There seems to be a lot of confusion about delegate totals in Iowa

[Paulie]

This should help clear it up, because the media is all over the place from one outlet to the next about who won how many delegates.

Romney, Santorum, and Paul: How many delegates will each candidate get? - Slate Magazine

Mitt Romney won Tuesday’s Iowa Republican caucus, sort of. All news organizations report that the former Massachusetts governor defeated second-place Rick Santorum by eight votes, but they don’t seem to agree on the exact number of delegates that will be awarded to each candidate. According to CNN’s initial estimate, Romney, Santorum, and Paul would each receive seven of Iowa’s 25 delegates, with Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry netting two each. The Associated Press, on the other hand, predicted that Romney would get 13 delegates, and Santorum 12. Why is it so hard to calculate Iowa’s delegate totals?

Because the popular vote has nothing whatsoever to do with delegate selection. It’s best to think of Tuesday’s GOP caucuses as two different votes with two different purposes. In one, Republicans voted for their favorite candidate for president. That’s the vote Mitt Romney won by a razor-thin margin, and it’s the result that will have the most practical significance on the campaign going forward. The winners get a boost in fundraising and media attention, while candidates who do poorly, like Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann, can get knocked out of the race. (If they could only manage 5 or 10 percent in Iowa, what would their chances be in the rest of the country?) The vote, however, has no direct impact on how many Iowa delegates will vote for any given candidate at the party’s national convention in August.

Delegates are selected in a different vote, held at the same meeting after the presidential poll. At each precinct’s caucus last night, political enthusiasts volunteered to represent their peers at the county caucuses, which will be held in March. The volunteers don’t necessarily offer themselves as supporters of any given candidate, although some do. Others just express an interest in becoming a delegate, and their neighbors give them the go-ahead. They are free to vote however they like at the county caucuses, where the delegates from each precinct will select who among themselves will continue on to the district and state caucuses.

It’s not clear how or why media organizations estimate delegate totals after the vote. The practice may arise from confusion between the Republican and Democrat caucus processes. In the latter, Iowa Democrats apportion delegates to the county conventions based on each candidate’s share of the vote in the precinct caucuses. The delegates aren’t technically bound to stick with the candidate they’re supposed to represent, but there is a somewhat stronger link between the presidential preference poll and the delegate selection process.

The media has no way of knowing delegate totals at this point. What if Perry, Newt, and Santorum drop out? Any delegates that were going to commit to them would become unbound and up for grabs.

This is what is meant when people say this is a representative republic, and not a democracy. The candidates are protected from the tyranny of the majority and can still win delegates regardless of how they do in the voting.

This isn't the case in every state, as some are winner take all. But in a place like Iowa, it is.

 

[Katzndogz]

This is no doubt one of the changes that democrats intend to make.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

This is no doubt one of the changes that democrats intend to make.

How do you mean?

 

[Paulie]

This is no doubt one of the changes that democrats intend to make.

Paul actually had a pretty decent amount of delegates going into many of the state conventions in 2008. What happened was candidates who dropped out enticed their delegates to commit to McCain, and candidates who were still in joined forces and created slates to gather delegates that they then gave to McCain.

There ends up being a lot of back room wheeling and dealing in the delegate process. Paul supporters said in 2008 that there were party bosses literally begging them to give them delegates in exchange for Paul policies to become included at the conventions.

They fell for it then, but this time the campaign is professional and has probably one of the strongest organizations any non corporate funded candidate has ever had.

Romney will most likely win the nomination, but Paul will probably get the 2nd most delegates and have a big impact on the national convention.

 

[Mad Scientist]

Romney will most likely win the nomination, but Paul will probably get the 2nd most delegates and have a big impact on the national convention.

As well as the debates leading up to it.

Of all the GOP candidates when asked if they'd vote for Ron Paul if he got the nomination only one said yes; Mitt Romney.

If Mitt wins the nomination and chooses Paul as his veep, I just may hold my nose and vote for him. No, f*ck it, I will vote for him.

Mitt must know that Ron Paul holds about a third of the voters in his hands.

 

[Paulie]

Romney will most likely win the nomination, but Paul will probably get the 2nd most delegates and have a big impact on the national convention.

As well as the debates leading up to it.

Of all the GOP candidates when asked if they'd vote for Ron Paul if he got the nomination only one said yes; Mitt Romney.

If Mitt wins the nomination and chooses Paul as his veep, I just may hold my nose and vote for him. No, f*ck it, I will vote for him.

Mitt must know that Ron Paul holds about a third of the voters in his hands.

There would be no more sure fire way of guaranteeing a win than by choosing Paul as VP.

I just don't see it happening. It's not about winning it's about the status quo and Paul is the only one who threatens it.

 

[zzzz]

And Iowas delegates are an insignificant number in comparison to the over 1400 needed for the nomination and New Hampshire has even less (14) to effect the nomination.

Because of the money the race may be over before the primaries really start although Paul and Romney seem to have what it takes, the others will wither on the vine for lack of cash. Its not about policy or ideas its about money and giving the money men what they want. So no matter who wins they will be indebted to the money men not to the people of the US.

 

[waltky]

Granny say he so out onna fringe, his momma can make doilies of his speeches...

The Ron Paul effect: How he is altering Republican primary calculus
January 6, 2012 - Ron Paul can no longer be dismissed as 'fringe' by establishment Republicans. He has the staying power to bring his message to the masses – and transform the Republican conversation.

Ron Paul’s strong third-place finish in Iowa and second-place showing in New Hampshire polls have galvanized a movement that’s increasingly difficult for establishment Republicans to dismiss as “fringe.” The former Texas congressman is exciting young voters, attracting independents to the ballot box, and bringing in the money – $13 million in the past quarter. Whether or not he can ultimately win the nomination – which most political commentators and even some of his own supporters say is highly unlikely – Representative Paul clearly has the staying power to needle his opponents with attention-grabbing ads and bring his Constitution-centric message to the masses. So what, ultimately, might be The Ron Paul Effect?

For one, he’s already changed the conversation to a degree – in Republican debates and beyond. “The candidates talk more like [Paul] on taxes and government than they did in 2008,” says Rob Richie, executive director of FairVote, an advocacy group in Takoma Park, Md., focused on election participation and reform. “Ultimately the nominee is going to have figure out what part of [Paul’s] message can be more of his.” Paul has campaigned on cutting $1 trillion in federal spending – something that has perhaps upped the ante on how aggressively other candidates say they’ll cut.

Several polls have asked about whether likely GOP primary voters have a favorable view of returning the US monetary system to the gold standard – a reflection of how much Paul has championed this idea. He’s also brought to the fore more scrutiny of the Federal Reserve. Paul has also tapped into deep-seated dissatisfaction with the cost – in dollars and human life – of the past decade’s foreign wars. His perspective has “deep roots in this country.... His more isolationist view on foreign policy is one that a lot of Republicans have because it goes along with smaller government,” Mr. Richie says.

In the long run, the question is whether those Republican voters who support his views leave the party, or “does the party have a way to accommodate them?” Richie says. The Republican Party should be careful not to alienate Paul and his supporters, because “in a unique way he’s attracting new people to vote in Republican primaries or caucuses that otherwise wouldn’t ... or might go to a third party,” or not participate at all, says Wayne Lesperance Jr., a political science professor at New England College in Henniker, N.H.

For young potential voters – frustrated with student debt, unemployment, and gridlock in Washington – Paul is the buzz these days. A lot of students were upset when he canceled an appearance this week at College Convention 2012 – the young people's forum that Professor Lesperance organizes, and which made news Thursday when Rick Santorum was put on the spot for his arguments against gay marriage.

MORE

 

[The Rabbi]

Romney will most likely win the nomination, but Paul will probably get the 2nd most delegates and have a big impact on the national convention.

Proving your ignorance and stupidity with every post.
If Romney gets enough delegates for the nomination then it doesn't matter how many anyone else gets. Hillary had the second most last time and her contribution was nil.

The Paul-bots just can't let go, can they? Next thing will be them screaming they were betrayed by the country.

 

[uscitizen]

Iowa outsourced their voting system?