william the wie
Gold Member
- Nov 18, 2009
- 16,667
- 2,402
- 280
In simple terms the following states have a 5-10% chance of being the first to default as a state prior to the 2020 election.
CA
IL, KY&WV
VT, MA, CT, RI, NY, NJ (MD,PA & ME)
That looks like a 25-51% probability of mostly D states going into default but it really isn't. If CA goes into default it might not have any effect on 2020 or any other states. It is that much of an outlier even though it is the biggest state in population.
IL, KY&WV are also an outlier cluster that might have limited effect on the rest of the country and election.
The Washington-Boston corridor on the other hand could easily take out MD,PA & ME just by proximity even though they are in bad but not awful shape. Even a few big taxpayers leaving NJ or IL could cause a major crisis. I thought I should check to see if I'm being over-optimistic.
CA
IL, KY&WV
VT, MA, CT, RI, NY, NJ (MD,PA & ME)
That looks like a 25-51% probability of mostly D states going into default but it really isn't. If CA goes into default it might not have any effect on 2020 or any other states. It is that much of an outlier even though it is the biggest state in population.
IL, KY&WV are also an outlier cluster that might have limited effect on the rest of the country and election.
The Washington-Boston corridor on the other hand could easily take out MD,PA & ME just by proximity even though they are in bad but not awful shape. Even a few big taxpayers leaving NJ or IL could cause a major crisis. I thought I should check to see if I'm being over-optimistic.