Romney as Republican Nominee?

[BlackAsCoal]

1) I agree, the Republicans would rather nominate someone else

2) I think they may realize he's their only alternative

3) I think he'd have a reasonable chance of beating Obama, but the "he would crush Obama" line is silly. You don't know what would happen.

Romney has no chance ..

Evangelicals warn against Romney on ticket
Evangelicals warn against Romney on ticket - Washington Times

The Republican Party is beholden to their lunatics .. who make up most of the party.

 

[rightwinger]

Romney is the only credible candidate the Republicans have. Too bad he has less charisma than McCain

Another sacrificial lamb for the GOP

 

[LordBrownTrout]

I don't see much.

 

[jillian]

Romney will crush him if he gets the nod, and he is in a very strong position to do so.

Palin is not going to be nominated and she will not run.

no president has ever lost re-election with 46% approval rating or better in the polls.

you still having trouble with that fact-based reality thing?

oh.. and his RCP Avg today? 50.5% before the SOTU numbers.

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

As for palin, she has a very good shot at the first three primary states because THE EXTREMISTS VOTE MORE IN THE PRIMARIES... but she might cede her position to Bachmann the nutter rather than split the rightwingnut vote.

 

[ElephantMcDonk]

Romney will crush him if he gets the nod, and he is in a very strong position to do so.

Palin is not going to be nominated and she will not run.

no president has ever lost re-election with 46% approval rating or better in the polls.

you still having trouble with that fact-based reality thing?

oh.. and his RCP Avg today? 50.5% before the SOTU numbers.

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

As for palin, she has a very good shot at the first three primary states because THE EXTREMISTS VOTE MORE IN THE PRIMARIES... but she might cede her position to Bachmann the nutter rather than split the rightwingnut vote.

Thanks Jillian. I agree. I posted a thread earlier that stated InTrade has Obama's reelection chances at 60.5% and I think that's a little low. I'd put it at around 65%. Some of these GOP posters are either delusional or trying to convince themselves or trying to convince everyone else. The reality is, though Obama might lose, it's far from a slam dunk. In fact, the odds are in his favor to be reelected.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Romney will crush him if he gets the nod, and he is in a very strong position to do so.

Palin is not going to be nominated and she will not run.

I agree that Romney could beat him. But I also see it as unlikely he'll get the nod. I think that Palin will probably beat him to the punch.

I'd like to think she won't run, as it would mean she's using her brain. All running does is endanger her position as kingmaker in the party, a position that has been very lucrative for her. The problem is she's not thinking that way, and probably will run just to appease her ego.

 

[rightwinger]

Romney has one more run in him and will probably get the GOP nod.

Unfortunately, he has less to offer than McCain

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Romney as Republican Nominee?

InTrade has him at 23% to be the nominee. Don't we think that number is too low?

Today is January 26th, 2011.

 

[jillian]

Romney will crush him if he gets the nod, and he is in a very strong position to do so.

Palin is not going to be nominated and she will not run.

no president has ever lost re-election with 46% approval rating or better in the polls.

you still having trouble with that fact-based reality thing?

oh.. and his RCP Avg today? 50.5% before the SOTU numbers.

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

As for palin, she has a very good shot at the first three primary states because THE EXTREMISTS VOTE MORE IN THE PRIMARIES... but she might cede her position to Bachmann the nutter rather than split the rightwingnut vote.

Thanks Jillian. I agree. I posted a thread earlier that stated InTrade has Obama's reelection chances at 60.5% and I think that's a little low. I'd put it at around 65%. Some of these GOP posters are either delusional or trying to convince themselves or trying to convince everyone else. The reality is, though Obama might lose, it's far from a slam dunk. In fact, the odds are in his favor to be reelected.

anything can happen in the next year. as of right now, obama is likely to be re-elected. but two years ago, repubs were dead as a political party. three years ago, hillary was absolutely positively going to be the dem nominee and no one thought of obama. there may be someone who comes out of nowhere from the repub ranks. all kinds of circumstances could occur -- good or bad.

but when i read nuttiness like 'slam dunk', i have to laugh

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Romney has one more run in him and will probably get the GOP nod.

Unfortunately, he has less to offer than McCain

The problem is that Obama so far hasn't done a lot that would strengthen a re-election bid. Sometimes it isn't about the challenger, it's about the incumbent.

I think that if the GOP nominates Romney, then they'll be in a strong position for a shot at the White House regardless of the economy. I think if they nominate someone who is close to Palin politically, i.e. batshit crazy, then they'll lose the White House in a phenomenal manner and probably House control no matter what the economy looks like.

I'm certainly not willing to bet on Obama getting re-elected given his current track record. But I'm also not 100% he'll lose either.

 

[Yurt]

Romney as Republican Nominee?

InTrade has him at 23% to be the nominee. Don't we think that number is too low?

He is clearly the favorite at this point among the political insiders. He has the money and the organization to do it.

However, I doubt very seriously he will be the nominee. His faith was an issue last time around, and that won't change. In addition Romneycare in Massachusets is likely to haunt him when he runs.

If you're taking bets, I'd put money on Palin as the nominee. I could see her base helping her capture enough of the early states in the Primary process to allow her to take McCain's route all the way to the nomination.

The fact that Romney is a mormon is a problem when we last elected a man with the name "Hussein:, a mentor like "Wright", and friends like Ayers. Surely you jest.

no, the poster is accurate

it was not the LEFT who had a problem with his religion, it was the RIGHT

but for his faith, he would get the nod and maybe win, but the right by and large do not like mormons, add that to the left's dislike of mormons.....and well...

 

[rightwinger]

Romney has one more run in him and will probably get the GOP nod.

Unfortunately, he has less to offer than McCain

The problem is that Obama so far hasn't done a lot that would strengthen a re-election bid. Sometimes it isn't about the challenger, it's about the incumbent.

I think that if the GOP nominates Romney, then they'll be in a strong position for a shot at the White House regardless of the economy. I think if they nominate someone who is close to Palin politically, i.e. batshit crazy, then they'll lose the White House in a phenomenal manner and probably House control no matter what the economy looks like.

I'm certainly not willing to bet on Obama getting re-elected given his current track record. But I'm also not 100% he'll lose either.

Obama has accomplished more in his first two years than any President since FDR

It will all come down to the economy....doesn't it always?

 

[ElephantMcDonk]

no president has ever lost re-election with 46% approval rating or better in the polls.

you still having trouble with that fact-based reality thing?

oh.. and his RCP Avg today? 50.5% before the SOTU numbers.

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

As for palin, she has a very good shot at the first three primary states because THE EXTREMISTS VOTE MORE IN THE PRIMARIES... but she might cede her position to Bachmann the nutter rather than split the rightwingnut vote.

Thanks Jillian. I agree. I posted a thread earlier that stated InTrade has Obama's reelection chances at 60.5% and I think that's a little low. I'd put it at around 65%. Some of these GOP posters are either delusional or trying to convince themselves or trying to convince everyone else. The reality is, though Obama might lose, it's far from a slam dunk. In fact, the odds are in his favor to be reelected.

anything can happen in the next year. as of right now, obama is likely to be re-elected. but two years ago, repubs were dead as a political party. three years ago, hillary was absolutely positively going to be the dem nominee and no one thought of obama. there may be someone who comes out of nowhere from the repub ranks. all kinds of circumstances could occur -- good or bad.

but when i read nuttiness like 'slam dunk', i have to laugh

I was very, very much expecting Obama to beat Clinton if he decided to run way more than 3 years ago. I'm no soothsayer, I get things wrong, but I'll also say that I expected George W. Bush to win the Presidency if he decided to run as of 1998. I think ROmney is the biggest threat to Obama in a heads up match from anyone the GOP could pick. That said, here' my math. I think Romney has about a 60% chance of getting the nomination. If he does, I put his odds of beating Obama at about 45%. The rest of the field has the remaining 40% chance of getting the nomination and about a 30% of beating him heads up.

0.60 X 0.45 = 27% chance Romney is elected President
0.40 X 0.30 = 12% chance another Republican is elected President

...the remaining 61% is the chance Obama is elected.

And yes, I think Romney has that much of a chance of getting the nomination. The Republican Party has no other reasonable option. They will realize this almost immediately. If Romney wins Iowa, it's probably over from jumpstreet, because he'll definitely win New Hampshire. People like Huckabee and Palin are silly alternatives. Jindal, Pawlenty, Thune, Barbour, Trump, come on, really, let's be serious. Chrsitie, Rubio, not running. Romney is the only choice they have. Of course, I probably shouldn't articulate this narrative to clearly. I don't really want this idea to catch on. I want a crappy GOP nominee to basically hand over a 2nd term to Obama without him having to fight too hard. I didn't mention Daniels. I suppose he's a potential darkhorse, but I'd still say his chances are minimal.

 

[elvis]

Romney as Republican Nominee?

InTrade has him at 23% to be the nominee. Don't we think that number is too low?

No. He won't win Iowa or South Carolina. Huckabee will win both of them, I thnink. Makes it pretty tough to win without one of those states.

 

[JWBooth]

Romney as Republican Nominee?

InTrade has him at 23% to be the nominee. Don't we think that number is too low?

Romney
Another government has the answers corporate Republicrat.
I wouldn't cross the road to piss in his ear if his brain was on fire, much less vote for him.

 

[elvis]

Romney as Republican Nominee?

InTrade has him at 23% to be the nominee. Don't we think that number is too low?

Romney
Another government has the answers corporate Republicrat.
I wouldn't cross the road to piss in his ear if his brain was on fire, much less vote for him.

what if he's the only chance to beat obama?

 

[Political Junky]

You'd think the GOP learned a lesson from McCain, who changed his tune so often that he stood for nothing in the end. I see Romney as having done the same thing.

 

[JWBooth]

Romney as Republican Nominee?

InTrade has him at 23% to be the nominee. Don't we think that number is too low?

Romney
Another government has the answers corporate Republicrat.
I wouldn't cross the road to piss in his ear if his brain was on fire, much less vote for him.

what if he's the only chance to beat obama?

Then this political system is too bereft of value for it to matter one way or the other.

 

[rightwinger]

Romney as Republican Nominee?

InTrade has him at 23% to be the nominee. Don't we think that number is too low?

No. He won't win Iowa or South Carolina. Huckabee will win both of them, I thnink. Makes it pretty tough to win without one of those states.

It all comes down to Super Tuesday

That is where McCain took out Romney last time

 

[elvis]

Romney as Republican Nominee?

InTrade has him at 23% to be the nominee. Don't we think that number is too low?

No. He won't win Iowa or South Carolina. Huckabee will win both of them, I thnink. Makes it pretty tough to win without one of those states.

It all comes down to Super Tuesday

That is where McCain took out Romney last time

If you lose two of the first three states, you're finished. The momentum after SC is too great. Bush lost NH by 17 points in 2000, almost dropped out. but he had won Iowa and won SC after Rove sent those disgusting flyers. McCain was done.