The Unfairness of Fair Trade
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Imports always grow most rapidly when U.S. manufacturing is expanding, and shrink only when U.S. industrial production declines. One reason is that U.S. industries are this nation's biggest importers. Industrial supplies accounted for 24½ percent of all imported goods in the year 2000, and capital goods for another 28½ percent. From January to December 2001, imports of industrial supplies fell from $27.1 billion to $18.3 billion, or 33 percent. Imports of capital goods fell from $28.8 billion to $22.5 billion, or 22 percent. Far from reduced imports being a boon to U.S. manufacturers, falling imports mirrored falling world demand for manufactured goods.
The only proven way to reduce U.S. imports is to push the economy back into recession. A few folks in the government seem eager to do just that, always in the name of keeping trade "balanced" or "fair." U.S. manufacturers need imported supplies and equipment to produce much more valuable products. Manufacturing suffers whenever politicians attempt to raise the cost of imports with tariffs, though industries with the most lobbying clout may gain. Tariffs on sugar, nuts and dairy products raise the cost of production for U.S. manufacturers of breakfast foods and candy; tariffs on steel raise costs for U.S. manufacturers of autos and appliances; tariffs on leather raise costs for U.S. manufacturers of shoes; tariffs on fabrics raise costs for U.S. manufacturers of clothing; and so on. And tariffs raise the cost of living for consumers, reducing their ability to buy other goods and services (most of which are unprotected and unsubsidized).
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What accounts for all this trade hysteria? China accounted for only 103/4 percent of U.S. imported goods last year, according to the St. Louis Fed. And that was largely at the expense of imports that used to come from other countries. A decade ago, Japan accounted for more than 20 percent of U.S. imported goods, but Japan's share is down to 10.4 percent. Trying to reduce U.S. imports from China would just shift the source of imports to other countries, like Japan or South Korea. This is also why it makes no sense to talk about exchange rates between just two currencies as having anything to do with the overall U.S. trade deficit.
Mr. Snow explained to the Senate Banking Committee that the United States has a current account deficit because investment is rising faster than savings. A falling dollar could only "help" the trade deficit by inflating the dollar costs of commodities and credit, and thus shrinking business and residential investment. That's called a recession.
That brings us back to the point we started with: Imports always rise when manufacturing output speeds up, and fall only when U.S. industry declines. If some senators and Cabinet officials are as upset about imports as they sound, they had better devise a plan to toss the economy back into recession.
That may not be the intent of all the protectionist rhetoric and legislation floating about, but if that talk ever degenerates into actual trade warfare, the results would soon turn ugly.
The Unfairness of Fair Trade