Temp has already risen 1.2C with a 40% CO2 increase, which is half a doubling.
That pegs the observed TCS (Transient Climate Sensitivity) at 2.4C.
ECS (Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity) has to be significantly bigger than that, because much of the warming from the current CO2 increase is still to come. It's likely in the range of 3.5C.
We can quibble about details there, but what's not debatable is that the lowball estimates of ECS, like calling it 1.0C, are flat out wrong, and the lukewarmer position is untenable.
That pegs the observed TCS (Transient Climate Sensitivity) at 2.4C.
ECS (Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity) has to be significantly bigger than that, because much of the warming from the current CO2 increase is still to come. It's likely in the range of 3.5C.
We can quibble about details there, but what's not debatable is that the lowball estimates of ECS, like calling it 1.0C, are flat out wrong, and the lukewarmer position is untenable.