How soon Will China Collapse?

[william the wie]

I was checking the current odds of Trump winning in 2020 and I ran into debates about the odds of China collapsing this year.

There are several problems that are converging
The loss of Japanese and Korean direct investment in China is a huge hit.
The trade war with the US is another biggie
But the biggest problems are gaming the economic numbers.
LFF in China and Japan include a large number of mandatory retirees but Japan permits some 60 year old retirees to work until age 65 China generally does not.
Capital flight is common but hard numbers are hard to come by. Advisors are available to get money out of China and later the owners of the money.
Unemployment is increasing but numbers are not released.
Because normal accounting data is not available investment in China is declining.

The postponement of new tariffs gives more time to get out of China so, disinvesting in China is likely to get much worse as December 15th gets closer. That sounds like China will be collapsing late this year/early next year.

 

[lennypartiv]

China will collapse, but not this year. It's previous "one child" policy will cause it's demise.

 

[Dick Foster]

I was checking the current odds of Trump winning in 2020 and I ran into debates about the odds of China collapsing this year.

There are several problems that are converging
The loss of Japanese and Korean direct investment in China is a huge hit.
The trade war with the US is another biggie
But the biggest problems are gaming the economic numbers.
LFF in China and Japan include a large number of mandatory retirees but Japan permits some 60 year old retirees to work until age 65 China generally does not.
Capital flight is common but hard numbers are hard to come by. Advisors are available to get money out of China and later the owners of the money.
Unemployment is increasing but numbers are not released.
Because normal accounting data is not available investment in China is declining.

The postponement of new tariffs gives more time to get out of China so, disinvesting in China is likely to get much worse as December 15th gets closer. That sounds like China will be collapsing late this year/early next year.

I doubt it happens anytime soon but it will happen at least the communist regime will collapse if they don't get back on the track to democracy soon. It's already too late for the days of Mao Zedongs communit regime or anything like it to return. They've had a taste of economic freedom and capatilism so now there's no going back.
If I were Trump I'd start talking total embargo. I remember when China was a non factor in the global economy and we got along just fine in their total absence. They need us but we sure as hell don't need them. Without us to peddle their shit too they'd fold overnight.

Those clowns are hurtin for certain so stay the course till they come to their knees.

 

[Picaro]

Crackdowns on civilians are the first sign; we've already seen that, and now it's expanded into Hong Kong. In all of these countries it's the Xians they always go after first, and they started after them last year, along with Muslims, and are still rounding them up. It's why Wall Street loves them, after all.

 

[william the wie]

I think China's history of covering up errors makes gradual change more or less impossible, which is the only reason I disagree solely on that point. China is similar to France in that respect. France has long periods of stability and then it goes nuts. The great wall has four layers in some places and France too is noted for its fortifications being bypassed and having to be redone before the next war comes along. This time around China will go nuts like flipping a switch.

 

[Picaro]

I think China's history of covering up errors makes gradual change more or less impossible, which is the only reason I disagree solely on that point. China is similar to France in that respect. France has long periods of stability and then it goes nuts. The great wall has four layers in some places and France too is noted for its fortifications being bypassed and having to be redone before the next war comes along. This time around China will go nuts like flipping a switch.

They've always been nuts; it's just that our press doesn't constantly point that out, it just runs puff pieces on how great they are and how wonderful our trade with them is n stuff, never mind what they do as a matter of daily routine, which is enforce draconian labor 'contracts' ans steal technology, and force outside businesses to build anything sold on China in China itself. Wall Street loves them for this, all the while babbling about 'free trade' and how wonderful concentration camp style labor practices are for profits.

 

[Bruce_T_Laney]

If we stay the course I give them two years max.

 

[Augustine_]

China will collapse, but not this year. It's previous "one child" policy will cause it's demise.

 

[william the wie]

China will collapse, but not this year. It's previous "one child" policy will cause it's demise.

we are in 2019 so I would expect China to become the second largest nation before the expected 2024 date for that to happen because they are on the edge of a financial cliff.

 

[lennypartiv]

<< Can China recover from its disastrous one-child policy? >>

Can China recover from its disastrous one-child policy?

 

[lennypartiv]

<< The latest drop in the birth rate, according to demographer Chen Youhua from Nanjing University quoted in The South China Morning Post, is due to a fall in the number of women of childbearing age. There are fewer childbearing women because of the lower birth rates in the 1990s, when the one-child policy was in full swing. >>

Despite The End Of China's One-Child Policy, Births Are Still Lagging

 

[Unkotare]

China will collapse, but not this year. It's previous "one child" policy will cause it's demise.

That law ended years ago

 

[william the wie]

<< Can China recover from its disastrous one-child policy? >>

Can China recover from its disastrous one-child policy?

The short answer is no based on Europe and Japan.