When will the stock bubble burst?

[EdwardBaiamonte]

many "experts" don't beat the market.

that's incorrect, most experts don't beat the market

Someone who put 20% of their money in a federally insured bank savings account, and the other 80% in a random collection of stocks from around the world, picked by monkeys, would be up about 6.2% so far this year. (And that’s assuming for the sake of simplicity that you earned 0% interest on the savings. In reality, you could have done slightly better)
In other words, they would still have earned more than twice the returns of the average hedge fund.

 

[CultureCitizen]

many "experts" don't beat the market.

that's incorrect, most experts don't beat the market

Someone who put 20% of their money in a federally insured bank savings account, and the other 80% in a random collection of stocks from around the world, picked by monkeys, would be up about 6.2% so far this year. (And that’s assuming for the sake of simplicity that you earned 0% interest on the savings. In reality, you could have done slightly better)
In other words, they would still have earned more than twice the returns of the average hedge fund.

He said 9% above S&P which I find remarkable.
I had a lucky strike and did 30% per year during the silver spike. I am sure an expert could have done a lot better.

 

[Toro]

many "experts" don't beat the market.

that's incorrect, most experts don't beat the market

Someone who put 20% of their money in a federally insured bank savings account, and the other 80% in a random collection of stocks from around the world, picked by monkeys, would be up about 6.2% so far this year. (And that’s assuming for the sake of simplicity that you earned 0% interest on the savings. In reality, you could have done slightly better)
In other words, they would still have earned more than twice the returns of the average hedge fund.

Stocks are down 8% this year, Ed. I'm up 7%.

The average hedge fund was flat to slightly down in 2015, beating an 80/20 MSCI ACWI / cash portfolio.

Though, again, I wouldn't disagree that hedge fund performance hasn't been disappointing over the past several years on an absolute basis. On a risk/adjusted basis - adjusting returns for a unit of volatility - hedge funds have outperformed a balanced portfolio.

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

- hedge funds have outperformed a balanced portfolio.

total 100% BS of course:

Year after year, decade after decade, evidence has piled up that neither individual nor professional investors can outperform broad market indexes consistently over long periods of time.
Studies of fund managers, active traders, and other institutional investors have failed to find persistent outperformance that wasn’t caused by either luck or being in the right part of the market at the right time.
Eugene Fama of the University of Chicago, who won a Nobel Prize in economics last week, pioneered the efficient market theory that said stock prices incorporated all relevant information available to investors.

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I always thought that theory went too far — individual stocks and whole asset classes can remain “mispriced” for years, as Fama’s fellow Nobel winner Robert Shiller of Yale University has shown.
But over the very long run, Fama was right: Almost no one who is operating honestly can maintain a persistent information edge over the millions of other smart investors who comprise “the market.”Almost no one can beat the market

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

. I am sure an expert could have done a lot better.

totally stupid since experts don't do better and in fact under perform the market