2014 US Senate predictions

[candycorn]

2014 Senate Elections: Polls, Projections, Results - Election Projection



These predictions are based on the polls.



They have the GOP picking up LS, MT, NC, SD and WV (5 seats) for a 50/50 split. I think the GOP is going to also take AK and AR for a 52-48 split. Far cry from the 60 filibustering busting amount, but good enough.

Once they get a majority, the GOP has every right to do away with the filibuster; the Dems foolishly did the same thing for some issues.

They got rid of it for appointees, not legislation.


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Yes, I know which is why I qualified it by saying "for some issues." The importance however is that it sets the precedent.

 

[candycorn]

Here's the underlying problem.

This is the GOP's "Special Olympics" election.

Even if they win, they are still retarded.

Of the 12 states in play, 11 of them are states that Republicans carried in 2012 and 10 of them they carried in 2008. I would honestly hope they could win at least half of them.

The problem I see is that if they do retake the senate, they aren't going to fix the problems that caused them to lose in 2012. - That they've completely alienated women, working folks, minorities and the young.

Nope, they'll take a look at these off-year elections in states they shouldn't really be contesting at this point and think people love them again.

Right on all counts. I will add in that getting the 2nd house of Congress into your column won't magically make the GOP responsible either meaning that I fully expect a monthly bill to repeal Obamacare to land on the President's desk.

 

[candycorn]

Once they get a majority, the GOP has every right to do away with the filibuster; the Dems foolishly did the same thing for some issues.

Since the Ds hold the White House they are the current scapegoat party. Expect a lot of fallout due to the war on air pollution in China, Putin's screw ups in the Ukraine, Brazil's overspending on the world cup and legitimate domestic complaints as well. This could be blowout year for the Rs mostly but not entirely due to politicians in other countries.

At this stage there is absolutely nothing suggesting a blowout year.

What?

Off year elections almost always favor the party not occupying the white house.
The seats the DEMS are defending in the Senate are almost all competitive
Obamacare represents change and it hasn't been accepted yet

If the GOP can't wrest control from the DEMS this year, they should disband.

 

[WelfareQueen]

Here's the underlying problem.

This is the GOP's "Special Olympics" election.

Even if they win, they are still retarded.

Of the 12 states in play, 11 of them are states that Republicans carried in 2012 and 10 of them they carried in 2008. I would honestly hope they could win at least half of them.

The problem I see is that if they do retake the senate, they aren't going to fix the problems that caused them to lose in 2012. - That they've completely alienated women, working folks, minorities and the young.

Nope, they'll take a look at these off-year elections in states they shouldn't really be contesting at this point and think people love them again.

Alienated women, working folks, minorities and the young? Really? Why didn't you include Unicorns and Elves?


Complete bullshit without factual basis....but what the hell, right?

 

[PeoplePower]

Here's the underlying problem.



This is the GOP's "Special Olympics" election.



Even if they win, they are still retarded.



Of the 12 states in play, 11 of them are states that Republicans carried in 2012 and 10 of them they carried in 2008. I would honestly hope they could win at least half of them.



The problem I see is that if they do retake the senate, they aren't going to fix the problems that caused them to lose in 2012. - That they've completely alienated women, working folks, minorities and the young.



Nope, they'll take a look at these off-year elections in states they shouldn't really be contesting at this point and think people love them again.

Alienated women, working folks, minorities and the young? Really? Why didn't you include Unicorns and Elves?





Complete bullshit without factual basis....but what the hell, right?

Look up the GOPs demographics.


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[birddog]

I'm thinking 52-48 in favor of Republicans. It's a different mood in the country that may not be accurately measured in the usual polling ways.

 

[WelfareQueen]

Here's the underlying problem.



This is the GOP's "Special Olympics" election.



Even if they win, they are still retarded.



Of the 12 states in play, 11 of them are states that Republicans carried in 2012 and 10 of them they carried in 2008. I would honestly hope they could win at least half of them.



The problem I see is that if they do retake the senate, they aren't going to fix the problems that caused them to lose in 2012. - That they've completely alienated women, working folks, minorities and the young.



Nope, they'll take a look at these off-year elections in states they shouldn't really be contesting at this point and think people love them again.

Alienated women, working folks, minorities and the young? Really? Why didn't you include Unicorns and Elves?





Complete bullshit without factual basis....but what the hell, right?

Look up the GOPs demographics.


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So you're saying working folks, women, and the young never vote GOP. Wow...thanks for the info.

 

[PeoplePower]

Alienated women, working folks, minorities and the young? Really? Why didn't you include Unicorns and Elves?











Complete bullshit without factual basis....but what the hell, right?

Look up the GOPs demographics.





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So you're saying working folks, women, and the young never vote GOP. Wow...thanks for the info.

I'm saying those are all demographics that Democrats win come election time.


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[Nyvin]

Since the Ds hold the White House they are the current scapegoat party. Expect a lot of fallout due to the war on air pollution in China, Putin's screw ups in the Ukraine, Brazil's overspending on the world cup and legitimate domestic complaints as well. This could be blowout year for the Rs mostly but not entirely due to politicians in other countries.

At this stage there is absolutely nothing suggesting a blowout year.

What?

Off year elections almost always favor the party not occupying the white house.
The seats the DEMS are defending in the Senate are almost all competitive
Obamacare represents change and it hasn't been accepted yet

If the GOP can't wrest control from the DEMS this year, they should disband.

Winning back the senate isn't a blowout year, especially with a map as favorable as 2014. I fully expect 52 GOP seats in the Senate to be the max.

 

[WelfareQueen]

Look up the GOPs demographics.





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So you're saying working folks, women, and the young never vote GOP. Wow...thanks for the info.

I'm saying those are all demographics that Democrats win come election time.


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Nope....Working Folks generally go Republican unless they're union. White females generally go Republican. The young are fairly narrowly split. Blacks are really the only demo blacks that can reliably be said to always go for one party. Not exactly high praise when you look at Detroit, Chicago, Washington and other big cities that suck and happen to be heavily black and heavily Democrat.

 

[PeoplePower]

So you're saying working folks, women, and the young never vote GOP. Wow...thanks for the info.

I'm saying those are all demographics that Democrats win come election time.





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Nope....Working Folks generally go Republican unless they're union. White females generally go Republican. The young are fairly narrowly split. Blacks are really the only demo blacks that can reliably be said to always go for one party. Not exactly high praise when you look at Detroit, Chicago, Washington and other big cities that suck and happen to be heavily black and heavily Democrat.

WHITE working votes, not working votes in general.

Younger voters are reliably democratic, women favor democrats, and democrats also have Latinos, Asian Americans, and Blacks.



http://www.people-press.org/2012/08/23/a-closer-look-at-the-parties-in-2012/

http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/reports/12.pdf

http://billmoyers.com/2012/11/30/why-are-asian-americans-increasingly-voting-for-democrats/

http://www.gallup.com/poll/120839/women-likely-democrats-regardless-age.aspx


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[william the wie]

I would suggest looking at UE claims and Ocare out of pocket expenses. A cross-check would be the declining number of illegals. Year to date returns on REITs such as ZFC and OAKS have bagged up to two decent years of returns in five months. The 10 year treasury is going up in value. That means the economy is in deep trouble, no official recession in sight but "Growth Recessions" are definitely not a fun thing and really bad for the party in power.

 

[JoeB131]

[
Alienated women, working folks, minorities and the young? Really? Why didn't you include Unicorns and Elves?


Complete bullshit without factual basis....but what the hell, right?

YOu mean you don't like the message.

I think when you put adjectives in front of the word "Rape" and call women who want contraception as part of their health coverage "sluts", that alienates women.

I think when you talk about Birth Certificates, securing the border, Willie Horton and Welfare Queens, you alienate minorities.

I think when you support free trade, right to work, at-will employment and other anti-worker policies, you alienate working people.

And, yes, when you cut tuition and student loans, you alienate young people.

So this is the bed the GOP has made. Much like the Democrats of the 1980's, the GOP is too busy trying to reassure an insecure base than reaching out to the voters it needs to win.

 

[JoeB131]

I'm thinking 52-48 in favor of Republicans. It's a different mood in the country that may not be accurately measured in the usual polling ways.

No, it's not a different mood.

Its the fact that we have a senate that gives votes to states with less than a million people in them.

So the states that will put the GOP over the top are

Alaska- 735,132
Montana - 989,415
South Dakota- 814,180
West Virginia - 1,852,994

The last three are only in play because the current Democrat retired.

In fact, the only large state that is in play in this senate contest is North Carolina.

 

[JoeB131]

[
Nope....Working Folks generally go Republican unless they're union. White females generally go Republican. The young are fairly narrowly split. Blacks are really the only demo blacks that can reliably be said to always go for one party. Not exactly high praise when you look at Detroit, Chicago, Washington and other big cities that suck and happen to be heavily black and heavily Democrat.

Wrong on all counts.

Demographics of How Groups Voted in the 2012 Presidential Election

Blacks- 93%
Hispanics- 71%
Asian- 73%

So Minorities- firmly Democratic.

18-29 Demographic- Obama won 60% of them compared to 37 for the Weird Mormon Robot.

He won women 55-45%.

Obama won 58% of union households and 49% of non-union households.

He also won incomes under 50K 60-38%

In short, all these Demographics, the GOP got it's ass kicked last time.

But you'll win a few backwater states with small populations, and think the country loves you again.

 

[WelfareQueen]

[
Nope....Working Folks generally go Republican unless they're union. White females generally go Republican. The young are fairly narrowly split. Blacks are really the only demo blacks that can reliably be said to always go for one party. Not exactly high praise when you look at Detroit, Chicago, Washington and other big cities that suck and happen to be heavily black and heavily Democrat.

Wrong on all counts.

Demographics of How Groups Voted in the 2012 Presidential Election

Blacks- 93%
Hispanics- 71%
Asian- 73%

So Minorities- firmly Democratic.

18-29 Demographic- Obama won 60% of them compared to 37 for the Weird Mormon Robot.

He won women 55-45%.

Obama won 58% of union households and 49% of non-union households.

He also won incomes under 50K 60-38%

In short, all these Demographics, the GOP got it's ass kicked last time.

But you'll win a few backwater states with small populations, and think the country loves you again.

One election with a minority candidate. Hispanics voted much more heavily for Bush. They can be swayed. Ditto young voters. Blacks seem to be the only voting blocs that are totally locked in.

 

[JoeB131]

[

One election with a minority candidate. Hispanics voted much more heavily for Bush. They can be swayed. Ditto young voters. Blacks seem to be the only voting blocs that are totally locked in.

Uh, no, guy.

The GOP has to change their fucking tune to sway people.

Bush got more of the Hispanic vote because he stood up to the Minutemen and nativists and called for immigration reform.

10 years later, that hasn't happened. Republicans have been the ones blocking it.

 

[Dot Com]

[

One election with a minority candidate. Hispanics voted much more heavily for Bush. They can be swayed. Ditto young voters. Blacks seem to be the only voting blocs that are totally locked in.

Uh, no, guy.

The GOP has to change their fucking tune to sway people.

Bush got more of the Hispanic vote because he stood up to the Minutemen and nativists and called for immigration reform.

10 years later, that hasn't happened. Republicans have been the ones blocking it.

^ that

 

[WelfareQueen]

I want immigration reform. I think most Americans do. The question: Do folks trust Obama with enforcement. Would you?

 

[JoeB131]

I want immigration reform. I think most Americans do. The question: Do folks trust Obama with enforcement. Would you?

HOw can it be worse than what we are doing now?

The reason why Simpson Mazolli was such an epic fail is that it relied on the very employers who were hiring illegal labor to be the ones to enforce workplace eligibility.

When I was interviewing in 2001, there was this one place I interviewed where the guy said in no uncertain terms, "Well, as long as they got something that looks good, that's okay with me.'

The warehouse crew were all immigrants, most of them didn't speak English, and I doubt he was paying them that much.