Hoosier4Liberty
Libertarian Republican
- Oct 14, 2013
- 465
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OK, so as we get closer to election day, the key races are coming into focus.
The key theme in this thread is the GOP's path to reclaiming a majority in the US Senate.
They have 45 seats now and need 51. Here's how they do it:
1. First, they must pick up 3 open seats in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. The Republican candidates have comfortable leads in all these states. This should be no problem for the GOP.
2. Second, they must hold open seats in Georgia and Kentucky. Georgia is looking quite good for the GOP as Perdue is a very strong candidate. Plus, Nunn must get 50% on election day due to the runoff. Kentucky is close to a tossup but McConnell has a slight lead in polls. Kentucky is the Achilles heel of the GOP when it comes to gaining a majority.
3. Third, they need to win 3 more seats to get to the 6 they need.
The easiest 2 pickups are Arkansas and Louisiana. In Arkansas, Pryor is down in the polls and looks to be really struggling. In Louisiana, Landrieu appears unlikely to avoid a runoff(like in Georgia) and is trailing Cassidy in head-to-head polls.
If the GOP can pick up these 2, their final task is to win 1 more race on the map.
There are 2 open-seat races in Iowa and Michigan: in Iowa, this is a pure tossup. Ernst is doing well against Braley in all polls. In Michigan, Land is struggling against Gary Peters. That race will be tough to win.
The other races against incumbents which are competitive are in the following states: Alaska(against Begich), North Carolina(against Hagan), New Hampshire(against Shaheen), Minnesota(against Franken), Colorado(against Udall), and Oregon(against Merkley). The Republicans are anywhere from slightly behind(for Tillis in NC, Gardner in CO, Sullivan/Treadwell in AK) to significantly farther behind(Brown in NH, McFadden in MN, and Wehby in OR). However, if this turns into a GOP wave, these seats can come into play and serve as a firewall in case there is a screwup in Kentucky.
Things are looking good for the GOP, but not exceptional. Barring big problems, the party should pick up the Senate this cycle.
The key theme in this thread is the GOP's path to reclaiming a majority in the US Senate.
They have 45 seats now and need 51. Here's how they do it:
1. First, they must pick up 3 open seats in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. The Republican candidates have comfortable leads in all these states. This should be no problem for the GOP.
2. Second, they must hold open seats in Georgia and Kentucky. Georgia is looking quite good for the GOP as Perdue is a very strong candidate. Plus, Nunn must get 50% on election day due to the runoff. Kentucky is close to a tossup but McConnell has a slight lead in polls. Kentucky is the Achilles heel of the GOP when it comes to gaining a majority.
3. Third, they need to win 3 more seats to get to the 6 they need.
The easiest 2 pickups are Arkansas and Louisiana. In Arkansas, Pryor is down in the polls and looks to be really struggling. In Louisiana, Landrieu appears unlikely to avoid a runoff(like in Georgia) and is trailing Cassidy in head-to-head polls.
If the GOP can pick up these 2, their final task is to win 1 more race on the map.
There are 2 open-seat races in Iowa and Michigan: in Iowa, this is a pure tossup. Ernst is doing well against Braley in all polls. In Michigan, Land is struggling against Gary Peters. That race will be tough to win.
The other races against incumbents which are competitive are in the following states: Alaska(against Begich), North Carolina(against Hagan), New Hampshire(against Shaheen), Minnesota(against Franken), Colorado(against Udall), and Oregon(against Merkley). The Republicans are anywhere from slightly behind(for Tillis in NC, Gardner in CO, Sullivan/Treadwell in AK) to significantly farther behind(Brown in NH, McFadden in MN, and Wehby in OR). However, if this turns into a GOP wave, these seats can come into play and serve as a firewall in case there is a screwup in Kentucky.
Things are looking good for the GOP, but not exceptional. Barring big problems, the party should pick up the Senate this cycle.
