Thank Tesla: The Biggest Obstacle to EV Ownership Will Soon Be History

Magnus

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Jun 22, 2020
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Ford, GM, Rivian, Volvo, Polestar and Mercedes-Benz have announced plans to adopt Tesla’s North American Charging Standard, making it possible for their products to access Tesla’s vast and growing network of Supercharger stations.

The generalization of NACS will be a huge win for consumers who have both wanted and feared buying their first electric car due to the inadequacy of existing CCS-based infrastructure. NACS will soon bring a generation of short-winded, slow-charging EVs within the radius of a Supercharger station somewhere, anywhere. Suddenly, buying an EV other than a Tesla doesn’t seem so crazy. If the price is right. And by right, I mean much, much cheaper.

The timing depends. Ford said its products would gain access to 12,000 Superchargers in North America by early 2024. For these non-NACS vehicles, Tesla has developed what it calls the Magic Dock adapter, allowing Superchargers to grok CCS-equipped vehicles. This plastic coupler is secured to the charger, ready when needed.


According to another report, there are about 150,000+ EV chargers in the US and by 2030, we may need at least a million. So, this is a good start since EV owners no longer will be dependent on their manufacturer's EV stations and can go anywhere.
 
Ford, GM, Rivian, Volvo, Polestar and Mercedes-Benz have announced plans to adopt Tesla’s North American Charging Standard, making it possible for their products to access Tesla’s vast and growing network of Supercharger stations.

The generalization of NACS will be a huge win for consumers who have both wanted and feared buying their first electric car due to the inadequacy of existing CCS-based infrastructure. NACS will soon bring a generation of short-winded, slow-charging EVs within the radius of a Supercharger station somewhere, anywhere. Suddenly, buying an EV other than a Tesla doesn’t seem so crazy. If the price is right. And by right, I mean much, much cheaper.

The timing depends. Ford said its products would gain access to 12,000 Superchargers in North America by early 2024. For these non-NACS vehicles, Tesla has developed what it calls the Magic Dock adapter, allowing Superchargers to grok CCS-equipped vehicles. This plastic coupler is secured to the charger, ready when needed.


According to another report, there are about 150,000+ EV chargers in the US and by 2030, we may need at least a million. So, this is a good start since EV owners no longer will be dependent on their manufacturer's EV stations and can go anywhere.
Its good to see standardization. It creates less mayhem and uncertainty so the right wing is sure to loathe this development.

That being said...
I dunno... I think the whole "charging station" model is a fantasy.

Picture this...you're driving along and need gas. You pull over and you get gas. Easy peasy.

Now you're driving your EV and need a charge. You pull over and get a charge. Easy peasy.

The problem becomes one of capacity and space. Whereas gas stations have 12-18 pumps and you're in and out in 5 minutes; so far, the full charge takes a lot longer than that. From the DOT:

1689955195810.png


20 minutes is the lowest number I see but that is likely the exception not the rule. I don't know. But it seems like when things get optimized and standardized and we're at the crest of the wave...the process will still take measurably longer than it takes for gasoline. So your car has to sit there for longer than it sat there if you had a gasoline engine. I'm planning a 600 mile trip as I write this...if I have to factor in 3-4 hours of charging...that is going to change the calculus.


I'm a huge fan of EV and it's going to change the way we drive. My next car will almost certainly be a hybrid if not a straight up EV. I'm not ragging on them but I think there is a better way forward.
---
The swap-station model is likely a better solution. You subscribe to a service that replaces your battery like when you swap out a propane cylinder at the hardware store for your grill.

From the source...


"Electric vehicle owners will pull in their vehicle, then it will be lifted up. Their battery will be unscrewed and replaced with a fully charged one, this is all done by a machine and only takes 5 minutes. There is one in China that currently takes 3 minutes to fully swap a battery. The battery that is being taken out of the vehicle will be put into the swap station and will automatically start charging, so it will be ready for the next battery swap. NIO currently has an app showing what stations are available and how busy the stations in the surrounding area are. These stations are predicted to make their way to the states in 2025. "

d2159d702a4d4280a8913f19c252ff41.jpeg

Picture Chevron or Exxon having one of these stations with 6 service bays that has 100-200 batteries that are charging below. You open the app on your phone, find a location and you go there after you reserve a battery. Once you get there... While you wait in your car, a battery is swapped out from the bottom of your vehicle. You get a fresh battery and continue on your way. The depleted battery that was removed is put at the "end of the line" and is re-charged while a fresh battery is cued up for the next driver.
 
Most people are still imagining EV's replacing gasoline cars one for one. That is never going to happen!

Start thinking in terms of mass transit and then it becomes a totally different discussion.

The relatively few car owners (probably 10%) will charge at home and then limit their range according to the amount of charge they can get overnight.

All of course dependent on humans surviving global climate change

Cuba is already there and so delegations can be sent to Cuba to look at and study how they make life without huge numbers of cars, work for them.
 
Lack of charging stations is just one obstacle to EV ownership.
There is also the high cost to purchase a new EV.
Limited driving range, especially in cold weather northern states.
Battery milage falls to around 50% when temp falls to the 30's and lower.
EV battery replacement when car gets older can be around $20,000+ which is probably more than the car is worth.
Repair and parts on an EV are very expensive because only dealerships with specially trained EV mechanics will work on them. Regular auto mechanic shops won't touch an EV
The depreciation on a used EV is in the toilet. People don't want to buy an older EV because the value of the car will be zero if the battery or some of the very expensive electrical/electronic parts fail.
 
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Its good to see standardization. It creates less mayhem and uncertainty so the right wing is sure to loathe this development.

That being said...
I dunno... I think the whole "charging station" model is a fantasy.

Picture this...you're driving along and need gas. You pull over and you get gas. Easy peasy.

Now you're driving your EV and need a charge. You pull over and get a charge. Easy peasy.

The problem becomes one of capacity and space. Whereas gas stations have 12-18 pumps and you're in and out in 5 minutes; so far, the full charge takes a lot longer than that. From the DOT:

View attachment 806609

20 minutes is the lowest number I see but that is likely the exception not the rule. I don't know. But it seems like when things get optimized and standardized and we're at the crest of the wave...the process will still take measurably longer than it takes for gasoline. So your car has to sit there for longer than it sat there if you had a gasoline engine. I'm planning a 600 mile trip as I write this...if I have to factor in 3-4 hours of charging...that is going to change the calculus.


I'm a huge fan of EV and it's going to change the way we drive. My next car will almost certainly be a hybrid if not a straight up EV. I'm not ragging on them but I think there is a better way forward.
---
The swap-station model is likely a better solution. You subscribe to a service that replaces your battery like when you swap out a propane cylinder at the hardware store for your grill.

From the source...


"Electric vehicle owners will pull in their vehicle, then it will be lifted up. Their battery will be unscrewed and replaced with a fully charged one, this is all done by a machine and only takes 5 minutes. There is one in China that currently takes 3 minutes to fully swap a battery. The battery that is being taken out of the vehicle will be put into the swap station and will automatically start charging, so it will be ready for the next battery swap. NIO currently has an app showing what stations are available and how busy the stations in the surrounding area are. These stations are predicted to make their way to the states in 2025. "

d2159d702a4d4280a8913f19c252ff41.jpeg

Picture Chevron or Exxon having one of these stations with 6 service bays that has 100-200 batteries that are charging below. You open the app on your phone, find a location and you go there after you reserve a battery. Once you get there... While you wait in your car, a battery is swapped out from the bottom of your vehicle. You get a fresh battery and continue on your way. The depleted battery that was removed is put at the "end of the line" and is re-charged while a fresh battery is cued up for the next driver.


While you wait in your car, a battery is swapped out from the bottom of your vehicle. You get a fresh battery and continue on your way.

Just what I want, my OEM battery swapped out for some old piece of shit on its last legs.
 
While you wait in your car, a battery is swapped out from the bottom of your vehicle. You get a fresh battery and continue on your way.

Just what I want, my OEM battery swapped out for some old piece of shit on its last legs.
You'll actually get a battery swapped out that is up to specifications.

The battery is as much a part of the car as gas is part of your current car.
 
The fantasy of a battery swap station is ludicrous. ... :cuckoo:

With all the different EV brands and their various models each using different size batteries. A very large service garage would be needed to quickly swap out the batteries on several cars at a time..
Plus, each swap station would require a giant warehouse for recharging and storing the massive number of batteries required to make the business viable.
 
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The fantasy of a battery swap station is ludicrous. ... :cuckoo:

With all the different EV brands and their various models each using different size batteries. A very large service garage would be needed to quickly swap out the batteries on several cars at a time..
Plus, each swap station would require a giant warehouse for recharging and storing the massive number of batteries required to make the business viable.

I'd be very happy to wait until my battery has reached the end of its useful life
to pay $30 (or whatever the swapping fee is) for a much newer battery.
 
While you wait in your car, a battery is swapped out from the bottom of your vehicle. You get a fresh battery and continue on your way.

Just what I want, my OEM battery swapped out for some old piece of shit on its last legs.
Yeah and hope there isn't a battery fire while you are being swapped out. Where is this "corner" station going to store 200-300 batteries or more
 
Its good to see standardization. It creates less mayhem and uncertainty so the right wing is sure to loathe this development.

That being said...
I dunno... I think the whole "charging station" model is a fantasy.

Picture this...you're driving along and need gas. You pull over and you get gas. Easy peasy.

Now you're driving your EV and need a charge. You pull over and get a charge. Easy peasy.

The problem becomes one of capacity and space. Whereas gas stations have 12-18 pumps and you're in and out in 5 minutes; so far, the full charge takes a lot longer than that. From the DOT:

View attachment 806609

20 minutes is the lowest number I see but that is likely the exception not the rule. I don't know. But it seems like when things get optimized and standardized and we're at the crest of the wave...the process will still take measurably longer than it takes for gasoline. So your car has to sit there for longer than it sat there if you had a gasoline engine. I'm planning a 600 mile trip as I write this...if I have to factor in 3-4 hours of charging...that is going to change the calculus.


I'm a huge fan of EV and it's going to change the way we drive. My next car will almost certainly be a hybrid if not a straight up EV. I'm not ragging on them but I think there is a better way forward.
---
The swap-station model is likely a better solution. You subscribe to a service that replaces your battery like when you swap out a propane cylinder at the hardware store for your grill.

From the source...


"Electric vehicle owners will pull in their vehicle, then it will be lifted up. Their battery will be unscrewed and replaced with a fully charged one, this is all done by a machine and only takes 5 minutes. There is one in China that currently takes 3 minutes to fully swap a battery. The battery that is being taken out of the vehicle will be put into the swap station and will automatically start charging, so it will be ready for the next battery swap. NIO currently has an app showing what stations are available and how busy the stations in the surrounding area are. These stations are predicted to make their way to the states in 2025. "

d2159d702a4d4280a8913f19c252ff41.jpeg

Picture Chevron or Exxon having one of these stations with 6 service bays that has 100-200 batteries that are charging below. You open the app on your phone, find a location and you go there after you reserve a battery. Once you get there... While you wait in your car, a battery is swapped out from the bottom of your vehicle. You get a fresh battery and continue on your way. The depleted battery that was removed is put at the "end of the line" and is re-charged while a fresh battery is cued up for the next driver.
Agreed. Years ago, an Israeli American, Shah Agasi created just such a company - a network of stations that swap batteries for EVs.

The brilliant concept that he and his engineers devised was to use the same technology used by planes that drop bombs. Think about it - bombs have to be held on the undercarriage of planes and the clips that hold them have to be so secure that the bombs would not be dislodged while the plane was taking off or in mid-flight.

And yet - the clips would have to release the bombs at a split-second over the target. Agasi co-opted this technology for his EV charging stations. Batteries would be installed on the underside of cars with clips so secure that they would not be dislodged during the normal course of the driving period. And yet, the batteries could be unclipped easily and quickly when needed.

As per Agasi's concept, cars would drive into his changing stations with external batteries on the undercarriage, a robotic arm would then unclip the old battery and clip on the new.

Millions were raised for this venture but unfortunately, the timing wasn't in Agasi's favor and the company went bust. I remember being fascinated with the technology and its potential. I still do.

Who knows, something along those lines might still be possible. In the history of technology for both cars and planes, many ideas fall by the wayside and then when the timings are correct, get resurrected.

We shall see if something similar happens to this idea of vehicle-battery-swap stations.
 
Agreed. Years ago, an Israeli American, Shah Agasi created just such a company - a network of stations that swap batteries for EVs.

The brilliant concept that he and his engineers devised was to use the same technology used by planes that drop bombs. Think about it - bombs have to be held on the undercarriage of planes and the clips that hold them have to be so secure that the bombs would not be dislodged while the plane was taking off or in mid-flight.

And yet - the clips would have to release the bombs at a split-second over the target. Agasi co-opted this technology for his EV charging stations. Batteries would be installed on the underside of cars with clips so secure that they would not be dislodged during the normal course of the driving period. And yet, the batteries could be unclipped easily and quickly when needed.

As per Agasi's concept, cars would drive into his changing stations with external batteries on the undercarriage, a robotic arm would then unclip the old battery and clip on the new.

Millions were raised for this venture but unfortunately, the timing wasn't in Agasi's favor and the company went bust. I remember being fascinated with the technology and its potential. I still do.

Who knows, something along those lines might still be possible. In the history of technology for both cars and planes, many ideas fall by the wayside and then when the timings are correct, get resurrected.

We shall see if something similar happens to this idea of vehicle-battery-swap stations.
There is no substitute for time...you can't get it back. So I don't care how attractive they make the wait to re-charge...I doubt they will ever make it attractive enough so to replace the time bonus through the swap-out method. So It seems to be the winning play. Its good to see the standardization taking place but It reminds me of the parable from the movie Other People's Money. Larry the Liquidator is this corporate raider who has bought controlling interest in a steel mill that is dying--it's worth more dead than alive--and he wants to sell it off but the board has to approve it. So the shareholders had to vote and they were listening to the incumbent owner who wanted to keep it going the way it was. Then Larry got to speak and he talked about the last company to make buggy whips..."I bet that was one hell of a buggy whip" they made.

 
Batteries in a car contain thousands of batteries.

Our battery system – or Energy Storage System, as we like to call it – is comprised of 6,831 individual Li-ion cells. It's roughly the size of a storage trunk and weighs about 900 pounds.
 
Lots of whining and lots of questions.

See my comment #4 for the answer to all the questions. That should put an end to the whining too.
 

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