Pacific Warming Natural, Not Mannmade

[SSDD]

A study recently published in the PNAS finds that the Pacific and West Coast warming so lovingly blamed on mankind's CO2 emissions is actually due to natural variation...and wonder of wonders, the paper acknowledges that the most pronounced warming of the last century happened between 1910 and 1940. In addition, they point out that even when the models know what happened, they can't replicate what happened.

Could actual science actually be happening over at NAS?

Atmospheric controls on northeast Pacific temperature variability and change 1900 2012

Abstract:

Over the last century, northeast Pacific coastal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and land-based surface air temperatures (SATs) display multidecadal variations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, in addition to a warming trend of ∼0.5–1 °C. Using independent records of sea-level pressure (SLP), SST, and SAT, this study investigates northeast (NE) Pacific coupled atmosphere–ocean variability from 1900 to 2012, with emphasis on the coastal areas around North America. We use a linear stochastic time series model to show that the SST evolution around the NE Pacific coast can be explained by a combination of regional atmospheric forcing and ocean persistence, accounting for 63% of nonseasonal monthly SST variance (r = 0.79) and 73% of variance in annual means (r = 0.86). We show that SLP reductions and related atmospheric forcing led to century-long warming around the NE Pacific margins, with the strongest trends observed from 1910–1920 to 1940. NE Pacific circulation changes are estimated to account for more than 80% of the 1900–2012 linear warming in coastal NE Pacific SST and US Pacific northwest (Washington, Oregon, and northern California) SAT. An ensemble of climate model simulations run under the same historical radiative forcings fails to reproduce the observed regional circulation trends. These results suggest that natural internally generated changes in atmospheric circulation were the primary cause of coastal NE Pacific warming from 1900 to 2012 and demonstrate more generally that regional mechanisms of interannual and multidecadal temperature variability can also extend to century time scales.

 

[Crick]

That's very nice, for the northern, US, Pacific coastline.

 

[Old Rocks]

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Figure 1
Advance and retreat patterns of glaciers in coastal Alaska linked to the regional climate signal. Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction (3) is shown with a 50-year smoothing. Times of glacier expansion, constructed from radiocarbon, tree-ring, lichen, photographic, and historic data are shown in blue with the number of systems expanding from both the western and eastern flanks of the Kenai Mountains indicated for each episode (26). The collapsing caused by the warming since A.D. 1880 left moraines (red bars). The number of moraines is a measure of the overall strength of retreat from the Kenai Mountains and other areas in the Gulf of Alaska region (27).

As climate changes so do glaciers

Why yes, the PNAS has many good peer reviewed papers. Does not always mean that the conclusions are correct, but that the evidence and observations are accurate.

 

[Billy_Bob]

A study recently published in the PNAS finds that the Pacific and West Coast warming so lovingly blamed on mankind's CO2 emissions is actually due to natural variation...and wonder of wonders, the paper acknowledges that the most pronounced warming of the last century happened between 1910 and 1940. In addition, they point out that even when the models know what happened, they can't replicate what happened.

Could actual science actually be happening over at NAS?

Atmospheric controls on northeast Pacific temperature variability and change 1900 2012

Abstract:

Over the last century, northeast Pacific coastal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and land-based surface air temperatures (SATs) display multidecadal variations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, in addition to a warming trend of ∼0.5–1 °C. Using independent records of sea-level pressure (SLP), SST, and SAT, this study investigates northeast (NE) Pacific coupled atmosphere–ocean variability from 1900 to 2012, with emphasis on the coastal areas around North America. We use a linear stochastic time series model to show that the SST evolution around the NE Pacific coast can be explained by a combination of regional atmospheric forcing and ocean persistence, accounting for 63% of nonseasonal monthly SST variance (r = 0.79) and 73% of variance in annual means (r = 0.86). We show that SLP reductions and related atmospheric forcing led to century-long warming around the NE Pacific margins, with the strongest trends observed from 1910–1920 to 1940. NE Pacific circulation changes are estimated to account for more than 80% of the 1900–2012 linear warming in coastal NE Pacific SST and US Pacific northwest (Washington, Oregon, and northern California) SAT. An ensemble of climate model simulations run under the same historical radiative forcings fails to reproduce the observed regional circulation trends. These results suggest that natural internally generated changes in atmospheric circulation were the primary cause of coastal NE Pacific warming from 1900 to 2012 and demonstrate more generally that regional mechanisms of interannual and multidecadal temperature variability can also extend to century time scales.

Something our alarmist friends can not get any of their failed models to replicate...

 

[skookerasbil]

Talk about a kick to the nut sac for the AGW alarmist k00ks!!!


They've been going off all summer about the warmer temps and drought being directly liked to AGW.


NOAA calls BS........they are undeterred.