US Money is Coming out of the Market So why is it Going Up?

[william the wie]

Serious question. Part of the problem is the new nifty 50, part of it is US interest rates compared to the rest of the world but that is the classic recipe for a crash. Is it simply short coverage keeping the market up like in 1929 prior to August?

 

[MarathonMike]

I sure don't know, it has me nervous. I bought into some dividend stocks last year and made some money on them. I was going to hold them but this market defies explanation.

 

[Zander]

in my experience, rising prices+ low volume + low volatility = pending downturn. I expect the downturn to commence shortly.

 

[william the wie]

in my experience, rising prices+ low volume + low volatility = pending downturn. I expect the downturn to commence shortly.

Here"s why I disagree with the last word of your post: I'm getting 30+% APR writing covered puts on Value Line 600 stocks that are noted for their timeliness. That is why I mentioned short coverage as a main driver.

The crude rally that is getting rid of our stockpile is suspicious too. The number of E&P companies that were at 50% leverage in the $50-100/bbl and are not yet in bankruptcy is also concerning. $25-50/bbl means massive write offs in the alternative energy boondoggles. This is getting strange.

 

[Zander]

in my experience, rising prices+ low volume + low volatility = pending downturn. I expect the downturn to commence shortly.

Here"s why I disagree with the last word of your post: I'm getting 30+% APR writing covered puts on Value Line 600 stocks that are noted for their timeliness. That is why I mentioned short coverage as a main driver.

The crude rally that is getting rid of our stockpile is suspicious too. The number of E&P companies that were at 50% leverage in the $50-100/bbl and are not yet in bankruptcy is also concerning. $25-50/bbl means massive write offs in the alternative energy boondoggles. This is getting strange.

Personally, I think Oil is heading back to the $50 range. It has deep support at $42.50 and resistance is sparse until around $54.00

Regarding writing "puts" - You might be better off switching to covered Calls heading into the summer swoon?

I am of the opinion that US stocks are going to head lower (possibly MUCH lower) as we end April and start May. Today was a good start towards that. My advice is to follow the seasonal trend and "Sell in may and go away......"

 

[william the wie]

in my experience, rising prices+ low volume + low volatility = pending downturn. I expect the downturn to commence shortly.

Here"s why I disagree with the last word of your post: I'm getting 30+% APR writing covered puts on Value Line 600 stocks that are noted for their timeliness. That is why I mentioned short coverage as a main driver.

The crude rally that is getting rid of our stockpile is suspicious too. The number of E&P companies that were at 50% leverage in the $50-100/bbl and are not yet in bankruptcy is also concerning. $25-50/bbl means massive write offs in the alternative energy boondoggles. This is getting strange.

Personally, I think Oil is heading back to the $50 range. It has deep support at $42.50 and resistance is sparse until around $54.00

Regarding writing "puts" - You might be better off switching to covered Calls heading into the summer swoon?

I am of the opinion that US stocks are going to head lower (possibly MUCH lower) as we end April and start May. Today was a good start towards that. My advice is to follow the seasonal trend and "Sell in may and go away......"

in my experience, rising prices+ low volume + low volatility = pending downturn. I expect the downturn to commence shortly.

Here"s why I disagree with the last word of your post: I'm getting 30+% APR writing covered puts on Value Line 600 stocks that are noted for their timeliness. That is why I mentioned short coverage as a main driver.

The crude rally that is getting rid of our stockpile is suspicious too. The number of E&P companies that were at 50% leverage in the $50-100/bbl and are not yet in bankruptcy is also concerning. $25-50/bbl means massive write offs in the alternative energy boondoggles. This is getting strange.

Personally, I think Oil is heading back to the $50 range. It has deep support at $42.50 and resistance is sparse until around $54.00

Regarding writing "puts" - You might be better off switching to covered Calls heading into the summer swoon?

I am of the opinion that US stocks are going to head lower (possibly MUCH lower) as we end April and start May. Today was a good start towards that. My advice is to follow the seasonal trend and "Sell in may and go away......"

I failed to mention some relevant facts, my bad.

The excess premiums helped fund my XSP hedge at 19% under the then current price.

The weighted average beta of my put portfolio is @ 0.8

I have a 100+% cash cushion and I threw in a requirement of a put/call ratio of 2+.