Living in an alternative reality can be very costly, as it was for Trump's supporters.
If you were cursed enough to be following betting markets on election night, those numbers might have hit you like the New York Timesâ 2016 needle on megasteroids. Political analysts had warned that delays in counting mail-in ballots could create a âred mirage,â where Republicans would look good based on the Election Day vote before Democrats made up ground. But the betting odds were not buying that theory of the race. They moved hard toward Trump when it became clear he would win Florida and looked good in North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.
The betting markets were not good predictors, but they werenât trying to be. The online bookmakers that fielded bets on the election saw their largest single-event windfall ever. To understand why, you need to understand election betting and Donald Trump supporters. ...
Bovadaâs head oddsmaker, Pat Morrow, said that his site handled âeight figuresâ in election bets, 95 percent of them coming from Americans, and that 30 percent more cash had been wagered on the race than the siteâs previous biggest event, the Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl in February. At Panama-based BetOnline, the election also brought the largest sum of total wagers in history: âmidâeight figures,â according to sportsbook brand manager Dave Mason. ...
âEverybody knows that the Super Bowl is the biggest bet event of the year by far, and this doubled the last two combined,â Mason says. âIt was absolutely insane. Not only the amount of people betting it, but the big bets that were coming in. Five figures and even six-figure bets coming in on both sides. Weâd never seen anything like it.â ...
The odds-shifting bonanza on election night, with all that money on the line, was not a sign that the oddsmakers knew something the mainstream media did not. Instead, the Trump spike was the peak of a phenomenon that had been unfolding all year. Many Trump supporters were certain he could not lose, and they plowed so much money into betting on him that they distorted markets in his (and ultimately, the sportsbooksâ) favor.
âItâs the most irrational market I ever saw,â says Collin Sherwin, a Tampa, Floridaâbased gambling writer who covers the industry for Vox Mediaâs DraftKings Nation. ...
For most of the year, Trumpâs short odds to win (requiring bettors to risk more money for smaller winnings) were not a reflection of inside political knowledge, or of the oddsmakers being MAGA guys. Bookmakers were taking on so many Trump bets that they consistently tried to discourage people from betting on him. ...
âTrump supporters are loud,â Morrow says. âThey love Trump in a way that most candidates are not beloved, but they also represent the demographic of a lot of sports bettors. These are people that are 18 to 45, generally white male.â ...
Hereâs another clue that Trumpâs cult of personality inspired abundant irrational betting. For the first few months of the general election, Bovada bettors could toss their money into two different general election markets. One was âBiden against Trump,â the other âthe Democratic Party against the Republican Party.â
While Trump got the overwhelming share of the money against Biden, those who bet on a party put more money on the Democrats.
âPeople wanted to have a Trump [betting] ticket,â Morrow says. âThey didnât wanna have a âRepublican Party to win the presidential electionâ ticket.â ...
Only after the election did bookmakers reach the âtaking candy from a babyâ portion of the proceedings. Mason tweeted the day after the election, when Trumpâs odds at BetOnline were +525 and 80 percent of the bets were still coming in on Trump, ...
The sportsbooks won untold millions off a political movementâs refusal to accept reality. It wasnât the oddsmakersâ plan to win by such large margins, and doing so despite making Trump a relative favorite was largely good fortune.
How Offshore Oddsmakers Made a Killing off Gullible Trump Supporters
The emotions and strategies behind record-setting bets on a MAGA victory that never came.
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