2014 US Senate predictions

[Hoosier4Liberty]

United States Senate elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For the specific Senate predictions per state, post here.

Based on current evidence, here are the winners for the competitive states in my projection:
-Kentucky-McConnell barely. The state's nearly 30 points more GOP in its spread than the national average, but McConnell's approval ratings stink and Grimes could manage to win statewide.
-Georgia-Whoever wins the GOP primary, most likely Phil Gingrey. I wouldn't be surprised if Michelle Nunn wins in November, but she won't get the 50% needed to avoid a runoff, and Dem turnout always tanks in December elections in this state.
-Alaska: Sullivan should win this one fairly easily so long as Joe Miller doesn't decided to be a retard and run as an independent.
-Arkansas: Pryor's done with Cotton. Polling confirms this, and the state has moved far to the right. Should be safe.
-North Carolina: Thom Tillis. He's leading in the primary and general polling. Hagan is down against everyone and it's hard to see her recover.
-Louisiana: This is a true tossup, but I might give Landrieu the tiniest of edges on this one. This election will be guaranteed to be a runoff(Jungle primary system in LA) between Cassidy and Landrieu. Unless this state is to decide control of the Senate, I think Landrieu's shown with her durability she can barely eke it out.
-Michigan: Terry Land. The GOP does very well in Michigan during midterm elections as shown by 2010. She's a popular secretary of state and should win this one.
-South Dakota/Montana/West Virginia: These should all be safe GOP pickups, though Montana is a bit shaky thanks to the Walsh appointment to the Senate. But Walsh is corrupt enough that he should go down in flames in Novebmer.
-Iowa: Barely Braley. I think Matt Whittaker's a decent candidate, and Iowa could very well go down in a GOP wave. I have the same feelings about Oregon, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.
-Virginia: Mark Warner. Despite the buzz about this race, Mark Warner's very popular and it would take a true GOP crush day to see him lose.
-Colorado: This should be a GOP pickup as Udall is quite vulnerable. But Ken ****ing Buck decides that he has to run again. Owen Hill, Amy Stephens, and other candidates would all likely win, but Ken Buck appears poised to win the primary and thus Udall is favored to win. This race deeply annoys me.

All the other races not mentioned are safe. My calculations give the GOP a 7 seat gain for control of the Senate with 52 seats.

What are your predictions?

 

[Nyvin]

Terri Land is going through a lawsuit with cooperating with Super PACs right now. She has to survive that before the race can be called.

Also the only real reason she's polling ahead is she has better name recognition then Peters. Once the public becomes more aware of her hardcore conservative rhetoric it will probably turn off Michigan voters who are actually on the moderate side. There isn't much of a "hardcore conservative" base in Michigan. She does have skeletons in the closet that will haunt her from her 8 years as Sec of State and the RNC stuff she ran.

I still see North Carolina, Alaska, and Kentucky as toss-ups. Georgia still depends on the GOP primary which isn't really decided yet, it will be funny if Paul Broun wins it and slips up the race to Nunn.

I'll admit Montana most likely will go to Steve Daines. He's a tough match honestly.

 

[Nyvin]

When the GOP fails to win the senate AND loses ground in the house... will their tears still taste so sweet?

Or will they be less satisfying because of how little effort it took to beat them this time around?

The way I see it...the GOP gains seats in the Senate, the Democrats gain Governorships. I don't see it as a very significant election.

 

[HenryBHough]

Ah the sweet smell of impeachment..........

Coming soon to a country that used to be free.

 

[Interpol]

When you take away the 36 senate races being contended in November, it leaves 34 Democrats (including those Independents that caucus with them) and 30 Republicans.

Republicans need to win 21 of 36 for the Senate majority. 20 will not do, because Biden is the tiebreaker.

I just don't see a pathway to 51 for the GOP this year, particularly when we get to know at least a couple of the really strange characters we have yet to meet who will be running as Teabagger Republicans, and who will say crazy shit that will turn people off who are moderates.

I too think Udall and Warner will hang on. Landrieu I'm not sure.

If McConnell can't hang on in Kentucky (there seems to be some Mitch-fatigue out that way) then fuggedaboudit, that means the Democrats will have had a good election night.

I'm not sure the Democrats can turn the House, but they can probably pick off another half dozen seats.

 

[SayMyName]

Americans are so resigned to the conduct of the status quo, that I think they will vote the same way they normally do out of apathy. The House and Senate will remain roughly the same as now, with perhaps one or two wild cards coming in from parties out side the main two, meaning Libertarian or Independents.

 

[birddog]

It should be a landslide for the Republicans! There is a good chance of a 51-52 R senate, and the House will gain R seats. This should be obvious to anyone!

 

[WelfareQueen]

The oodsmakers are saying a 60% chance the Republicans take the Senate. That sounds about right to me.

 

[Zander]

Republicans will win 6-9 Senate seats and take control of the Senate.

Republicans will add to their House majority.

Obamacare will be a yoke around the neck of every Democrat in the country.

It's like 2010 all over again..

 

[Synthaholic]

United States Senate elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For the specific Senate predictions per state, post here.

Based on current evidence, here are the winners for the competitive states in my projection:
-Kentucky-McConnell barely. The state's nearly 30 points more GOP in its spread than the national average, but McConnell's approval ratings stink and Grimes could manage to win statewide.
-Georgia-Whoever wins the GOP primary, most likely Phil Gingrey. I wouldn't be surprised if Michelle Nunn wins in November, but she won't get the 50% needed to avoid a runoff, and Dem turnout always tanks in December elections in this state.
-Alaska: Sullivan should win this one fairly easily so long as Joe Miller doesn't decided to be a retard and run as an independent.
-Arkansas: Pryor's done with Cotton. Polling confirms this, and the state has moved far to the right. Should be safe.
-North Carolina: Thom Tillis. He's leading in the primary and general polling. Hagan is down against everyone and it's hard to see her recover.
-Louisiana: This is a true tossup, but I might give Landrieu the tiniest of edges on this one. This election will be guaranteed to be a runoff(Jungle primary system in LA) between Cassidy and Landrieu. Unless this state is to decide control of the Senate, I think Landrieu's shown with her durability she can barely eke it out.
-Michigan: Terry Land. The GOP does very well in Michigan during midterm elections as shown by 2010. She's a popular secretary of state and should win this one.
-South Dakota/Montana/West Virginia: These should all be safe GOP pickups, though Montana is a bit shaky thanks to the Walsh appointment to the Senate. But Walsh is corrupt enough that he should go down in flames in Novebmer.
-Iowa: Barely Braley. I think Matt Whittaker's a decent candidate, and Iowa could very well go down in a GOP wave. I have the same feelings about Oregon, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.
-Virginia: Mark Warner. Despite the buzz about this race, Mark Warner's very popular and it would take a true GOP crush day to see him lose.
-Colorado: This should be a GOP pickup as Udall is quite vulnerable. But Ken ****ing Buck decides that he has to run again. Owen Hill, Amy Stephens, and other candidates would all likely win, but Ken Buck appears poised to win the primary and thus Udall is favored to win. This race deeply annoys me.

All the other races not mentioned are safe. My calculations give the GOP a 7 seat gain for control of the Senate with 52 seats.

What are your predictions?

I think Yurtle The Turtle finally becomes a highly paid lobbyist come November, with Grimes beating him, thanks to an assist from teabagger Bevins.

Pryor over Cotton, mainly because Cotton comes off as a real dope, and even Arkansans can see it. Plus, Billary are planning on campaigning for Pryor, and they are still hugely popular in the state.

Nunn in Georgia. It's very close to becoming a Blue state right now, and the teabaggers will seriously damage each other in the primary.

Udall in Colorado.

Landrieu in Louisiana.

Warner in Virginia.

 

[rightwinger]

Dems hold Senate 51-49
Dems pick up 8 seats in the House
Dems pick up two Governorships

Things stay the same

 

[JakeStarkey]

Republicans will win 6-9 Senate seats and take control of the Senate.

Republicans will add to their House majority.

Obamacare will be a yoke around the neck of every Democrat in the country.

It's like 2010 all over again..

Yes, if we drop the far right TeaP stupidity and concentrate on ACA reform as well as reaching out to honestly to women, Hispanics, minorities, and immigrant needs.

 

[Nyvin]

Republicans will win 6-9 Senate seats and take control of the Senate.

Republicans will add to their House majority.

Obamacare will be a yoke around the neck of every Democrat in the country.

It's like 2010 all over again..

9 seats is probably too high. 8 is most likely the max, and even that is really aiming high.

51-52 GOP senators is realistic (+6-7 seats) 53 would be a clean sweep and no Dem wins in GA or KY (+8 seats)

I don't see 9 seats being available, and remember with 8 you're talking about beating a heck of a lot of incumbents which doesn't happen all that often.

 

[Hoosier4Liberty]

The oodsmakers are saying a 60% chance the Republicans take the Senate. That sounds about right to me.

That's almost exactly what my own mathematical simulation shows:
http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/337481-gop-has-60-chance-of-taking-back-senate-in-2014-a.html

Though now it would be a little different, I'd put NC/MI as redder and KY as bluer than before.

It should be a landslide for the Republicans! There is a good chance of a 51-52 R senate, and the House will gain R seats. This should be obvious to anyone!

I agree 100% with House seats. I don't know what the liberals are smoking here thinking Dems will gain house seats. 2014 will be a much better environment for them than 2012, so their logic is absolutely inane. Senate, I'm forecasting 51-52 seats right now based on my mathematical predictions, but Kentucky is really, really scaring me. If only Matt Bevin weren't a complete idiot and hypocrite.

 

[Synthaholic]

Dems hold Senate 51-49
Dems pick up 8 seats in the House
Dems pick up two Governorships

Things stay the same

Which two?

 

[Synthaholic]

The oodsmakers are saying a 60% chance the Republicans take the Senate. That sounds about right to me.

That's almost exactly what my own mathematical simulation shows:
http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/337481-gop-has-60-chance-of-taking-back-senate-in-2014-a.html

Though now it would be a little different, I'd put NC/MI as redder and KY as bluer than before.

It should be a landslide for the Republicans! There is a good chance of a 51-52 R senate, and the House will gain R seats. This should be obvious to anyone!

I agree 100% with House seats. I don't know what the liberals are smoking here thinking Dems will gain house seats. 2014 will be a much better environment for them than 2010, so their logic is absolutely inane. Senate, I'm forecasting 51-52 seats right now based on my mathematical predictions, but Kentucky is really, really scaring me. If only Matt Bevin weren't a complete idiot and hypocrite.

Bachmann is retiring, so that's an opportunity for Democrats.

Alex Sink will beat Jolly in Florida.

Cotton is running for Senate, so that's another chance. Ditto Gingrey.

Southerland is weak.

The Cocaine Cowboy is out, but Naples, FL is pretty Republican, so they will prolly hold that one.

Bill Maher is promoting his #flipadistrict, which may be very effective. I hope he picks Paul Ryan, who is not as strong in his district as you would think. Rob Zerban may actually beat him this time.

 

[Interpol]

There is clearly a greater hunger in the land today for immigration reform to pass than there was 4 years ago.

There is a greater hunger to raise the minimum wage than there was 4 years ago.

Republicans will trot out their Obamacare canard all year, and it will please their base, but I just don't see anywhere near the excitement on their side that they had 4 years ago.

Republicans had the greater hunger 4 years ago while younger Democratic voters didn't realize the importance of midterm elections.

This year it seems there is a more progressive groundswell out there than in 2010, and it should make things interesting in the House.

 

[william the wie]

The news on the ACA from insurance company quarterly reports will not hit until June 30 for those who signed up last year and Sept. 30 for those signing up this year. The analysis of that data will decide the size of the mid-term results.

 

[Nyvin]

Dems hold Senate 51-49
Dems pick up 8 seats in the House
Dems pick up two Governorships

Things stay the same

Which two?

Pennsylvania and Maine are almost a shoe in at this point. Florida is leaning toward Crist (D), but not solid yet.

Michigan, Arizona, and Ohio are possibilities. I guess we'll see about Texas (don't count on it)

The Republicans might pick up Arkansas.

 

[Hoosier4Liberty]

The oodsmakers are saying a 60% chance the Republicans take the Senate. That sounds about right to me.

That's almost exactly what my own mathematical simulation shows:
http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/337481-gop-has-60-chance-of-taking-back-senate-in-2014-a.html

Though now it would be a little different, I'd put NC/MI as redder and KY as bluer than before.

It should be a landslide for the Republicans! There is a good chance of a 51-52 R senate, and the House will gain R seats. This should be obvious to anyone!

I agree 100% with House seats. I don't know what the liberals are smoking here thinking Dems will gain house seats. 2014 will be a much better environment for them than 2012, so their logic is absolutely inane. Senate, I'm forecasting 51-52 seats right now based on my mathematical predictions, but Kentucky is really, really scaring me. If only Matt Bevin weren't a complete idiot and hypocrite.

Bachmann is retiring, so that's an opportunity for Democrats.

Alex Sink will beat Jolly in Florida.

Cotton is running for Senate, so that's another chance. Ditto Gingrey.

Southerland is weak.

The Cocaine Cowboy is out, but Naples, FL is pretty Republican, so they will prolly hold that one.

Bill Maher is promoting his #flipadistrict, which may be very effective. I hope he picks Paul Ryan, who is not as strong in his district as you would think. Rob Zerban may actually beat him this time.

Bachmann's retiring, if anything, will make it easier for the GOP to hold that seat. Bachmann's 2012 challenger got out of the race once she retired.
Alex Sink and David Jolly are in a very, very close race.
Gingrey and Cotton are in very GOP districts.


Besides, we have Dem retirements with Jim Matheson and Mike McIntyre in very GOP districts. Plus, Nick Rahall is very vulnerable this time around.

EDIT: Sorry for the confusion, I meant a better environment than 2012 for the House, not 2010. My mistake.