RNC complete guide to the Republican nomination process

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The Official Guide to the 2016 Republican Nominating Process | GOP

The Republican national committee has released (as .pdf for download) the complete guide to all of the details about their nomination process, down to the fine details.

Here some surface details from the website itself:

2015-10-002 GOP nomination process details from RNC website.png


For 2016, almost 55% of all delegates will be awarded proportionally, whereas only 16% of delegates will come from WTA states. This represents a pretty big shift in the Republican Party, where the GOP primaries were once almost all WTA. We also see that by the end of March, primaries/caucuses in states that represent 70% of all delegates to the RNC will have been completed. This does NOT mean that all of those delegates will have been divvied up quite yet, for many states then hold state conventions in the month following the primaries. They, however, usually divvy them up exactly according to the results of the primaries/caucuses and their respective state rules. Many states have a certain number of delegates that are unbounded - which is the wild-card element in all of this and only becomes important in a real-dogfight.

Mathematically, it would be possible for a candidate to sew-up the GOP nomination by the end of March, because by then, primaries/caucuses in states worth 1,568 delegates will have been completed and the magic number to win the GOP nomination in 2016 is: 1,236. So, were a candidate to sweep about 79% of the delegates, he would already have the thing locked up. This is unlikely to happen, when you consider that all of the races BEFORE March 15th are proportional (or hybrid) races and then, the WTA races get to start as of 03/15, with Ohio, Florida and Missouri.

The GOP has it listed so in the .pdf:

2015-10-002 GOP nomination process details - cumulative calendar.png


Sorry about the print quality. That's not the screenshot program's fault. This is how the print looks at the .pdf.
This chart, however, is absolutely excellent, because it shows running totals to date. The date where the most delegates will be up for grabs at once is March 1st (probably the closest to "Super Tuesday" that we will get in 2016).

At a later date, I will be putting out a more extensive chart - with the R and D contests next to each other (they are not always concurrent), but this should give you a good overview to begin with, courtest of the Republican National Committee.

There are also detailed summaries for each state at the report, because the threshhold requirements for proportional contests vary from state to state and some are quite complex, for instance:

2015-10-002 GOP nomination process details - cumulative calendar - Tennessee overview.png


-or-

2015-10-002 GOP nomination process details - cumulative calendar - Washington overview.png



I bet no one here thought it could get that complicated.


Anyhow, that is the overview of the 2016 GOP primaries, direct from the Elephant's mouth. Hope that helps.

:D
 
Stats help me out here. You absolutely brilliant on the data. But really help me out here.

Why are people and this is the one thing I can never wrap my brain around. Why are people from a different party allowed to vote in the primaries?

I'm in a fever and going back to bed now. But I really would like an answer to that question.
 
Stats help me out here. You absolutely brilliant on the data. But really help me out here.

Why are people and this is the one thing I can never wrap my brain around. Why are people from a different party allowed to vote in the primaries?

I'm in a fever and going back to bed now. But I really would like an answer to that question.

Each party, in each state, can make the decision to either have closed or open primaries. Just like they decide to be WTA or proportional or hybrid.

I happen to live in a state with closed primaries and I am an Independent so I don't get to vote at all unless there is a primary for who is going to represent an independent party.

Yes, it is confusing when states allow open primaries because then you don't know exactly who in your own party likes the candidate but on the other hand it provides a better idea of who has the most support in that state.

However it also opens the primary up to mischief such as we saw in 2008 when Limbaugh was openly advocating for registered republicans to vote in Dem primaries in order to skew the results to help the GOP in the GE. Needless to say it backfired but that is besides the point.

Hope you feel better soon.
 
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Stats help me out here. You absolutely brilliant on the data. But really help me out here.

Why are people and this is the one thing I can never wrap my brain around. Why are people from a different party allowed to vote in the primaries?

I'm in a fever and going back to bed now. But I really would like an answer to that question.


One word: Federalism.

That's why.

Hope you get to feeling better.
 

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