Trying to Figure out Delta V of GDP Growth/qtr since the Election

[william the wie]

Based on the Blue to Red migration incentives incorporated in the tax-bill by the SALT and mortgage deduction caps at least one million more homes will be built in Red states simply due to migration from blue states. Most new factories will also be built in Red States due to right to work laws. So, while growth will be nationwide it will be greater in red states than blue states. Computing GDP does not include deserted Blue state structures, only new construction. So, the process of discovery will result in cutting Blue state services and state/local employment which is subtracted from GDP so net growth rates will be slightly lower than expected. The collapse of NY housing prices has already begun, it started in Sept/Oct of last year.

 

[forkup]

Based on the Blue to Red migration incentives incorporated in the tax-bill by the SALT and mortgage deduction caps at least one million more homes will be built in Red states simply due to migration from blue states. Most new factories will also be built in Red States due to right to work laws. So, while growth will be nationwide it will be greater in red states than blue states. Computing GDP does not include deserted Blue state structures, only new construction. So, the process of discovery will result in cutting Blue state services and state/local employment which is subtracted from GDP so net growth rates will be slightly lower than expected. The collapse of NY housing prices has already begun, it started in Sept/Oct of last year.

Can I ask you were you get specific numbers about events that haven't happened on a situation that has no precedent? Why do you think people will migrate from blue to red states? Why do you think the tax cuts will result in the building of factories as opposed to an increase in dividends for instance. Why do you think it will result in growth of GDP while the bill is known to increase the national debt on top of increases taxes on parts of the middle class? In short, how is this any better then fortune telling?

 

[william the wie]

The breakeven gdp growth rate is 2.4% which we are above. Have fun on my Iggy list.