2014 US Senate predictions

[william the wie]

Dems hold Senate 51-49
Dems pick up 8 seats in the House
Dems pick up two Governorships

Things stay the same

Have you studied it closely enough to determine which seats the Dems lose?
I hope you're right.

It depends of the net approval/disapproval of the sitting president at the time of the election for federal offices. At the state level it is all local as in I thought and still think Scott would not stand a chance against a sock-puppet but against Christ he's about a 9-8 underdog at worst.

 

[Synthaholic]

While I know this is an intellectual exercise I am amazed how many people seem to be speaking with such authority. Will someone please resuscitate this thread after the elections.

The lesson I learned in the last election was that my perception of what was happening ended up having no relationship to the reality. In fl the vote was close to fifty fifty in the pres election which meant that every other person I met should have been an Obama supporter. But my experience was that 75 to 80 percent of the people I met professed to be against Obama. In traveling from ala. To s. Fla. To n. Carolina the bumper stickers on the interstates were four to one for Romney. Every small business person I talked to was anti obama . In my county which was overwhelmingly democratic Romney won the vote 60-40. So all I can conclude is that I don't know the people that voted for Obama and they don't know me. A troubling assessment about a truly divided country.

As far as the fl gov election we may have two of the weakest candidates on record. Scott who is known as skeletor Has alienated many state workers but may be able to patch up the snubs enough to win election vs crist. Crist, who is known as hypocrist, is the most pathetic ,spineless, and two faced politician in fl. He changes parties more than most people change underwear and his only motivation is to hold political office. Trying to call this election at this point is a fools errand.

You think the number of bumper stickers is determinate?

There are many people like me who just will not put a bumper sticker of any kind on their auto.

And some on the Left are rightly fearful of getting fired for displaying a Liberal sticker:

Duck Dynasty Lesson: When Free Speech Can Cost You Your Job - MainStreet

Woman fired for having pro-John Kerry bumper sticker on her car. | Stupid Evil Bastard

The insubordinate bumper sticker.

 

[Truthmatters]

the right can be violent.

I don't use bumper stickers either

 

[GHook93]

Dems hold Senate 51-49
Dems pick up 8 seats in the House
Dems pick up two Governorships

Things stay the same

Which two?

Pennsylvania and Maine are almost a shoe in at this point. Florida is leaning toward Crist (D), but not solid yet.

Michigan, Arizona, and Ohio are possibilities. I guess we'll see about Texas (don't count on it)

The Republicans might pick up Arkansas.

PA is a shoe in. However, Maine is far from a shoe in. Republicans will pick up AR. And don't count on D's winning MI, AZ or OH. FL will remain red.

IL is going Red without a doubt. Right now Bruce Rauner is going to WIPE Quinn. Quinn won by less than 100 votes in the last election against Brady. Brady lost on the far right social issues, esp abortion. Rauner is an outside and social moderate. Heck we really don't know his views on abortion and I wouldn't be surprised to he him could out as pro-choice leaning. Nevertheless, the election will be on the economy. IL is in the worst shape in the nation. Even Democrats view Quinn as a failure. Rauner's strong business background and outsider appearance will destroy Quinn. I see a landslide victory!

 

[GHook93]

Republicans pick up South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Alaska, Louisiana, and Michigan in the Senate. They pick up governorships in Arkansas, Illinois, and Hawaii. The Democrats pick up governorships in Pennsylvania, Florida, and maybe Maine.

The Republicans net a few more seats in the House.

Hawaii? No way. It's staying Blue.

See this website it makes some good predictions. Summary:
Dems Gain: Maine, Florida
GOP Gain: Arkansas, Illinois
2014 Gubernatorial Races: Polls, Projections, Results - Election Projection

 

[birddog]

I was at a Lincoln Dinner Sat night, and Rauner was one of the speakers. He was an absolute firebrand when he spoke! I don't know his total position on the Second Amendment, but if he's the one to take back the governorship, so be it!

Quinn is toast!

 

[william the wie]

I was at a Lincoln Dinner Sat night, and Rauner was one of the speakers. He was an absolute firebrand when he spoke! I don't know his total position on the Second Amendment, but if he's the one to take back the governorship, so be it!

Quinn is toast!

You may be right on outcome but wrong on causation. Chicago recently was downgraded to BBB+ with negative outlook, junk ratings start at BBB-. IL as a whole is rated A, the lowest rating for any US state. IL and Chicago in particular have been in default on vendor credit for years.

IL is teetering on the brink but with the Illinois Canal you should avoid the title of next Detroit but it will look like that is what is coming.

 

[mamooth]

Elections will largely depend on whether ObamaCare continues to grow in popularity. ObamaCare started out to be a big negative for any candidate supporting it, but has steadily climbed and is now pretty much a neutral thing. I don't see any sign of the upward trend reversing.

 

[william the wie]

Elections will largely depend on whether ObamaCare continues to grow in popularity. ObamaCare started out to be a big negative for any candidate supporting it, but has steadily climbed and is now pretty much a neutral thing. I don't see any sign of the upward trend reversing.

I haven't seen any data supporting your position what is your source?

 

[Nyvin]

Which two?

Pennsylvania and Maine are almost a shoe in at this point. Florida is leaning toward Crist (D), but not solid yet.

Michigan, Arizona, and Ohio are possibilities. I guess we'll see about Texas (don't count on it)

The Republicans might pick up Arkansas.

PA is a shoe in. However, Maine is far from a shoe in. Republicans will pick up AR. And don't count on D's winning MI, AZ or OH. FL will remain red.

IL is going Red without a doubt. Right now Bruce Rauner is going to WIPE Quinn. Quinn won by less than 100 votes in the last election against Brady. Brady lost on the far right social issues, esp abortion. Rauner is an outside and social moderate. Heck we really don't know his views on abortion and I wouldn't be surprised to he him could out as pro-choice leaning. Nevertheless, the election will be on the economy. IL is in the worst shape in the nation. Even Democrats view Quinn as a failure. Rauner's strong business background and outsider appearance will destroy Quinn. I see a landslide victory!

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Florida Governor - Scott vs. Crist

Pretty much every single poll that's out recently is showing Crist leading Scott, sometimes by >5%. There is absolutely no way to definitively say the GOP will win the Florida governor house this year. I'm not saying Crist has it on lockdown, but he's certainly currently favored to win.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Arkansas Governor - Hutchinson vs. Ross

In Arkansas Hutch has an advantage, but it's always less then 5%, and sometimes Ross picks up a poll here and there. Arkansas has a long history of electing democrats to state offices. The reason it's favored for the GOP to win is because Beebe is term limited.

Both Sabato and Crystal have the Maine governor race as leans democrat.

The Arizona race will be particularly interesting I think, since Brewer is term limited and the state is rapidly changing. The polls have shown both sides winning so hard to tell at this point.

 

[william the wie]

Scott against anyone but Sink or Crist would be polling 30 points back. I'm not complaining but how in hell do the Ds manage to come up with such turkeys?

 

[Zander]

Scott against anyone but Sink or Crist would be polling 30 points back. I'm not complaining but how in hell do the Ds manage to come up with such turkeys?

They copied the Republicans.....

 

[william the wie]

Can't rep you Zander, that was a good one.

 

[WelfareQueen]

Can't rep you Zander, that was a good one.

I repped him for you.

 

[william the wie]

Thank you.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Elections will largely depend on whether ObamaCare continues to grow in popularity. ObamaCare started out to be a big negative for any candidate supporting it, but has steadily climbed and is now pretty much a neutral thing.

On what planet?

 

[mamooth]

Elections will largely depend on whether ObamaCare continues to grow in popularity. ObamaCare started out to be a big negative for any candidate supporting it, but has steadily climbed and is now pretty much a neutral thing.

On what planet?

The planet where you'll choose to ignore all the data you don't like.

Poll: Support Rises for Lawmakers Who Back Obamacare - Washington Wire - WSJ
---
The survey found respondents almost exactly split on the question of whether they would be more or less likely to vote for a congressional candidate who supports the Affordable Care Act, with 34% saying they would be more likely to vote for the candidate and 36% saying they would be less likely to do so. Some 27% said it would not make a difference.

That’s a significant jump in support levels from November—a month after the troubled launch of HealthCare.gov, the federal insurance exchange that serves 36 states—when just 21% said a candidate’s support for the law would make them more likely to vote for them, compared to 37% who said it would make them less likely to do so. A much larger percentage—40%—were indifferent.
---

 

[candycorn]

The GOP should win the Senate. They should have won it in 2012 though... They can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory but that shouldn't happen this time.

 

[william the wie]

The GOP should win the Senate. They should have won it in 2012 though... They can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory but that shouldn't happen this time.

The real question is how much Obama's strategy of Ocare implementation delay suppresses D turnout and increases R turnout? That will be answered this year. Blue state finances keep getting lower bond ratings and predominantly Red states will benefit the most from automation due to lower taxes. That should kick in by 2016.

 

[candycorn]

The GOP should win the Senate. They should have won it in 2012 though... They can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory but that shouldn't happen this time.

The real question is how much Obama's strategy of Ocare implementation delay suppresses D turnout and increases R turnout? That will be answered this year. Blue state finances keep getting lower bond ratings and predominantly Red states will benefit the most from automation due to lower taxes. That should kick in by 2016.

Unlikely that there will be much change on the ground based on that in 2016. The reason is that for the vast majority of Americans, Obamacare hasn't mattered a bit; their insurance hasn't changed except that they can now keep their kids on up to the age of 26. The exchanges for those who do not have insurance and now are forced to pay to buy insurance will be disasters for the Democrats since this hits the pocketbook.

I think what the crucial number is whether there are enough voters in swing states that had to change from their policies and doctors and are upset about it in the first part. In the second part, the calculation of whether or not to blame the presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton for Obamacare and are only voting on that topic.

There are 64 votes the GOP needs to swing. Assuming the GOP keeps all that they won in 2012, the GOP needs to add two big states and 2-4 little ones. It's hard to see that sort of swap but it isn't impossible to believe that there will be enough vitriol to cause it.

This may be the most interesting election that we have seen in a long time.