the ticketā ā if itās good for Trump, heāll do it in a second.ā
Among the candidates most frequently mentioned for a narrative-jolting event: A Supreme Court vacancy in the fall. āI couldnāt even fathom the chaos a [high court] vacancy could bring to this race,ā said one GOP operative close to the Trump campaign. āMcConnellās going to go forward, the presidentās going to go forward and the left is going to go crazy.ā
No need to get too macabre or dwell on this at length. Itās just a statement of the obvious that if either Trump or Biden were your aging parent in the midst of a pandemic, you would likely urge them to stay home and avoid any unnecessary human contact. You would not urge people creeping close to the average life expectancy for American men (78.5 years) to run for president, even if they were careful about wearing masks (as Biden apparently is and Trump self-evidently is not).
multiple sources do find it plausible if Trump loses he might disparage the results as tainted by fraud or other irregularities. A former White House official who worked closely with Trump said, āThat will be his rationale and for the rest of his life, weāll never hear anything but, āIt was stolen.ā ... He canāt admit that he lost, so how heāll comfort himself or justify it is that it was stolen.ā
One scenario to watch closely if Trump decides to leave the race or loses it: his use of pardon power to insulate allies and family members from any post-presidency legal probes. One point of constitutional ambiguity: Can a president pardon himself?
George Conway, husband of White House counselor Kellyanne Conway and who often publicly lashes Trump, predicted that if Trump loses he will skip the inaugural ceremonies: āI canāt imagine him attending Joe Bidenās inauguration because it would be to him the ultimate humiliation. He would rather blame other people, claim that the election was stolen from him but heās [departing voluntarily] because heās a good guy [but in protest] he will not attend the inauguration."
Trump drops out. Biden gets sick. Pence is fired. What if 2020 gets really crazy?
The most norm-shattering leader in American history is bound to produce some surprises, especially with his reelection in peril.
www.politico.com
best excerpts from the article:
One veteran Republican operative, close to many in the GOPās donor class, said in the past couple weeks it's been stunning the extent to which people who have some association with Trump are speculating he might drop out of the race. āHe doesnāt want to be a loser, and thatās all in jeopardy now,ā this strategist said. āItās less than 50-50 [Trump would pull himself off ticket] but Iām amazed at the amount of New Yorkers that are talking about this ā his former friends. ... They think heās looking for an excuse to get out.ā
By these lights, Trumpās complaints about the alleged ā though factually unsupported ā vulnerability of postal voting to fraud could be a predicate for him saying the election is unfair and so heās getting out. Or he could come up with a host of other reasons ā heās achieved his important objectives, he wants time with family, and so on ā for bailing on a showdown.
āHe would throw Mike Pence in a wood chipper if he needed to,ā said one former White House official who frequently interacted with Trump. āIām still very surprised that heās on the ticket. If someone walks in there and tells him, āThe only way youāre going to pull this out is to put an African American on the ticket or to put a woman on the ticketā ā if itās good for Trump, heāll do it in a second.ā
Among the candidates most frequently mentioned for a narrative-jolting event: A Supreme Court vacancy in the fall. āI couldnāt even fathom the chaos a [high court] vacancy could bring to this race,ā said one GOP operative close to the Trump campaign. āMcConnellās going to go forward, the presidentās going to go forward and the left is going to go crazy.ā
No need to get too macabre or dwell on this at length. Itās just a statement of the obvious that if either Trump or Biden were your aging parent in the midst of a pandemic, you would likely urge them to stay home and avoid any unnecessary human contact. You would not urge people creeping close to the average life expectancy for American men (78.5 years) to run for president, even if they were careful about wearing masks (as Biden apparently is and Trump self-evidently is not).
multiple sources do find it plausible if Trump loses he might disparage the results as tainted by fraud or other irregularities. A former White House official who worked closely with Trump said, āThat will be his rationale and for the rest of his life, weāll never hear anything but, āIt was stolen.ā ... He canāt admit that he lost, so how heāll comfort himself or justify it is that it was stolen.ā
One scenario to watch closely if Trump decides to leave the race or loses it: his use of pardon power to insulate allies and family members from any post-presidency legal probes. One point of constitutional ambiguity: Can a president pardon himself?
George Conway, husband of White House counselor Kellyanne Conway and who often publicly lashes Trump, predicted that if Trump loses he will skip the inaugural ceremonies: āI canāt imagine him attending Joe Bidenās inauguration because it would be to him the ultimate humiliation. He would rather blame other people, claim that the election was stolen from him but heās [departing voluntarily] because heās a good guy [but in protest] he will not attend the inauguration."
