/——-/ Where is the democRAT controlled congress’s balanced budget? Why did the democRATs squander all that money?Still a better economy than Obama ever had. It sounds like you hope the economy does badly so Trump does not get re-elected-is that true?Donald Trump has screwed up the nicely rising economy Obama left him.
Donald Trump is losing the trade war with manufacturing and agriculture down.
The ISM manufacturing index is falling sharply. Export orders are falling sharply as Trump tramples brand America.
"A measure of export orders, a proxy of overseas demand, sank to 43.3, the lowest reading since April 2009 during the depths of the last recession."
US exports also declined by 2+% year on year and are probably heading lower as Donald Trump has disrupted the whole international trade system with tariffs on friends and enemies alike.
U.S. Manufacturing Gauge Contracts for First Time in Three Years
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A key U.S. factory gauge unexpectedly contracted for the first time since 2016, sending stocks and bond yields lower and boosting expectations for interest-rate cuts as global manufacturing woes deepen.
The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers index fell to 49.1 in August, weaker than all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists, data released Tuesday showed. Figures below 50 indicate the manufacturing economy is generally shrinking. The group’s gauge of new orders dropped to a more than seven-year low, while the production index hit the lowest since late 2015.
The data add to concern a broader U.S. recession is coming and may complicate the re-election chances of President Donald Trump, whose pledges to revive manufacturing have been a signature issue. At the same time, Trump’s escalating tariffs on imports from China have been a major reason behind factory weakness that threatens to spread to consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the world’s largest economy.
In the U.S. stock market, the ISM numbers torpedoed a morning rebound and left the S&P 500 poised for its worst loss in seven sessions, down as much as 1.2% to erase almost half of last week’s rally. The 10-year Treasury yield and the dollar fell.
Traders of fed funds futures boosted the amount of easing they expect from the U.S. central bank this year, following a July 31 quarter-point cut that was the first since 2008. For the next Fed decision on Sept. 18, investors increased bets on a half-point reduction but continued to lean toward a quarter-point cut.
“This piece of data is part of the puzzle that helps to push us into recession,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial Inc. “The ramifications of the trade war show up in the euro zone, in Asia and now in the U.S. If the deterioration in the U.S. continues, it’s going to feed into the overall labor market.”
What Bloomberg’s Economists Say
“To be sure, economic anxiety related to tariffs and increasing trade tensions is extracting a significant toll on business confidence. However, there was limited direct evidence of tariffs creating upward price pressures or materials shortages in the details of the report. As such, the second-order impacts from the tariffs (i.e. confidence effects and currency appreciation) appear to be having the more substantial impact.”-- Carl Riccadonna, chief U.S. economist
Although manufacturing only makes up about 11% of the U.S. economy, there are concerns that entrenched weakness -- and any layoffs that may result -- could filter through to the rest of the economy and endanger the record-long expansion.
Transportation equipment was one of seven industries in the ISM report to report shrinking business activity last month. Automakers, which report their August sales on Wednesday, account for some of the slowdown. General Motors Co. has ceased production this year at a car plant in Ohio and transmission factory in Michigan, two of the four U.S. sites that it has said aren’t being allocated future product. Other automakers are reducing production shifts, including Nissan Motor Co., Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV and Honda Motor Co.
Weakness in the automotive and electronics markets is also impacting 3M Co.’s bottom line. Sales and profit at the diversified manufacturer fell in the second quarter even as earnings topped expectations. At Caterpillar Inc., a slowdown in crude extraction from the Permian Basin, the largest U.S. oil patch, is reducing demand for machinery. What’s more, the equipment maker’s worldwide machine sales in June and July were up 4%, the slowest in two years.
Manufacturing is technically already in a recession in the U.S. with a Fed measure of output declining in two consecutive quarters. The malaise is consistent with developments in the sector around the world. By one measure, global factory activity has contracted for four straight months.
The ISM’s measure of new orders, which are tracked by some as a leading indicator of a downturn, declined to 47.2. It was the first time since December 2015 that the gauge fell below 50. ISM’s production gauge also sank below that mark, to 49.5 in August from 50.8.
Nothing you posted suggests that "he screwed up the whole economy!".
That said, I agree. Trade war bad. Trump needs to Drop it.
U.S. adds just 130,000 jobs, a sign Trump’s trade war may have begun hiring slowdown
The job gain was boosted by the temporary hiring of 25,000 government workers for the 2020 Census. Excluding all government hiring, businesses added just 96,000 jobs, the fewest since May.
96,000 jobs? What did you guys say about Obama when he only added 200,000 jobs in a month? You said it wasn't good enough. Well, what do you say now hypocrites?
It's Obama's economy before Trump trashed trade and blew out the budget deficits and government debt.
The fate of the economy is in Trump's hands and I hope he gets run outta town beause my personal wealth is adversely affected by a bad US economy.
