Where Does The Glacial Tipping Point Reside?

[Crick]

Ignoring the moron thread hijack....

I found a much better depiction of the Antarctic circumpolar circulation. It shows just how inclusive the circulations really are.

View attachment 32543

The slowing of the major heat transfer mechanisms will undoubtedly result in rapid glaciation..

The Southern Ocean is warming at a rapid pace. Visit this link.

http://www.whoi.edu/fileserver.do?id=50024&pt=2&p=56967

 

[Billy_Bob]

Crick you really are a fucking moron... 99.9% of all melting has already happened and all before CO2.. Your clueless posts above show your total ignorance of not only history but geological facts.

Your own studies and posting say the it wont happen for upwards of 900 to 2000 years... Quit being a fucking moron. Your cult is dying only a few of you hold this sad devotion to a lie.

Southern ocean warming from a link 15 years old... and by a global warming nutter to boot..

Every one of your links is to far left wit nut cases who couldn't do science if it hit them in the face.

 

[Billy_Bob]

What slowing of the major heat transfer mechanisms

Another moronic post by crick... The extension of ice around Antarctica has slowed the curium polar waters by CREATING DRAG ON THE SURFACE WATERS.

Its like dragging your feet while riding a bike. or trying to pull to pieces of paper laterally while weight is applied to them.

Your failure to grasp simple scientific concepts is stunning.

 

[mamooth]

As usual Billy, we await you giving any evidence to back up your "I just yanked it out my ass" weirdass science.

 

[Billy_Bob]

As usual Billy, we await you giving any evidence to back up your "I just yanked it out my ass" weirdass science.

Your problems are obvious...

 

[flacaltenn]

Ignoring the moron thread hijack....

I found a much better depiction of the Antarctic circumpolar circulation. It shows just how inclusive the circulations really are.

View attachment 32543

The slowing of the major heat transfer mechanisms will undoubtedly result in rapid glaciation..

The Southern Ocean is warming at a rapid pace. Visit this link.

http://www.whoi.edu/fileserver.do?id=50024&pt=2&p=56967

Pure Bullshit. Presentation says no such thing as regards to SURFACE temperature. I've plotted the UAH satellite data and posted it SEVERAL times before. You can't read or you can't UNDERSTAND the presentation. Because the only Southern ocean ocean warming presented at THAT link is at 400 meters and amounts to a few 1/100ths of a degree. "Rapid pace" my ass..

 

[Old Rocks]

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2389.html

The global ocean stores more than 90% of the heat associated with observed greenhouse-gas-attributed global warming1, 2, 3, 4. Using satellite altimetry observations and a large suite of climate models, we conclude that observed estimates of 0–700 dbar global ocean warming since 1970 are likely biased low. This underestimation is attributed to poor sampling of the Southern Hemisphere, and limitations of the analysis methods that conservatively estimate temperature changes in data-sparse regions5, 6, 7. We find that the partitioning of northern and southern hemispheric simulated sea surface height changes are consistent with precise altimeter observations, whereas the hemispheric partitioning of simulated upper-ocean warming is inconsistent with observed in-situ-based ocean heat content estimates. Relying on the close correspondence between hemispheric-scale ocean heat content and steric changes, we adjust the poorly constrained Southern Hemisphere observed warming estimates so that hemispheric ratios are consistent with the broad range of modelled results. These adjustments yield large increases (2.2–7.1 × 1022 J 35 yr−1) to current global upper-ocean heat content change estimates, and have important implications for sea level, the planetary energy budget and climate sensitivity assessments.

Even the lower estimate, 2.2 x 10^22 J in 35 years is a huge number and increase in heat.

 

[flacaltenn]

UAH Satellite plot of temperature anomaly 1979 to 2013 for JUST the Southern Ocean --- NOT the Southern hemisphere..

Anyone see Bullwinkles' "RAPID PACE" ????

 

[Crick]

UAH would be SST, nothing deeper.

 

[Crick]

Using satellite altimetry observations and a large suite of climate models, we conclude that observed estimates of 0–700 dbar global ocean warming since 1970 are likely biased low. This underestimation is attributed to poor sampling of the Southern Hemisphere, and limitations of the analysis methods that conservatively estimate temperature changes in data-sparse regions[1.2.3]

From:
Quantifying underestimates of long-term upper-ocean warming

• Paul J. Durack,
• Peter J. Gleckler,
• Felix W. Landerer
• & Karl E. Taylor

Recently linked to by SSDD who thought this piece refuted ocean warming.

Refs

1. Gregory, J. M., Banks, H. T., Stott, P. A., Lowe, J. A. & Palmer, M. D. Simulated and observed decadal variability in ocean heat content. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L15312 (2004).
   • Article
2. Gouretski, V. & Koltermann, K. P. How much is the ocean really warming? Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L01610 (2007).
   • Article
3. Gille, S. T. Decadal-scale temperature trends in the southern hemisphere ocean. J. Clim.21, 4749–4765 (2008).

 

[flacaltenn]

UAH would be SST, nothing deeper.

Yes of course.. The heat MAGICALLY appears at depths without ever being detected at the surface. I forgot that part of your delusion..

If it "stopped the warming" of the SURFACE of the southern ocean -- I sure as hell fail to see it.. But I'm sure that you can -- if you put on the "special hat" and click your heels 3 times..

 

[flacaltenn]

Using satellite altimetry observations and a large suite of climate models, we conclude that observed estimates of 0–700 dbar global ocean warming since 1970 are likely biased low. This underestimation is attributed to poor sampling of the Southern Hemisphere, and limitations of the analysis methods that conservatively estimate temperature changes in data-sparse regions[1.2.3]

From:
Quantifying underestimates of long-term upper-ocean warming

• Paul J. Durack,
• Peter J. Gleckler,
• Felix W. Landerer
• & Karl E. Taylor

Recently linked to by SSDD who thought this piece refuted ocean warming.

Refs

1. Gregory, J. M., Banks, H. T., Stott, P. A., Lowe, J. A. & Palmer, M. D. Simulated and observed decadal variability in ocean heat content. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L15312 (2004).
   • Article
2. Gouretski, V. & Koltermann, K. P. How much is the ocean really warming? Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L01610 (2007).
   • Article
3. Gille, S. T. Decadal-scale temperature trends in the southern hemisphere ocean. J. Clim.21, 4749–4765 (2008).

I agree ---- it's crappy and sloppy science to be focusing on a GLOBAL number for entire planet.. Doesn't give you a CLUE how it got there..

 

[Crick]

UAH would be SST, nothing deeper.

Yes of course.. The heat MAGICALLY appears at depths without ever being detected at the surface. I forgot that part of your delusion..

If it "stopped the warming" of the SURFACE of the southern ocean -- I sure as hell fail to see it.. But I'm sure that you can -- if you put on the "special hat" and click your heels 3 times..

You've apparently missed several key points that have been discussed here more than once in the last few months. The warming of the deep ocean, it has been suggested, is happening because shifts in tropical wind patterns have caused warmed surface waters to be subducted. Those subducted waters are then being replaced by colder water from the depths. This takes the heat down and cools the surface and appears to be responsible for a large portion of the observed slowdown in surface warming.

Does any of this sound familiar?

 

[Crick]

Using satellite altimetry observations and a large suite of climate models, we conclude that observed estimates of 0–700 dbar global ocean warming since 1970 are likely biased low. This underestimation is attributed to poor sampling of the Southern Hemisphere, and limitations of the analysis methods that conservatively estimate temperature changes in data-sparse regions[1.2.3]

From:
Quantifying underestimates of long-term upper-ocean warming

• Paul J. Durack,
• Peter J. Gleckler,
• Felix W. Landerer
• & Karl E. Taylor

Recently linked to by SSDD who thought this piece refuted ocean warming.

Refs

1. Gregory, J. M., Banks, H. T., Stott, P. A., Lowe, J. A. & Palmer, M. D. Simulated and observed decadal variability in ocean heat content. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L15312 (2004).
   • Article
2. Gouretski, V. & Koltermann, K. P. How much is the ocean really warming? Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L01610 (2007).
   • Article
3. Gille, S. T. Decadal-scale temperature trends in the southern hemisphere ocean. J. Clim.21, 4749–4765 (2008).

I agree ---- it's crappy and sloppy science to be focusing on a GLOBAL number for entire planet.. Doesn't give you a CLUE how it got there..

That this new analysis indicates prior estimates have been CONSERVATIVE indicates that no one has stuck their neck out further than the data on hand actually warranted.

 

[flacaltenn]

UAH would be SST, nothing deeper.

Yes of course.. The heat MAGICALLY appears at depths without ever being detected at the surface. I forgot that part of your delusion..

If it "stopped the warming" of the SURFACE of the southern ocean -- I sure as hell fail to see it.. But I'm sure that you can -- if you put on the "special hat" and click your heels 3 times..

You've apparently missed several key points that have been discussed here more than once in the last few months. The warming of the deep ocean, it has been suggested, is happening because shifts in tropical wind patterns have caused warmed surface waters to be subducted. Those subducted waters are then being replaced by colder water from the depths. This takes the heat down and cools the surface and appears to be responsible for a large portion of the observed slowdown in surface warming.

Does any of this sound familiar?

Was never windy 20 years ago down in the southern ocean? If the heat came off the surface, where is it in the plot I posted? You miss so much from your booster seat because you refuse to think for yourself and question the shit you are fed. The amount of heat in those OHC plots could be due to warming of only 10% of the volume. We might never know the underlying mechanism of how and where it is ACTUALLY warming, because the believers are only interested in fabricating a GLOBAL number out of available data....

 

[Crick]

Your irrational fixation on global averages is almost entertaining. Tell you what; why don't you fixate on explaining how satellites find more radiant energy striking the Earth than they do leaving. That is the killer observation from a denier point of view. That tells us that what EVER we may be arguing about down here, the heat is building up SOMEWHERE.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Your irrational fixation on global averages is almost entertaining. Tell you what; why don't you fixate on explaining how satellites find more radiant energy striking the Earth than they do leaving. That is the killer observation from a denier point of view. That tells us that what EVER we may be arguing about down here, the heat is building up SOMEWHERE.

Lets review the alarmist use of "SNIPETS"

 

[Billy_Bob]

I was discussing the amount of heat loss with a coworker yesterday and the amount of thermal loss at 60-70 degrees lat is 5 times that at 70-80 and 10 times that of 80-90.

As ice increases its equatorial encroachment the amount of thermal radiation, which is bounced back into space doubles and triples with each ten degrees of latitude.

When we take the 136W/M^2 and multiply it by the increase of ice 3.6 Million kl^2 You begin to see just how massively that 60-70 degree lat is to the earths thermal energy budget. that much heat loss to space can create devastating effects to our thermal balance. Antarctica has over 987 maximum low temp records just this year..

 

[mamooth]

And you leave out the much bigger sea ice loss in the Arctic, and the losses of glacial ice cover in the mid-latitudes ... why? If you included them, it would be pushing thermal balance the other way.

That is, of course, what's happening. Of course, not being crazy, nobody is claiming that it will lead to instant thermal runaway and a total meltdown of the earth. It's just classified as one positive feedback out of many positive feedbacks.

 

[Billy_Bob]

And you leave out the much bigger sea ice loss in the Arctic, and the losses of glacial ice cover in the mid-latitudes ... why? If you included them, it would be pushing thermal balance the other way.

That is, of course, what's happening. Of course, not being crazy, nobody is claiming that it will lead to instant thermal runaway and a total meltdown of the earth. It's just classified as one positive feedback out of many positive feedbacks.

what a crock of shit.. the sea ice loss is equal not bigger. With the regain of 2.3 million Kl^2 this year alone into multilayer/year ice the pendulum has already changed in the direction of rapid increase. But keep on ignoring the facts and spouting your masters lies..