TheGoodShepherd
Rookie
- Apr 2, 2008
- 344
- 12
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- Banned
- #61
Second, I'll answer your childish questions by saying the climate is the pattern and variation of weather in a region of a long period of time. Weather is phenomena occuring in the atmosphere for a short period of time.
I'm certified in Geography
That's about right. What makes it obvious you are a geographer and not in the field of climate science is the assumptions you make. A perfect example of your lack of knowledge on the issue is your tendency to post links about cold temperatures in Canada, or snow in wherever. As if you think that proves climate science claims wrong, or destroys the credibility of climate science methodology. Well, it does not.
A big, and I think rather embarrassing assumption you make is that you think it is hard or as difficult to predict climate as it is to predict weather. It is, in fact, extremely EASY to predict climate as opposed to weather.
To put it in laymen's terms. Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
Dice (for this example, one dice only) is a good way to think about it. If you throw the dice ten times, which number is most often thrown? What is the mean of the scores?
Now if you start throwing the dice more, the closer the mean (average) gets to 3.5, because there is an equal opportunity of throwing any 6 of the numbers on the next throw. While it is very hard to predict what the next thrown number will be, it's incredibly easy to predict that the mean will still be 3.5.
Now, associate weather types rather than numbers with the sides of the dice. We'll mark the sides of our 'weather dice' in terms of cloud cover. We'll have 0 per cent cloud cover, 20 per cent, 40 per cent, 60 per cent, 80 per cent and 100 percent.
Is it possible for BrianH to predict what the weather will be on the next throw? Just like with the numbers on the dice, there is an equal chance of each amount of cloud cover. It is severly difficult for BrianH to predict what the weather will be on the next throw.
However, we know climate is the average of the weather over a long period of time.
Which brings Brian to the next question. Can Brian predict the climate? We know Brian probably could not make a weather forecast. But Brian could make a climate prediction. He could say 50 per cent cloud cover with confidence.
The climate is the long term average. A single throw of our 'weather sided' dice won't affect the climate very much. In the exact same way we can have a very hot summer one year and a cold one the next without the climate (the weather we expect) changing.
The point is, you have a lot of homework to do on the subject of climate science. If you know weather is what we get and climate is what we expect. You would not be foolish enough to claim, if I can use the dice analogy, that one individual roll of the dice is a good way of measuring the long term average.
Climate is easier to predict than the weather. Had you been more qualified to speak on the matter, you would have already known climate prediction is far, far easier to predict than weather.
Every time you offer claims based "on one roll of the dice", you expose a great ignorance on the subject of climate science and clearly indicate to me you are certainly not in the climate science field nor a serious academic in Geography.
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