SwingVoter
VIP Member
For all the media hype about swing states, OH, PA, and MI are lining up the way did in 04, with PA and MI going Dem, OH going GOP. Other swing states like NH and VA are starting to line up under their '04 preferences as well. The current no toss up map has O beating Mac 273-265, a margin so thin it would be a Mac victory if electoral votes were doled out based on likely 2010 census EV reapportionment.
Colorado is likely to flip GOP to Dem, with Latinos now breaking 20% of the population, and little movement in polls there post-GOP convention.
The one wild card though is New Mexico. It's close because it's 40 percent Latino, and polls there should no clear break to either side. Moreover, Bush won it with just 6,000 votes, and much of his strength was in the SE part of the state along the TX border in counties that were 30-40% Hispanic. And even with just 5 EVs, it would be enough to put Mac over the top 270-268 if the current no toss up map held.
Colorado is likely to flip GOP to Dem, with Latinos now breaking 20% of the population, and little movement in polls there post-GOP convention.
The one wild card though is New Mexico. It's close because it's 40 percent Latino, and polls there should no clear break to either side. Moreover, Bush won it with just 6,000 votes, and much of his strength was in the SE part of the state along the TX border in counties that were 30-40% Hispanic. And even with just 5 EVs, it would be enough to put Mac over the top 270-268 if the current no toss up map held.
