Let's be Real: The Right will nominate Romney

Discussion in 'Politics' started by ClosedCaption, Oct 19, 2011.

  1. ClosedCaption
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    ClosedCaption Diamond Member

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    And they will support him. That has been the plan from the beginning, the debates are just GOP theater.
     
  2. Avatar4321
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    Avatar4321 Diamond Member Gold Supporting Member

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    I think it's foolish to presume anything before a single vote is cast. But that's just what I've learned from experience.
     
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  3. Grampa Murked U
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    Grampa Murked U Diamond Member

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    I hope not but I suspect you are right. He still won't get my vote in the primaries though.
     
  4. Dr.Traveler
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    Dr.Traveler Mathematician

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    The danger of being the front runner at this point is that if you perform poorly or get a surprise in an early state, you're toast. Ask Hillary or Giuliani how being the early front runners worked out for them.

    I suspect that Romney will be the nominee, but I think there's a lot of potential for surprise in Iowa or New Hampshire. You could see Romney and Perry "annihilate" each other in Iowa and set up a real surprise result. If Romney wins there he'll probably steam roll down the line. Nevada is typically his playground, Florida looks favorable to him, etc. But if he loses there the field will change dramatically.

    If the nominee isn't Romney, I'd bet good money that Newt ends up the nominee. At this point Perry isn't going to win, at best he's the spoiler for Romney. Cain is starting to lose momentum....which isn't good when you were just the flavor of the month. Bachmann is flat out insane, and Santorum is...well... Santorum. And Huntsman is completely unknown.

    A lot will depend on Iowa.
     
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  5. Lakhota
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    Lakhota Diamond Member

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    Romney isn't crazy enought for the right. Plus he's a Mormon devil.
     
  6. ladyliberal
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    ladyliberal Progressive Princess

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    Romney's nomination is only the most likely outcome, nothing like a certainty. Intrade gives him about 67% odds now, and that seems about right to me. Perry, Cain, or someone else could plausibly win the nomination.

    So the odds of a non-Romney winning are about 33%. In comparison, the odds of Obama capturing the nomination at this point in the 2008 cycle were about 10% and McCain's were even worse (The Big Picture), so stranger things happen all the time.

    If Romney does capture the nomination, I think the right will largely line up behind him. I'm sure that the enthusiasm level will be lower among Evangelicals and similar voters than if Perry had the nomination, but not enough to dramatically affect turnout. The only thing that could really shake this up would be a third-party candidate, which I rate unlikely.
     
  7. Avatar4321
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    Avatar4321 Diamond Member Gold Supporting Member

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    The right isn't looking for crazy people. We are looking for intelligent and competent leaders.
     
  8. Lakhota
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    Lakhota Diamond Member

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    When was the last one you had?
     
  9. Dr.Traveler
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    The fringe isn't in control of the GOP any more than the fringe left was control of the DNC in 2004. When there's an incumbent in office the early states tend to pick the candidate that has the best chance in the General. There's a lot of reasons that happens, cross over votes, depressed primary turnouts, etc.

    If Romney ends up looking like the best candidate to take on Obama he'll likely win. If you're a GOP candidate now the name of the game is to pull Romney down to your level. Romney's done a good job of keeping above the fight for the most part, so he could easily end up the nominee.
     
  10. Avatar4321
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    Avatar4321 Diamond Member Gold Supporting Member

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    2008.

    Alittle misguided but still intelligent and competent.
     

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