2014 US Senate predictions

[william the wie]

The GOP should win the Senate. They should have won it in 2012 though... They can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory but that shouldn't happen this time.

The real question is how much Obama's strategy of Ocare implementation delay suppresses D turnout and increases R turnout? That will be answered this year. Blue state finances keep getting lower bond ratings and predominantly Red states will benefit the most from automation due to lower taxes. That should kick in by 2016.

Unlikely that there will be much change on the ground based on that in 2016. The reason is that for the vast majority of Americans, Obamacare hasn't mattered a bit; their insurance hasn't changed except that they can now keep their kids on up to the age of 26. The exchanges for those who do not have insurance and now are forced to pay to buy insurance will be disasters for the Democrats since this hits the pocketbook.

I think what the crucial number is whether there are enough voters in swing states that had to change from their policies and doctors and are upset about it in the first part. In the second part, the calculation of whether or not to blame the presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton for Obamacare and are only voting on that topic.

There are 64 votes the GOP needs to swing. Assuming the GOP keeps all that they won in 2012, the GOP needs to add two big states and 2-4 little ones. It's hard to see that sort of swap but it isn't impossible to believe that there will be enough vitriol to cause it.

This may be the most interesting election that we have seen in a long time.

Some disagreement.

Since the establishment GOP has no unifying ideology no one votes for the Rs. Given that current D ideological positions come from 1880s Europe and thus predates the mass market that originated in the 1920s the Rs can be confident that being the un-D will work most of the time.

Eventually this cruise control politics will bite us in the butt since it is at least three massive economic changes behind the times: the mass market; the electronics revolution (that began in the 1890s and is still expanding) and the logistics revolution that took off in the great war and is also still expanding.

The most probable time for this butt biting is when the peak of the CONUS baby boom turns 62 in 2020. Strauss & Howe made this point in 1992. So we should see increasing political volatility until at least 2021 and probably longer.

 

[Synthaholic]

FL will remain red.

If you are claiming Rick Scott will beat Charlie Crist, you're dreaming.

Crist's appeal with the retirees can not be over-stated, plus Floridians remember him as a good governor who presided over good growth. He also handled emergencies well. He'll get plenty of Republican votes, where Scott will get zero Democratic votes.

 

[Synthaholic]

Republicans pick up South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Alaska, Louisiana, and Michigan in the Senate. They pick up governorships in Arkansas, Illinois, and Hawaii. The Democrats pick up governorships in Pennsylvania, Florida, and maybe Maine.

The Republicans net a few more seats in the House.

Hawaii? No way. It's staying Blue.

See this website it makes some good predictions. Summary:
Dems Gain: Maine, Florida
GOP Gain: Arkansas, Illinois
2014 Gubernatorial Races: Polls, Projections, Results - Election Projection

I like this better:

RealClearPolitics - Latest Polls

 

[Synthaholic]

Elections will largely depend on whether ObamaCare continues to grow in popularity. ObamaCare started out to be a big negative for any candidate supporting it, but has steadily climbed and is now pretty much a neutral thing. I don't see any sign of the upward trend reversing.

I haven't seen any data supporting your position what is your source?

They've now passed 4 million in signups, in addition to 3 million young people staying on parent's insurance, along with 3.3 million added with the Medicaid expansion.

 

[Synthaholic]

Scott against anyone but Sink or Crist would be polling 30 points back. I'm not complaining but how in hell do the Ds manage to come up with such turkeys?

Crist was a good governor, and Sink was a good CFO.

Do you have evidence to the contrary?

I mean, neither of them were indicted on Medicare fraud or anything . . .

 

[william the wie]

I live in FL. Sink avoided FL indictment by the skin of her teeth and political influence. Crist was rejected by the Rs first and then the general electorate last time around. Crist is polling well now and might win but like I said with anyone else it wouldn't even be close.

 

[Synthaholic]

I live in FL. Sink avoided FL indictment by the skin of her teeth and political influence. Crist was rejected by the Rs first and then the general electorate last time around. Crist is polling well now and might win but like I said with anyone else it wouldn't even be close.

I am also a resident. What indictment?

 

[Mad_Cabbie]

It should be a landslide for the Republicans! There is a good chance of a 51-52 R senate, and the House will gain R seats. This should be obvious to anyone!

Bookmarked for future comedic value.

 

[BreezeWood]

I live in FL. Sink avoided ...

National GOP turns on Florida candidate - Alex Isenstadt - POLITICO.com

Despite Jolly’s problems, polls show a close race, with Sink narrowly ahead heading into the election.

Florida's 13th District Special Election - Tuesday, March 11th.


the election will be this Tuesday between Sink and Jolly, clearly a bell weather for the midterms - and which party will have the advantage if only temporarily heading into the Summer.

.

 

[candycorn]

Dems hold Senate 51-49
Dems pick up 8 seats in the House
Dems pick up two Governorships

Things stay the same

Man, I hope you're right. I don't see it happening though.

 

[WelfareQueen]

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball has been one of the most accurate predictors over the last ten years. Right now....He has it R-49 D-48 with three seats toss ups. Those are North Carolina, Alaska, and Louisiana. He is saying R-net gain 4 to 8 seats.

I can tell you right now the Dems lose North Carolina. So then it comes down to Alaska and Louisiana. I have no clue what will happen in those States.

Here's the link. Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2014 Senate

 

[Nyvin]

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball has been one of the most accurate predictors over the last ten years. Right now....He has it R-49 D-48 with three seats toss ups. Those are North Carolina, Alaska, and Louisiana. He is saying R-net gain 4 to 8 seats.

I can tell you right now the Dems lose North Carolina. So then it comes down to Alaska and Louisiana. I have no clue what will happen in those States.

Here's the link. Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2014 Senate

North Carolina is the least conservative of the three, why pick that one?

 

[WelfareQueen]

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball has been one of the most accurate predictors over the last ten years. Right now....He has it R-49 D-48 with three seats toss ups. Those are North Carolina, Alaska, and Louisiana. He is saying R-net gain 4 to 8 seats.

I can tell you right now the Dems lose North Carolina. So then it comes down to Alaska and Louisiana. I have no clue what will happen in those States.

Here's the link. Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2014 Senate

North Carolina is the least conservative of the three, why pick that one?

I live next door to North Carolina and have family there. The State narrowly went for Romney. Kay Hagen repeated the "if you like your plan, you can keep your plan," over and over. She is seen in the State as an Obama rubber stamp. She will not win re-election. Bank on it.

The other two States, I cannot comment on because I do not know them politically.

 

[Interpol]

At the time that this thread went up, incumbent Democratic Arkansas senator Mark Pryor was behind an average of 3-5 points to his Republican opponent.

Pryor was seen as one of the 2008 winners who didn't stand a chance at re-election this fall, but in the last two months he has enjoyed a 15 point swing in his favor, now leading by an average of 10 points.

Why? Because his opponent wants to raise the retirement age to 70 and wants to voucherize Medicare, two things that aren't even popular among many older Republicans.

I've said it all year so far that November is for Republicans to lose, and though the trends seem to be working against the Democrats in theory, in lived reality the Republican agenda is not popular with the public even in a state like Arkansas, which Obama lost by like 18 points.

 

[mamooth]

It's all about turnout, turnout, turnout. The Democrats hold more popular positions, but that doesn't mean anything if they don't get their voters to the polls.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

It's all about turnout, turnout, turnout. The Democrats hold more popular positions, but that doesn't mean anything if they don't get their voters to the polls.

If their positions were so popular then I'd think they'd have little problem getting them there.

 

[Nyvin]

At the time that this thread went up, incumbent Democratic Arkansas senator Mark Pryor was behind an average of 3-5 points to his Republican opponent.

Pryor was seen as one of the 2008 winners who didn't stand a chance at re-election this fall, but in the last two months he has enjoyed a 15 point swing in his favor, now leading by an average of 10 points.

Why? Because his opponent wants to raise the retirement age to 70 and wants to voucherize Medicare, two things that aren't even popular among many older Republicans.

I've said it all year so far that November is for Republicans to lose, and though the trends seem to be working against the Democrats in theory, in lived reality the Republican agenda is not popular with the public even in a state like Arkansas, which Obama lost by like 18 points.

If Pryor wins in 2014...it will be entirely because Tom Cotton was an idiot and destroyed himself. And right now it's looking like that's exactly what he's going to do.

Everything I've read about that guy indicates he's an idiot to me, I'm not just being partisan here, I truly think he's a moron.

 

[Missourian]

My prediction...no matter which party wins, we the people lose.

 

[natstew]

My prediction...no matter which party wins, we the people lose.

Now that right there is a sure bet!

 

[sameech]

I live next door to North Carolina and have family there. The State narrowly went for Romney. Kay Hagen repeated the "if you like your plan, you can keep your plan," over and over. She is seen in the State as an Obama rubber stamp. She will not win re-election. Bank on it.

The other two States, I cannot comment on because I do not know them politically.

I agree, though it will be more complex an issue than "if you like your plan, you can keep it" by my measure. Hagen will be outspent 2 or 3 to one in the end and therein will be the ballgame.