2014 US Senate predictions

[Synthaholic]

I agree with you on Walker and POTUS but I haven't seen polling data that supports your position on reelection to governor.

That's because the other shoe just dropped a few days ago.

 

[GHook93]

Even objectively looking, there doesn't seem to be any Republican incumbent seat that is vulnerable, but there are 9 to 11 vulnerable Democratic seats. Note: The Democrats won't get the national election push they got in 2008.

Here is what I see moving:
AK - Going red
AR - Pryor used to be popular, but he has fallen. He now viewed as a liberal in a red state going against s solid candidate like Cotton.
LS - A liberal in a red state in a red year with a popular red governor.
MI - Retiring incumbent. Popular Republican Governor. Non-Presidential election push. I see an upset.
MN - Franken can't steal this one. He barely won in a very blue election in 2008. This election is going red.
MT - Red state in a red year. You do the math.
NC - Hagan is very unpopular. This is a red state in a red year, with a popular red governor.
OR - Merkley should have lost in very blue 2008 if the libertarian didn't take 5% of the vote (Merkley won by 3%). That won't happen this time. This is the big upset I predict.
SD - Johnson is retiring. A red state in a red election.
VA - Battleground state. No presidential push and Warner is vulnerable.
WV - Polls show Rockefeller getting creamed. Good ridden douche bag.

In the end I see the R picking up 9 of these 11. Gaining 54 seats. Republicans will have a solid House. Therefore Obama's last 2 years will be nearly lame-duck! Nothing will be accomplished, when a lot needs to be accomplished. I wonder if Obama will take notes from Clinton and actually work with the other side. I highly doubt it!

 

[HenryBHough]

If it breaks that way look for an Executive Order dissolving Congress.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

there is a real chance the D's can gain in both the Senate and House.

There is absolutely zero chance of that.

 

[HenryBHough]

there is a real chance the D's can gain in both the Senate and House.

There is absolutely zero chance of that.

Largely will depend on how effective the Democraps are in bringing out the dead vote. If you see empty hearses going into cemeteries on election day be afraid. Very much afraid.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Republicans pick up South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Alaska, Louisiana, and Michigan in the Senate. They pick up governorships in Arkansas, Illinois, and Hawaii. The Democrats pick up governorships in Pennsylvania, Florida, and maybe Maine.

The Republicans net a few more seats in the House.

 

[Synthaholic]

Even objectively looking, there doesn't seem to be any Republican incumbent seat that is vulnerable, but there are 9 to 11 vulnerable Democratic seats. Note: The Democrats won't get the national election push they got in 2008.

Here is what I see moving:
AK - Going red
AR - Pryor used to be popular, but he has fallen. He now viewed as a liberal in a red state going against s solid candidate like Cotton.
LS - A liberal in a red state in a red year with a popular red governor.

I stopped right here because you obviously don't pay attention.

Piyush Jindal is VERY unpopular these days. From 4 days ago:

-Bobby Jindal continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country, with only 35% of voters approving of him to 53% who disapprove. Even among Republican primary voters in his home state only 37% want him to run for President, compared to 51% who think he should sit it out. Mike Huckabee is the top choice of GOP primary voters in the state at 20% to 13% for Jindal, 12% for Ted Cruz, 10% for Rand Paul, 9% for Jeb Bush, 8% each for Chris Christie and Paul Ryan, 7% for Marco Rubio, and 2% for Scott Walker.


Public Policy Polling: Bobby Jindal


​

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

It's interesting nobody is paying attention to Hawaii and Kansas. Sam Brownback is trailing his Democratic opponent by two points in the latest PPP poll. In Hawaii, Neil Abercrombie is trailing his Republican opponent by eight, which is really bad given how heavily Democratic Hawaii is.

 

[william the wie]

It's interesting nobody is paying attention to Hawaii and Kansas. Sam Brownback is trailing his Democratic opponent by two points in the latest PPP poll. In Hawaii, Neil Abercrombie is trailing his Republican opponent by eight, which is really bad given how heavily Democratic Hawaii is.

Good point.

 

[Synthaholic]

It's interesting nobody is paying attention to Hawaii and Kansas. Sam Brownback is trailing his Democratic opponent by two points in the latest PPP poll. In Hawaii, Neil Abercrombie is trailing his Republican opponent by eight, which is really bad given how heavily Democratic Hawaii is.

I mentioned Kansas:

http://www.usmessageboard.com/election-forums/340405-2014-us-senate-predictions.html#post8667882

 

[Nyvin]

Republicans pick up South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Alaska, Louisiana, and Michigan in the Senate. They pick up governorships in Arkansas, Illinois, and Hawaii. The Democrats pick up governorships in Pennsylvania, Florida, and maybe Maine.

The Republicans net a few more seats in the House.

A Republican governor in Hawaii? Hard to believe.

I also don't buy that all four incumbents in Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, and Louisiana will all lose either...that hasn't happened in a long time.

 

[candycorn]

It should be a landslide for the Republicans! There is a good chance of a 51-52 R senate, and the House will gain R seats. This should be obvious to anyone!

That is how I see it.

 

[Synthaholic]

It should be a landslide for the Republicans! There is a good chance of a 51-52 R senate, and the House will gain R seats. This should be obvious to anyone!

That is how I see it.

Then you are underestimating Obama and the Democrats. He learned from his mistake of not getting involved in the 2010 midterms. He just gave a speech talking about the need to engage and go on the offense this time.

Republicans have given Democrats all sorts of ammunition for the midterms, in every state, from Texans palling around with Ted Nugent, to Christie's corruption, to Scott Walker's corruption, to Rick Scott and his ilk denying health insurance to millions, to Snyder's bankruptcy of Detroit, to West Virginia's Republican deregulation resulting in chemically tainted water, to North Carolina's disenfranchisement of voters, and their governor being in bed with the corporation that just polluted their water.

The list goes on and on. The campaign ads write themselves.

 

[william the wie]

It should be a landslide for the Republicans! There is a good chance of a 51-52 R senate, and the House will gain R seats. This should be obvious to anyone!

That is how I see it.

Then you are underestimating Obama and the Democrats. He learned from his mistake of not getting involved in the 2010 midterms. He just gave a speech talking about the need to engage and go on the offense this time.

Republicans have given Democrats all sorts of ammunition for the midterms, in every state, from Texans palling around with Ted Nugent, to Christie's corruption, to Scott Walker's corruption, to Rick Scott and his ilk denying health insurance to millions, to Snyder's bankruptcy of Detroit, to West Virginia's Republican deregulation resulting in chemically tainted water, to North Carolina's disenfranchisement of voters, and their governor being in bed with the corporation that just polluted their water.

The list goes on and on. The campaign ads write themselves.

Even conceding all of your points, which I do not, the Ds still have to contend with:

A) Their world champion circular firing squad.

B) The D administration's continuing tap dancing over its own signature legislation.

If you look at the senate if not for non-Ds caucusing with the Ds Biden would not be able to leave the senate during any vote. So losing considerable numbers of senate seats to non-R parties like the Greens and socialists is a real possibility.

In the house the same possibility of primaries returning far more radical candidates in the primaries cannot be discounted.

In other words even if your predictions about the Rs were right that does not save you from a revolt on the left that will push independents into the arms of the Republicans.

 

[Synthaholic]

That is how I see it.

Then you are underestimating Obama and the Democrats. He learned from his mistake of not getting involved in the 2010 midterms. He just gave a speech talking about the need to engage and go on the offense this time.

Republicans have given Democrats all sorts of ammunition for the midterms, in every state, from Texans palling around with Ted Nugent, to Christie's corruption, to Scott Walker's corruption, to Rick Scott and his ilk denying health insurance to millions, to Snyder's bankruptcy of Detroit, to West Virginia's Republican deregulation resulting in chemically tainted water, to North Carolina's disenfranchisement of voters, and their governor being in bed with the corporation that just polluted their water.

The list goes on and on. The campaign ads write themselves.

Even conceding all of your points, which I do not, the Ds still have to contend with:

A) Their world champion circular firing squad.

B) The D administration's continuing tap dancing over its own signature legislation.

If you look at the senate if not for non-Ds caucusing with the Ds Biden would not be able to leave the senate during any vote. So losing considerable numbers of senate seats to non-R parties like the Greens and socialists is a real possibility.

When was the last time the Socialists or the Greens won a Senate seat? I mean, besides never?

You can point out Bernie Sanders, but he caucuses with the Democrats. As would any Socialist or Green.

In the house the same possibility of primaries returning far more radical candidates in the primaries cannot be discounted.

In other words even if your predictions about the Rs were right that does not save you from a revolt on the left that will push independents into the arms of the Republicans.

How would a revolt on the Left convince Independents to vote against their own interests or vote for extremists on the Right?

Isn't it the current revolt on the Right that has pushed Independents into the arms of Democrats? Have they stopped that revolt and become sane and rational again? No.

 

[HenryBHough]

Would be nice to see Obama campaign for as many Democrats as possible.

Kissing each one on both cheeks (OK, all four....) as he departs the stage.

Whaddya suppose those Democrat candidates might call that special kiss???

 

[Synthaholic]

Would be nice to see Obama campaign for as many Democrats as possible.

Kissing each one on both cheeks (OK, all four....) as he departs the stage.

Whaddya suppose those Democrat candidates might call that special kiss???

You are still operating under the assumption that Obama is not popular, even though he won re-election by a landslide right after the last time you were convinced he was unpopular.

 

[Nyvin]

That is how I see it.

Then you are underestimating Obama and the Democrats. He learned from his mistake of not getting involved in the 2010 midterms. He just gave a speech talking about the need to engage and go on the offense this time.

Republicans have given Democrats all sorts of ammunition for the midterms, in every state, from Texans palling around with Ted Nugent, to Christie's corruption, to Scott Walker's corruption, to Rick Scott and his ilk denying health insurance to millions, to Snyder's bankruptcy of Detroit, to West Virginia's Republican deregulation resulting in chemically tainted water, to North Carolina's disenfranchisement of voters, and their governor being in bed with the corporation that just polluted their water.

The list goes on and on. The campaign ads write themselves.

Even conceding all of your points, which I do not, the Ds still have to contend with:

A) Their world champion circular firing squad.

B) The D administration's continuing tap dancing over its own signature legislation.

If you look at the senate if not for non-Ds caucusing with the Ds Biden would not be able to leave the senate during any vote. So losing considerable numbers of senate seats to non-R parties like the Greens and socialists is a real possibility.

In the house the same possibility of primaries returning far more radical candidates in the primaries cannot be discounted.

In other words even if your predictions about the Rs were right that does not save you from a revolt on the left that will push independents into the arms of the Republicans.

If the Greens and Socialists suddenly win a bunch of seats in the Senate...do you really think they're going to side with the Republicans on...pretty much anything???

Bernie Sanders is independent because he thinks the Democrats aren't left wing "enough" he advocated for single payer health care reform. The idea of Greens and Socialist winning seats and that being a bad thing for Democrats is idiotic.

 

[eagle1462010]

This election clearly has the Dems more at risk of losing seats. They also have a POTUS who is unpopular to boot.........economy still stinks and the people will make the Party in charge pay for it.

I'm looking at 51 Republicans in the Senate or even possibly a tie as the infighting in the GOP will cause possible casualties..........

The GOP will hold the Senate and gain about 12 seats there.

 

[HenryBHough]

Would be nice to see Obama campaign for as many Democrats as possible.

Kissing each one on both cheeks (OK, all four....) as he departs the stage.

Whaddya suppose those Democrat candidates might call that special kiss???

You are still operating under the assumption that Obama is not popular, even though he won re-election by a landslide right after the last time you were convinced he was unpopular.

Was the question too hard?