Go Left, Then Go Home

[progressive hunter]

Oops, struck a nerve.

You clearly don't know what Marxism is. That's okay, neither do any other ignorant Trumpsters.

but I do know about progressivism,, its about baby steps,,,

and do try and keep your TDS in check when hes not the topic,,

 

[Mac1958]

While I've long said the Democrats will lose the House in 2022, is being bad at politics why they won the House and Senate under Trump?
Is being bad the reason neither party can not hold anything for very long?

They just can't control themselves. Pleasing the base, fundraising and getting re-elected are their only priorities. When that's all that matters, you're simply not looking at the big picture.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Does it really matter now. Both parties are pathetic.

 

[ClaireH]

Stanford political scientists Andrew Hall and Daniel Thompson, for example, studied House races between 2006 and 2014 and found that highly ideological candidates who beat moderates for a party nomination indeed increased turnout in their own party in the general election — but they increased the opposition turnout even more. (The difference was between three and eight percentage points.)

That is quite interesting and I’ve never thought enough about that outcome. It makes perfect sense to think how most humans aren’t comfortable with loud, in your face demands by oppositional groups. Acts of violence lead to more of the same, excessive damages to clean up, and increase hatred towards that specific group.

Political far left and far right extremist “activists” are a far cry from Gandhi’s message of effective, peaceful protests. Expecting that violence will lead to peace is something I’ve always had trouble with understanding. History shows authoritarian leaders can never really sleep well at night due to potential and eventual assassinations.

When an extreme political element attempts to force its will over the masses, including a large majority of independents and moderates who have zero respect for hateful rhetoric and violent actions, they will fail. Defeating themselves by their own game would be a definite positive.

Thanks for bringing up a positive outcome from a never-ending cycle of
violent offenders, depicted nightly on most any news channel. There is a light at the end of the tunnel!

 

[HappyJoy]

Hi, liberal here. You may know me better by your made up definitions of marxist or comminist.

Democrats are going to lose seats in 2022
Thats almost a foregone conclusion considering they are the party in the Whitehouse.

I understand the concern over wokism. God knows nobody likes to be preached to.

I have a question for moderates. What Democratic politicians up for reelection are too woke that will be on your ballot? For that matter what mainstream Democrats are too woke? Give me examples as I am truly interested.

Hint: The last paragraph was for moderates. I don't care who the wingnuts want to call a "faggot".

 

[MisterBeale]

meh. . . it won't matter. The Deep State will rig all the elections they need to win.

 

[busybee01]

The progressives think that going even more woke is the key to winning in 2022. This would be a disaster. There are nearly 20 Democrats in tight races versus 2 for the Republicans. And that's before redistricting. Historically, the House has swung by on average 26 seats after the President has one his first term. Finally, driving out your base drives out the other side's base even more.

The political reality facing Democrats is stark. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) “Frontline” districts for protecting the majority include 6 seats that Donald Trump won in 2020, and 13 seats that Joe Biden won by less than 5 points. Data presented to Roll Call from the DCCC also shows that 18 frontline Democrats won their own elections by less than 5 points. And the results of reapportionment and redistricting will likely make things even worse for Democrats.​

​

As election gurus Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik showed in May, Republicans are currently defending only 2 real toss-up seats compared to 19 for Democrats — prior to any redistricting chaos.​

​

For Democrats to have any chance at succeeding in 2022 then, they must recognize the headwinds facing the party—plus the limited opportunities for their own gains—and adopt a coherent strategy that both appeals to core Democratic voters and potential converts in moderate-to-conservative districts. ...​

​

Indeed, the general result of polarizing election contests to achieve higher base turnout is more likely to hurt than help Democrats. Advocates of a base mobilization/high turnout strategy generally assume that only “their” nonvoters will show up at the polls, but none of the nonvoters from the other side will. That view is contradicted by many political science studies. Stanford political scientists Andrew Hall and Daniel Thompson, for example, studied House races between 2006 and 2014 and found that highly ideological candidates who beat moderates for a party nomination indeed increased turnout in their own party in the general election — but they increased the opposition turnout even more. (The difference was between three and eight percentage points.)​

​

Apparently, their extreme political stances did more to turn out the other side to vote against them than to turn out their own side to vote for them. That is a sobering reminder that turnout of the base is no guarantee of electoral success.​

The Base Mobilization Fallacy

Just mobilizing the base won’t do the trick. Persuasion of moderates and Independents in swing districts will be critical in 2022.

theliberalpatriot.substack.com

Except that the base of the Democratic Party is not woke left. It's center to moderate left. That's why Biden won the nomination and the election, and why moderates have kept winning this year.

But I'm sure the Democratic leadership won't listen. The Left is uniquely bad at politics.

The fact is that 2022 will be a midterm like no other. The normal rules may not apply here. There have been midterms like that. In 1998, Democrats beat the odds and picked up seats. The reason was voters' rejection of Republican attempts to impeach Clinton.

The Republicans are facing various headwinds of their own that could hurt them.

The first was the attack on the capitol on Jan 6 and Republican attempts to pretend it didn't happen. Tied into this are Republican attempts to prevent a congressional investigation. The commission is set to expire at the end of this year. However if Republicans who may be implicated fight a subpoena that could drag this into next year. If Republicans were smart they would just testify and get it over with.

The second are the 2020 election and voting rights. Trump has attempted to make this a referendum on the idea that he really won. If this becomes a referendum on 2020 then Republicans lose. Secondly the Republican Party has launched a attack on voting rights. That is not supported by voters in general. Republicans are betting that people will be pissed but not angry enough to do something about it. If they are wrong then that could be trouble for Republicans.

The pandemic is a third issue. Republicans are not concerned about the spread of the coronavirus as they are appealing to the base. However DeSantis, and Abbott's refusal to protect their residents through something as simple as a mask mandate will not sit well with voters. Their attempts to ban school districts from protecting the children through mask mandates will not sit well. The fact is that the states that are hardest hit are for the most part red states, Florida is no 1 in children catching coronavirus. This will likely go on in to 2022.

Then you have the Republican lurch to the fascist right represented by Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert. They have given many cringe worthy quotes. Also the attack on Cheney may come back to haunt them especially among suburban and especially suburban women.

Also voters generally support Democrats on issues. They should talk about the child care tax credit that is supported by voters and opposed by Republicans. They should also talk about issues facing this country such as the housing crisis.

Then you have other wild cards that could come into play. The Supreme Court could very well repeal Roe vs Wade. That would be a huge issue for Republicans among moderate voters.

Depending on which factors come into play could determine the outcome.

 

[HappyJoy]

The fact is that 2022 will be a midterm like no other. The normal rules may not apply here. There have been midterms like that. In 1998, Democrats beat the odds and picked up seats. The reason was voters' rejection of Republican attempts to impeach Clinton.

The Republicans are facing various headwinds of their own that could hurt them.

The first was the attack on the capitol on Jan 6 and Republican attempts to pretend it didn't happen. Tied into this are Republican attempts to prevent a congressional investigation. The commission is set to expire at the end of this year. However if Republicans who may be implicated fight a subpoena that could drag this into next year. If Republicans were smart they would just testify and get it over with.

The second are the 2020 election and voting rights. Trump has attempted to make this a referendum on the idea that he really won. If this becomes a referendum on 2020 then Republicans lose. Secondly the Republican Party has launched a attack on voting rights. That is not supported by voters in general. Republicans are betting that people will be pissed but not angry enough to do something about it. If they are wrong then that could be trouble for Republicans.

The pandemic is a third issue. Republicans are not concerned about the spread of the coronavirus as they are appealing to the base. However DeSantis, and Abbott's refusal to protect their residents through something as simple as a mask mandate will not sit well with voters. Their attempts to ban school districts from protecting the children through mask mandates will not sit well. The fact is that the states that are hardest hit are for the most part red states, Florida is no 1 in children catching coronavirus. This will likely go on in to 2022.

Then you have the Republican lurch to the fascist right represented by Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert. They have given many cringe worthy quotes. Also the attack on Cheney may come back to haunt them especially among suburban and especially suburban women.

Also voters generally support Democrats on issues. They should talk about the child care tax credit that is supported by voters and opposed by Republicans. They should also talk about issues facing this country such as the housing crisis.

Then you have other wild cards that could come into play. The Supreme Court could very well repeal Roe vs Wade. That would be a huge issue for Republicans among moderate voters.

Depending on which factors come into play could determine the outcome.

In 1996 voters were in favor of their own economic situation than whatever was happening with Clinton.

I dont know what next year looks like.

 

[Rogue AI]

One issue isn't Marxism.

Good thing I wasn't holding my breath, Captain Hyperbole.

The one issue the Marxists pushed to the limit openly. Pick any issue and it leads to the same place, single party centralized control.

 

[boedicca]

The progressives think that going even more woke is the key to winning in 2022. This would be a disaster. There are nearly 20 Democrats in tight races versus 2 for the Republicans. And that's before redistricting. Historically, the House has swung by on average 26 seats after the President has one his first term. Finally, driving out your base drives out the other side's base even more.

The political reality facing Democrats is stark. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) “Frontline” districts for protecting the majority include 6 seats that Donald Trump won in 2020, and 13 seats that Joe Biden won by less than 5 points. Data presented to Roll Call from the DCCC also shows that 18 frontline Democrats won their own elections by less than 5 points. And the results of reapportionment and redistricting will likely make things even worse for Democrats.​

​

As election gurus Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik showed in May, Republicans are currently defending only 2 real toss-up seats compared to 19 for Democrats — prior to any redistricting chaos.​

​

For Democrats to have any chance at succeeding in 2022 then, they must recognize the headwinds facing the party—plus the limited opportunities for their own gains—and adopt a coherent strategy that both appeals to core Democratic voters and potential converts in moderate-to-conservative districts. ...​

​

Indeed, the general result of polarizing election contests to achieve higher base turnout is more likely to hurt than help Democrats. Advocates of a base mobilization/high turnout strategy generally assume that only “their” nonvoters will show up at the polls, but none of the nonvoters from the other side will. That view is contradicted by many political science studies. Stanford political scientists Andrew Hall and Daniel Thompson, for example, studied House races between 2006 and 2014 and found that highly ideological candidates who beat moderates for a party nomination indeed increased turnout in their own party in the general election — but they increased the opposition turnout even more. (The difference was between three and eight percentage points.)​

​

Apparently, their extreme political stances did more to turn out the other side to vote against them than to turn out their own side to vote for them. That is a sobering reminder that turnout of the base is no guarantee of electoral success.​

The Base Mobilization Fallacy

Just mobilizing the base won’t do the trick. Persuasion of moderates and Independents in swing districts will be critical in 2022.

theliberalpatriot.substack.com

Except that the base of the Democratic Party is not woke left. It's center to moderate left. That's why Biden won the nomination and the election, and why moderates have kept winning this year.

But I'm sure the Democratic leadership won't listen. The Left is uniquely bad at politics.

There isn't a small enough violin....

 

[LeftofLeft]

While I've long said the Democrats will lose the House in 2022, is being bad at politics why they won the House and Senate under Trump?

Is being bad the reason neither party can not hold anything for very long?

The Pendulum swings. Republicans suck as a party yet somehow they took the House and Senate under Obama.

 

[pknopp]

The Pendulum swings. Republicans suck as a party yet somehow they took the House and Senate under Obama.

"We will know what is in it after we pass it" did that.

 

[Mac1958]

The one issue the Marxists pushed to the limit openly. Pick any issue and it leads to the same place, single party centralized control.

Name one Democrat who is pushing Marxism: Public ownership and control of all production and distribution.

When you can't do that, you'll point to just one single issue or play some other game.

The size, scope, and cost of government is a critical issue. But Trumpsters are making a mockery of the topic, because they don't appear to even know what Marxism is.

 

[Grumblenuts]

Everyone one of them who supports single payer healthcare for a start. That list is long, look it up yourself. You're welcome.

Okay..

Why Do People Hate Universal Health Care? It Turns Out — They Don’t.

A new survey of 150,000 Americans finds private health care consistently ranks lower than public options.

capitalandmain.com

You're welcome.

 

[Coyote]

Name one Democrat who is pushing Marxism: Public ownership and control of all production and distribution.

When you can't do that, you'll point to just one single issue or play some other game.

The size, scope, and cost of government is a critical issue. But Trumpsters are making a mockery of the topic, because they don't appear to even know what Marxism is.

They don't know what it is. Just like they confuse conservatism with fealty to Trump.

 

[Mac1958]

They don't know what it is. Just like they conservatism with fealty to Trump.

It just blows my mind that there is so much information available for them to access, and they don't even have the fundamental curiosity to LOOK IT UP.

 

[bendog]

are you saying regs dont exist and a corporation doesnt need government permission to exist??

Hold the phone. Are you actually trying to say that regulation of corporations, and private capital, as we've done for nearly 150 years is communism?

 

[wamose]

The media has gone to bat for Democrats far too often to be taken seriously any more. I think Dems. are in for a well deserved beatin' in 22. But having said that, these two assholes, McCarthy and McConnell, need to do more than be appalled at all the stupid shit Biden is doing. Do something about the border or social media censorship or our failing education system or our out of control spending or our crooked elections. McCarthy and McConnell are both do nothing, neocon assholes who think Biden mistakes make THEM look better. They don't.