Hillary Clinton's July 2016 average poll lead VS. Joe Biden's July 2020 average poll lead

[Camp]

Polls are BS. What part about they're never right have people missed?

Next.

The part that they are usually right and correctly predicted who would win the popular vote in 2016. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.09% points

There is no such thing as the "popular vote." It doesn't exist other than as an informal number that some people calculated and put out there. In this country we use the electoral college:

Constitution of the United States

View the full United States Constitution, Bill of Rights, and all Amendments online. Additional summaries and explanations.

constitutionus.com

You can't take data for an election based on a set of criteria that voters knew the election was based on (EV) and conclude that if you changed the rules and use the same data it would turn out the same way.

1) The campaigns campaigned for the EV not the PV. For example, where they ran ads and where they went to influence voters

2) There are actually tens of millions of Republicans in places like California who knew their vote was worthless in the EV. That wouldn't have been true if we used the PV

I can't believe you don't know this BASIC information. Didn't exactly go to college, did you?

How do EC electors get selected? Does it have anything to do with the popular vote?

No. The national Popular vote, what he referred to, has nothing to do with ECs being elected.

What you are doing is changing what he said, which is a national popular vote, and changing it to sound like he meant it at the State level.

Just FYI the logical fallacy you just committed is called equivocation

I was responding only to your vain boastful no everything comment which you continued while never answering my question

 

[U2Edge]

Polls are BS. What part about they're never right have people missed?

Next.

The part that they are usually right and correctly predicted who would win the popular vote in 2016. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.09% points

There is no such thing as the "popular vote." It doesn't exist other than as an informal number that some people calculated and put out there. In this country we use the electoral college:

Constitution of the United States

View the full United States Constitution, Bill of Rights, and all Amendments online. Additional summaries and explanations.

constitutionus.com

You can't take data for an election based on a set of criteria that voters knew the election was based on (EV) and conclude that if you changed the rules and use the same data it would turn out the same way.

1) The campaigns campaigned for the EV not the PV. For example, where they ran ads and where they went to influence voters

2) There are actually tens of millions of Republicans in places like California who knew their vote was worthless in the EV. That wouldn't have been true if we used the PV

I can't believe you don't know this BASIC information. Didn't exactly go to college, did you?

How know how the United States elects Presidents, but what you don't understand is the impact popularity in the national popular vote has on the outcome of the Electoral College Vote. Over the past 200 years, over 90% of the time, the winner of the popular vote is the winner of the electoral college. There have only been 4 elections when the popular vote winner, did not get the most electoral college votes, 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016.

When the popular vote winner has won the popular vote by a margin of 3.01% points or greater, the popular vote winner has received the most votes in the electoral college 100% of the time. Joe Biden is going to win the popular vote by at least 3 to 4 percentage points.


Again, the only thing that could change all this is lower voter turnout due to coronavirus and mess up with mail in voting to pick up the slack with in person poll voting on election day.

 

[kaz]

No. The national Popular vote, what he referred to, has nothing to do with ECs being elected.

What you are doing is changing what he said, which is a national popular vote, and changing it to sound like he meant it at the State level.

Just FYI the logical fallacy you just committed is called equivocation

I was responding only to your vain boastful no everything comment which you continued while never answering my question

I directly answered your question. You asked about the popular vote and obviously changed from the national popular vote to State popular votes, which wasn't what he said.

The rest of your post made no sense and wasn't related to anything I said

 

[kaz]

Polls are BS. What part about they're never right have people missed?

Next.

The part that they are usually right and correctly predicted who would win the popular vote in 2016. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.09% points

There is no such thing as the "popular vote." It doesn't exist other than as an informal number that some people calculated and put out there. In this country we use the electoral college:

Constitution of the United States

View the full United States Constitution, Bill of Rights, and all Amendments online. Additional summaries and explanations.

constitutionus.com

You can't take data for an election based on a set of criteria that voters knew the election was based on (EV) and conclude that if you changed the rules and use the same data it would turn out the same way.

1) The campaigns campaigned for the EV not the PV. For example, where they ran ads and where they went to influence voters

2) There are actually tens of millions of Republicans in places like California who knew their vote was worthless in the EV. That wouldn't have been true if we used the PV

I can't believe you don't know this BASIC information. Didn't exactly go to college, did you?

How know how the United States elects Presidents, but what you don't understand is the impact popularity in the national popular vote has on the outcome of the Electoral College Vote. Over the past 200 years, over 90% of the time, the winner of the popular vote is the winner of the electoral college. There have only been 4 elections when the popular vote winner, did not get the most electoral college votes, 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016.

When the popular vote winner has won the popular vote by a margin of 3.01% points or greater, the popular vote winner has received the most votes in the electoral college 100% of the time. Joe Biden is going to win the popular vote by at least 3 to 4 percentage points.


Again, the only thing that could change all this is lower voter turnout due to coronavirus and mess up with mail in voting to pick up the slack with in person poll voting on election day.

What you just accurately pointed out is that the popular vote and electoral college vote are correlated. It's completely obvious, but true.

That doesn't change the point that Biden isn't campaigning for the PV and neither is Trump. They are both campaigning for the EV and that dramatically impacts their appearances and advertising by State. And people voting know that and it affects who shows up.

You didn't add anything to the discussion. The PV isn't a thing. It's just an informal number that was tallied up that has no actual meaning or causation

 

[Claudette]

Hillary Clinton's July 2016 average poll lead VS. Joe Biden's July 2020 average poll lead from REAL CLEAR POLITICS which takes an average of the latest polls:

Hillary Clinton for the month of July 2016 led Donald Trump by an average of 2.4% points in the average of the polls that month.

Joe Biden for the month of July 2020 has led Donald Trump by an average of 8.8% points in the average of the polls this month.



Hillary Clinton's average poll leads over Trump for August, September, October, and early November 2016:

August 2016 - 6.0% points
September 2016 - 2.6% points
October 2016 - 5.6% points
Early November 2016 - 3.5% points

Election day November 8, 2016 - 3.0% points
Election day actual results November 8, 2016 - 2.09% points

Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 - Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In aggregate, Joe Biden’s national lead over Donald Trump so far this year is very similar to the lead Hillary Clinton held over...

centerforpolitics.org

Based on the information so far and the comparisons of average poll leads over Trump between Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, Joe Biden is headed towards a significantly larger victory in the popular vote in 2020 than Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in 2016.

THE IMPACT:

1. Joe Biden will NOT lose any states that went for Hillary in 2016.
2. Trump's only chance to win will involve victories in at least one of the following states, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states(that he won in 2016) like Florida or Arizona that are currently led by BIDEN.
3. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in the 3 key states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by an average of 7% points.
4. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Florida by 6.4% points.
5. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Ohio by 2.3% points.
6. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Arizona by 2.8% points.
7. Joe Biden has more paths to victory than Donald Trump in the electoral college.

Its unlikely that the convention and debates will have much impact on voters since the election is essentially a referendum on Trump's 4 years in office. The Recession, High Unemployment, and worsening Coronavirus Situation will be this elections most important issues and how a plurality if not a majority of voters will likely decide who to vote for.

For Trump to win, he has to squeak by with tiny victories in normally blue states like Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states that he won in 2016. Current polling shows BIDEN will likely win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by comfortable margins relative to the margins of victory in those states in 2016 by Trump.

Hillary Clinton's poll leads over Trump in 2016 were volatile from month to month from a high of 10.0% points in March 2016 to a low of 2.4% points in July 2016. By contrast, Joe Biden's lead over Trump from month to month has been more stable and has steadily risen from 5.0% points in January 2020 to 8.8% points in July 2020.

Wonder if those are the same Polls that told us all Hitlery would win in 2016??

Anyone who believes polls is dumber than a box of rocks. Guess that you. LOL

It was predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the national popular vote and she did win it, by 2.09% points. Its been decades since the average of the polls for the national popular vote before an election were wrong about the winner of the national popular vote.

No. It was predicted that she would be the next POTUS. Every poll, pundit and talking head said the same. They also said Trump didn't stand a chance.

Surprise.

Polls are for fools.

 

[Votto]

Biden will lose all of this after the debates.

I really don't think debates have any impact on the race anymore. They certainly didn't in last election.

When they see trump tearing biden apart and biden cognitive decline is there for all to see, it's over.

He is in cognitive crisis which is why he's in hiding.

I'm thinking what they will do is take away the crowd for the debate, then it will all be on tape and they will simply edit it to make Trump look bad and Biden look good.

 

[Bootney Lee Farnsworth]

Hillary Clinton's July 2016 average poll lead VS. Joe Biden's July 2020 average poll lead from REAL CLEAR POLITICS which takes an average of the latest polls:

Hillary Clinton for the month of July 2016 led Donald Trump by an average of 2.4% points in the average of the polls that month.

Joe Biden for the month of July 2020 has led Donald Trump by an average of 8.8% points in the average of the polls this month.



Hillary Clinton's average poll leads over Trump for August, September, October, and early November 2016:

August 2016 - 6.0% points
September 2016 - 2.6% points
October 2016 - 5.6% points
Early November 2016 - 3.5% points

Election day November 8, 2016 - 3.0% points
Election day actual results November 8, 2016 - 2.09% points

Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 - Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In aggregate, Joe Biden’s national lead over Donald Trump so far this year is very similar to the lead Hillary Clinton held over...

centerforpolitics.org

Based on the information so far and the comparisons of average poll leads over Trump between Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, Joe Biden is headed towards a significantly larger victory in the popular vote in 2020 than Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in 2016.

THE IMPACT:

1. Joe Biden will NOT lose any states that went for Hillary in 2016.
2. Trump's only chance to win will involve victories in at least one of the following states, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states(that he won in 2016) like Florida or Arizona that are currently led by BIDEN.
3. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in the 3 key states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by an average of 7% points.
4. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Florida by 6.4% points.
5. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Ohio by 2.3% points.
6. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Arizona by 2.8% points.
7. Joe Biden has more paths to victory than Donald Trump in the electoral college.

Its unlikely that the convention and debates will have much impact on voters since the election is essentially a referendum on Trump's 4 years in office. The Recession, High Unemployment, and worsening Coronavirus Situation will be this elections most important issues and how a plurality if not a majority of voters will likely decide who to vote for.

For Trump to win, he has to squeak by with tiny victories in normally blue states like Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states that he won in 2016. Current polling shows BIDEN will likely win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by comfortable margins relative to the margins of victory in those states in 2016 by Trump.

Hillary Clinton's poll leads over Trump in 2016 were volatile from month to month from a high of 10.0% points in March 2016 to a low of 2.4% points in July 2016. By contrast, Joe Biden's lead over Trump from month to month has been more stable and has steadily risen from 5.0% points in January 2020 to 8.8% points in July 2020.

Oh. Well, no point in having the election now.

 

[Rev.Hellh0und]

Biden will lose all of this after the debates.

I really don't think debates have any impact on the race anymore. They certainly didn't in last election.

When they see trump tearing biden apart and biden cognitive decline is there for all to see, it's over.

He is in cognitive crisis which is why he's in hiding.

I'm thinking what they will do is take away the crowd for the debate, then it will all be on tape and they will simply edit it to make Trump look bad and Biden look good.

I think it will be live. I don't think it will be taped.

 

[Votto]

Biden will lose all of this after the debates.

I really don't think debates have any impact on the race anymore. They certainly didn't in last election.

When they see trump tearing biden apart and biden cognitive decline is there for all to see, it's over.

He is in cognitive crisis which is why he's in hiding.

I'm thinking what they will do is take away the crowd for the debate, then it will all be on tape and they will simply edit it to make Trump look bad and Biden look good.

I think it will be live. I don't think it will be taped.

How will WE know for sure?

Who do you trust in the media?

 

[Rev.Hellh0und]

Biden will lose all of this after the debates.

I really don't think debates have any impact on the race anymore. They certainly didn't in last election.

When they see trump tearing biden apart and biden cognitive decline is there for all to see, it's over.

He is in cognitive crisis which is why he's in hiding.

I'm thinking what they will do is take away the crowd for the debate, then it will all be on tape and they will simply edit it to make Trump look bad and Biden look good.

I think it will be live. I don't think it will be taped.

How will WE know for sure?

Who do you trust in the media?

I don't trust any media.

 

[mudwhistle]

Structurally, this election is vastly different than 2016.

Biden isn't Clinton. Clinton had an FBI investigation and Russian interference dragging her down. She was not charismatic. She was widely disliked by large swaths of the population for a history of scandals.

Trump isn't an outsider. He now owns US policy and current situation. If things were going great, that'd be one thing, but <gestures widely the current dumpster fire> that's not the case.

That being said, I have no idea what's going to happen, but if you think this is just like 2016, you need a wakeup call.

Actually Biden is the B Team compared to Hillary. He's an even worse candidate than she was. His only experience is 40 plus years of public service with a record that can be used against him. The Democrat's riots are going to pull him down with women. Anyone that likes feeling secure in their homes won't vote for him. He's about as exciting as watching two snails fuck. The only thing the Dems are hoping for is to keep him hidden and hope everyone votes for him to end the massive suffering and depression the Democrats have caused this year.

 

[colfax_m]

Structurally, this election is vastly different than 2016.

Biden isn't Clinton. Clinton had an FBI investigation and Russian interference dragging her down. She was not charismatic. She was widely disliked by large swaths of the population for a history of scandals.

Trump isn't an outsider. He now owns US policy and current situation. If things were going great, that'd be one thing, but <gestures widely the current dumpster fire> that's not the case.

That being said, I have no idea what's going to happen, but if you think this is just like 2016, you need a wakeup call.

Actually Biden is the B Team compared to Hillary. He's an even worse candidate than she was. His only experience is 40 plus years of public service with a record that can be used against him. The Democrat's riots are going to pull him down with women. Anyone that likes feeling secure in their homes won't vote for him. He's about as exciting as watching two snails fuck. The only thing the Dems are hoping for is to keep him hidden and hope everyone votes for him to end the massive suffering and depression the Democrats have caused this year.

Biden's record is pretty squeaky clean, to be honest. No real scandals. Clinton had as much "public service", counting time spent as first lady of Arkansas and the US, rational given her involvement in policy. Except Clinton's record is marked by numerous scandals and many investigations. None of which Biden has been subjected to.

 

[mudwhistle]

Structurally, this election is vastly different than 2016.

Biden isn't Clinton. Clinton had an FBI investigation and Russian interference dragging her down. She was not charismatic. She was widely disliked by large swaths of the population for a history of scandals.

Trump isn't an outsider. He now owns US policy and current situation. If things were going great, that'd be one thing, but <gestures widely the current dumpster fire> that's not the case.

That being said, I have no idea what's going to happen, but if you think this is just like 2016, you need a wakeup call.

Actually Biden is the B Team compared to Hillary. He's an even worse candidate than she was. His only experience is 40 plus years of public service with a record that can be used against him. The Democrat's riots are going to pull him down with women. Anyone that likes feeling secure in their homes won't vote for him. He's about as exciting as watching two snails fuck. The only thing the Dems are hoping for is to keep him hidden and hope everyone votes for him to end the massive suffering and depression the Democrats have caused this year.

Biden's record is pretty squeaky clean, to be honest. No real scandals. Clinton had as much "public service", counting time spent as first lady of Arkansas and the US, rational given her involvement in policy. Except Clinton's record is marked by numerous scandals and many investigations. None of which Biden has been subjected to.

Biden was caught red-handed on video bribing Ukrainian officials with $1 billion in foreign aide.
Squeaky clean, my hairy nutsack.
He spearheaded a massive money laundering scheme for congress, which is why he's been helped into the lead during the primary. He lost his ass in the first two Primaries. Somehow they pulled his nuts out of the grinder.

 

[colfax_m]

Structurally, this election is vastly different than 2016.

Biden isn't Clinton. Clinton had an FBI investigation and Russian interference dragging her down. She was not charismatic. She was widely disliked by large swaths of the population for a history of scandals.

Trump isn't an outsider. He now owns US policy and current situation. If things were going great, that'd be one thing, but <gestures widely the current dumpster fire> that's not the case.

That being said, I have no idea what's going to happen, but if you think this is just like 2016, you need a wakeup call.

Actually Biden is the B Team compared to Hillary. He's an even worse candidate than she was. His only experience is 40 plus years of public service with a record that can be used against him. The Democrat's riots are going to pull him down with women. Anyone that likes feeling secure in their homes won't vote for him. He's about as exciting as watching two snails fuck. The only thing the Dems are hoping for is to keep him hidden and hope everyone votes for him to end the massive suffering and depression the Democrats have caused this year.

Biden's record is pretty squeaky clean, to be honest. No real scandals. Clinton had as much "public service", counting time spent as first lady of Arkansas and the US, rational given her involvement in policy. Except Clinton's record is marked by numerous scandals and many investigations. None of which Biden has been subjected to.

Biden was caught red-handed on video bribing Ukrainian officials with $1 billion in foreign aide.
Squeaky clean, my hairy nutsack.
He spearheaded a massive money laundering scheme for congress, which is why he's been helped into the lead during the primary. He lost his ass in the first two Primaries. Somehow they pulled his nuts out of the grinder.

Biden's Ukraine scandal isn't a real scandal. It's a TV scandal for poorly informed. There's no actual corruption there which is why our DoJ isn't touching it with a 10 foot pole. You have Biden on video enacting US foreign policy for the benefit of US taxpayers. Not corruption.

Tell me more about this "money laundering" scheme. Love to hear more.

 

[U2Edge]

Polls are BS. What part about they're never right have people missed?

Next.

The part that they are usually right and correctly predicted who would win the popular vote in 2016. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.09% points

There is no such thing as the "popular vote." It doesn't exist other than as an informal number that some people calculated and put out there. In this country we use the electoral college:

Constitution of the United States

View the full United States Constitution, Bill of Rights, and all Amendments online. Additional summaries and explanations.

constitutionus.com

You can't take data for an election based on a set of criteria that voters knew the election was based on (EV) and conclude that if you changed the rules and use the same data it would turn out the same way.

1) The campaigns campaigned for the EV not the PV. For example, where they ran ads and where they went to influence voters

2) There are actually tens of millions of Republicans in places like California who knew their vote was worthless in the EV. That wouldn't have been true if we used the PV

I can't believe you don't know this BASIC information. Didn't exactly go to college, did you?

How know how the United States elects Presidents, but what you don't understand is the impact popularity in the national popular vote has on the outcome of the Electoral College Vote. Over the past 200 years, over 90% of the time, the winner of the popular vote is the winner of the electoral college. There have only been 4 elections when the popular vote winner, did not get the most electoral college votes, 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016.

When the popular vote winner has won the popular vote by a margin of 3.01% points or greater, the popular vote winner has received the most votes in the electoral college 100% of the time. Joe Biden is going to win the popular vote by at least 3 to 4 percentage points.


Again, the only thing that could change all this is lower voter turnout due to coronavirus and mess up with mail in voting to pick up the slack with in person poll voting on election day.

What you just accurately pointed out is that the popular vote and electoral college vote are correlated. It's completely obvious, but true.

That doesn't change the point that Biden isn't campaigning for the PV and neither is Trump. They are both campaigning for the EV and that dramatically impacts their appearances and advertising by State. And people voting know that and it affects who shows up.

You didn't add anything to the discussion. The PV isn't a thing. It's just an informal number that was tallied up that has no actual meaning or causation

The higher the margin of victory is in the popular vote, the less likely it is that a candidate will win by simply winning with the electoral college.

The whole red state vs blue state competition, swing states, is a current phenomenon that has not always been a feature of U.S. Presidential elections. Think of elections in 1964, 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988. There were no swing states in any of those elections. The candidates ran true national campaigns. There may have been some focus on the states with the larger electoral votes.

But even with the current partisan divide, a strong victory in the popular vote will translate into an electoral college victory. Rutherford B. Hayes holds the record for losing the popular vote by the largest margin, 3.0% points, but still winning the electoral college. Trump is second losing the popular vote in 2016 by 2.09% points, but still winning the electoral college. Benjamin Harrison is third losing the popular vote in 1888 by .83% points, but still winning the electoral college. George W. Bush is fourth losing the popular vote in 2000 by .51% points, but still winning the electoral college.

The point here is that winning the electoral college without winning the popular vote is rare, and when it does happen, one of the features is a rather close competition when it comes to winning the popular vote of 3.0% points or less. Current polling has Joe Biden leading Trump nationally by an average of nearly 9.0% points. No matter how many times you want to talk about ONE ELECTION, 2016, Biden's current polling lead is a significant sign that Donald Trump is in trouble.

The national polling numbers were right in 2016. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. In over 90% of elections, that would have been enough to carry the electoral college. Donald Trump squeaked out tiny victories in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania for the Electoral College win.

If one is running for President, you NEVER dismiss national polling. Being behind in national polling by more than three points is a sure sign that your in danger of losing the election. Trump is behind Biden by nearly 9.0% points, currently. That is not a good sign for Trump and those in charge of his re-election campaign are definitely worried. Trump needs Biden to be ahead by no more than 3.0% points, in order to have a decent shot of still winning the electoral college. That is what over 200 years of United States Electoral history has shown.

 

[U2Edge]

Hillary Clinton's July 2016 average poll lead VS. Joe Biden's July 2020 average poll lead from REAL CLEAR POLITICS which takes an average of the latest polls:

Hillary Clinton for the month of July 2016 led Donald Trump by an average of 2.4% points in the average of the polls that month.

Joe Biden for the month of July 2020 has led Donald Trump by an average of 8.8% points in the average of the polls this month.



Hillary Clinton's average poll leads over Trump for August, September, October, and early November 2016:

August 2016 - 6.0% points
September 2016 - 2.6% points
October 2016 - 5.6% points
Early November 2016 - 3.5% points

Election day November 8, 2016 - 3.0% points
Election day actual results November 8, 2016 - 2.09% points

Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 - Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In aggregate, Joe Biden’s national lead over Donald Trump so far this year is very similar to the lead Hillary Clinton held over...

centerforpolitics.org

Based on the information so far and the comparisons of average poll leads over Trump between Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, Joe Biden is headed towards a significantly larger victory in the popular vote in 2020 than Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in 2016.

THE IMPACT:

1. Joe Biden will NOT lose any states that went for Hillary in 2016.
2. Trump's only chance to win will involve victories in at least one of the following states, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states(that he won in 2016) like Florida or Arizona that are currently led by BIDEN.
3. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in the 3 key states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by an average of 7% points.
4. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Florida by 6.4% points.
5. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Ohio by 2.3% points.
6. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Arizona by 2.8% points.
7. Joe Biden has more paths to victory than Donald Trump in the electoral college.

Its unlikely that the convention and debates will have much impact on voters since the election is essentially a referendum on Trump's 4 years in office. The Recession, High Unemployment, and worsening Coronavirus Situation will be this elections most important issues and how a plurality if not a majority of voters will likely decide who to vote for.

For Trump to win, he has to squeak by with tiny victories in normally blue states like Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states that he won in 2016. Current polling shows BIDEN will likely win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by comfortable margins relative to the margins of victory in those states in 2016 by Trump.

Hillary Clinton's poll leads over Trump in 2016 were volatile from month to month from a high of 10.0% points in March 2016 to a low of 2.4% points in July 2016. By contrast, Joe Biden's lead over Trump from month to month has been more stable and has steadily risen from 5.0% points in January 2020 to 8.8% points in July 2020.

Wonder if those are the same Polls that told us all Hitlery would win in 2016??

Anyone who believes polls is dumber than a box of rocks. Guess that you. LOL

It was predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the national popular vote and she did win it, by 2.09% points. Its been decades since the average of the polls for the national popular vote before an election were wrong about the winner of the national popular vote.

No. It was predicted that she would be the next POTUS. Every poll, pundit and talking head said the same. They also said Trump didn't stand a chance.

Surprise.

Polls are for fools.

Well, Trump's re-election campaign team does not agree with you and is using lots of polls to plan their strategy in these final 3 months. Trump's team is very worried about the fact that Trump is currently nearly 9.0% points behind Biden in the average of the latest polling.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

Hillary Clinton's July 2016 average poll lead VS. Joe Biden's July 2020 average poll lead from REAL CLEAR POLITICS which takes an average of the latest polls:

Hillary Clinton for the month of July 2016 led Donald Trump by an average of 2.4% points in the average of the polls that month.

Joe Biden for the month of July 2020 has led Donald Trump by an average of 8.8% points in the average of the polls this month.



Hillary Clinton's average poll leads over Trump for August, September, October, and early November 2016:

August 2016 - 6.0% points
September 2016 - 2.6% points
October 2016 - 5.6% points
Early November 2016 - 3.5% points

Election day November 8, 2016 - 3.0% points
Election day actual results November 8, 2016 - 2.09% points

Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 - Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In aggregate, Joe Biden’s national lead over Donald Trump so far this year is very similar to the lead Hillary Clinton held over...

centerforpolitics.org

Based on the information so far and the comparisons of average poll leads over Trump between Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, Joe Biden is headed towards a significantly larger victory in the popular vote in 2020 than Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in 2016.

THE IMPACT:

1. Joe Biden will NOT lose any states that went for Hillary in 2016.
2. Trump's only chance to win will involve victories in at least one of the following states, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states(that he won in 2016) like Florida or Arizona that are currently led by BIDEN.
3. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in the 3 key states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by an average of 7% points.
4. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Florida by 6.4% points.
5. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Ohio by 2.3% points.
6. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Arizona by 2.8% points.
7. Joe Biden has more paths to victory than Donald Trump in the electoral college.

Its unlikely that the convention and debates will have much impact on voters since the election is essentially a referendum on Trump's 4 years in office. The Recession, High Unemployment, and worsening Coronavirus Situation will be this elections most important issues and how a plurality if not a majority of voters will likely decide who to vote for.

For Trump to win, he has to squeak by with tiny victories in normally blue states like Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states that he won in 2016. Current polling shows BIDEN will likely win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by comfortable margins relative to the margins of victory in those states in 2016 by Trump.

Hillary Clinton's poll leads over Trump in 2016 were volatile from month to month from a high of 10.0% points in March 2016 to a low of 2.4% points in July 2016. By contrast, Joe Biden's lead over Trump from month to month has been more stable and has steadily risen from 5.0% points in January 2020 to 8.8% points in July 2020.

Manipulated polls know they have to step up their game

 

[evenflow1969]

Hillary Clinton's July 2016 average poll lead VS. Joe Biden's July 2020 average poll lead from REAL CLEAR POLITICS which takes an average of the latest polls:

Hillary Clinton for the month of July 2016 led Donald Trump by an average of 2.4% points in the average of the polls that month.

Joe Biden for the month of July 2020 has led Donald Trump by an average of 8.8% points in the average of the polls this month.



Hillary Clinton's average poll leads over Trump for August, September, October, and early November 2016:

August 2016 - 6.0% points
September 2016 - 2.6% points
October 2016 - 5.6% points
Early November 2016 - 3.5% points

Election day November 8, 2016 - 3.0% points
Election day actual results November 8, 2016 - 2.09% points

Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 - Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In aggregate, Joe Biden’s national lead over Donald Trump so far this year is very similar to the lead Hillary Clinton held over...

centerforpolitics.org

Based on the information so far and the comparisons of average poll leads over Trump between Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, Joe Biden is headed towards a significantly larger victory in the popular vote in 2020 than Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in 2016.

THE IMPACT:

1. Joe Biden will NOT lose any states that went for Hillary in 2016.
2. Trump's only chance to win will involve victories in at least one of the following states, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states(that he won in 2016) like Florida or Arizona that are currently led by BIDEN.
3. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in the 3 key states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by an average of 7% points.
4. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Florida by 6.4% points.
5. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Ohio by 2.3% points.
6. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Arizona by 2.8% points.
7. Joe Biden has more paths to victory than Donald Trump in the electoral college.

Its unlikely that the convention and debates will have much impact on voters since the election is essentially a referendum on Trump's 4 years in office. The Recession, High Unemployment, and worsening Coronavirus Situation will be this elections most important issues and how a plurality if not a majority of voters will likely decide who to vote for.

For Trump to win, he has to squeak by with tiny victories in normally blue states like Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states that he won in 2016. Current polling shows BIDEN will likely win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by comfortable margins relative to the margins of victory in those states in 2016 by Trump.

Hillary Clinton's poll leads over Trump in 2016 were volatile from month to month from a high of 10.0% points in March 2016 to a low of 2.4% points in July 2016. By contrast, Joe Biden's lead over Trump from month to month has been more stable and has steadily risen from 5.0% points in January 2020 to 8.8% points in July 2020.

polls are a joke this far awayh. I would not read much into them.

1. The election is not far away.
2. Polling does and has in the past mattered this far out to a certain degree.
3. What is going to change in the next three months about the economy and the coronavirus? The economy is in recession with high unemployment, and the coronavirus is getting worse.

As crazy as this year has been I do not even want to think about what could change. If you had told me it would have been like it is right now four years ago I would have laughed in your face but here we are Hell aliens could land tomorrow and I would be like that is just 2020

 

[mudwhistle]

Structurally, this election is vastly different than 2016.

Biden isn't Clinton. Clinton had an FBI investigation and Russian interference dragging her down. She was not charismatic. She was widely disliked by large swaths of the population for a history of scandals.

Trump isn't an outsider. He now owns US policy and current situation. If things were going great, that'd be one thing, but <gestures widely the current dumpster fire> that's not the case.

That being said, I have no idea what's going to happen, but if you think this is just like 2016, you need a wakeup call.

Actually Biden is the B Team compared to Hillary. He's an even worse candidate than she was. His only experience is 40 plus years of public service with a record that can be used against him. The Democrat's riots are going to pull him down with women. Anyone that likes feeling secure in their homes won't vote for him. He's about as exciting as watching two snails fuck. The only thing the Dems are hoping for is to keep him hidden and hope everyone votes for him to end the massive suffering and depression the Democrats have caused this year.

Biden's record is pretty squeaky clean, to be honest. No real scandals. Clinton had as much "public service", counting time spent as first lady of Arkansas and the US, rational given her involvement in policy. Except Clinton's record is marked by numerous scandals and many investigations. None of which Biden has been subjected to.

Biden was caught red-handed on video bribing Ukrainian officials with $1 billion in foreign aide.
Squeaky clean, my hairy nutsack.
He spearheaded a massive money laundering scheme for congress, which is why he's been helped into the lead during the primary. He lost his ass in the first two Primaries. Somehow they pulled his nuts out of the grinder.

Biden's Ukraine scandal isn't a real scandal. It's a TV scandal for poorly informed. There's no actual corruption there which is why our DoJ isn't touching it with a 10 foot pole. You have Biden on video enacting US foreign policy for the benefit of US taxpayers. Not corruption.

Tell me more about this "money laundering" scheme. Love to hear more.

You're a liar.
That kind of video evidence would cause the media and Democrats to do cartwheels....if they got that kind of evidence on Donald J. Trump. He would literally be toast.

Yep....many banks are operating in Delaware. Biden's home state. So most of our money passes thru that state.
What a great way to launder money.

I guess you never heard of this situation:

Beck unveils money laundering scheme linked to Biden

Joe Biden’s son and his partners received $16.5 million from Burisma — Ukrainian MP

According to the politician, Hunter Biden was paid by laundered money for his services for Ukraine's Burisma Holdings energy company

tass.com

https://banking.delaware.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/73/2017/07/WEB-Financial-Institutions-List-710.pdf

 

[busybee01]

Hillary Clinton's July 2016 average poll lead VS. Joe Biden's July 2020 average poll lead from REAL CLEAR POLITICS which takes an average of the latest polls:

Hillary Clinton for the month of July 2016 led Donald Trump by an average of 2.4% points in the average of the polls that month.

Joe Biden for the month of July 2020 has led Donald Trump by an average of 8.8% points in the average of the polls this month.



Hillary Clinton's average poll leads over Trump for August, September, October, and early November 2016:

August 2016 - 6.0% points
September 2016 - 2.6% points
October 2016 - 5.6% points
Early November 2016 - 3.5% points

Election day November 8, 2016 - 3.0% points
Election day actual results November 8, 2016 - 2.09% points

Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 - Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In aggregate, Joe Biden’s national lead over Donald Trump so far this year is very similar to the lead Hillary Clinton held over...

centerforpolitics.org

Based on the information so far and the comparisons of average poll leads over Trump between Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, Joe Biden is headed towards a significantly larger victory in the popular vote in 2020 than Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in 2016.

THE IMPACT:

1. Joe Biden will NOT lose any states that went for Hillary in 2016.
2. Trump's only chance to win will involve victories in at least one of the following states, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states(that he won in 2016) like Florida or Arizona that are currently led by BIDEN.
3. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in the 3 key states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by an average of 7% points.
4. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Florida by 6.4% points.
5. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Ohio by 2.3% points.
6. Joe Biden currently leads Trump in Arizona by 2.8% points.
7. Joe Biden has more paths to victory than Donald Trump in the electoral college.

Its unlikely that the convention and debates will have much impact on voters since the election is essentially a referendum on Trump's 4 years in office. The Recession, High Unemployment, and worsening Coronavirus Situation will be this elections most important issues and how a plurality if not a majority of voters will likely decide who to vote for.

For Trump to win, he has to squeak by with tiny victories in normally blue states like Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania, while not losing any other states that he won in 2016. Current polling shows BIDEN will likely win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by comfortable margins relative to the margins of victory in those states in 2016 by Trump.

Hillary Clinton's poll leads over Trump in 2016 were volatile from month to month from a high of 10.0% points in March 2016 to a low of 2.4% points in July 2016. By contrast, Joe Biden's lead over Trump from month to month has been more stable and has steadily risen from 5.0% points in January 2020 to 8.8% points in July 2020.

Also in 2016, there were several independent and third party candidates were doing fairly well. Over time they faded.. That was a wild card. There are no such candidates on the ballot in 2020.