Forget Boris - 'Brexit Minister' David Davis is far more important

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Consequently, the little-known Davis will have much more scope to shape Britain's future than Johnson. So what does his appointment hint about May's approach to Brexit negotiations?

A former shadow home secretary and veteran Eurosceptic, Davis is an important member of the Conservative Party's influential right wing. His appointment is another example of May attempting to unify the party by including both sides of the Europe debate.


However, it is possible to draw more specific conclusions about Davis's promotion from an opinion piece he wrote for the Conservative Home website on Monday. In the 2050-word article, the "Minister for Brexit" argues the UK should pursue bilateral free trade deals with other countries over the next 12-24 months and plays down the importance of remaining in the European single market of some 500 million people.

In this sense he is advocating a so-called Hard Brexit necessary to ensure Britain completely escapes EU freedom of movement rules which allow workers to circulate within the 28-member bloc. These rules are unpopular within in the UK and were exploited by a Leave campaign that focussed on uncontrolled EU immigration.

A Soft Brexit, also known as the Norway option, would give the UK access to the single market via membership of the free-trade European Economic Area. But it would also force Britons to financially contribute to the EU and sign up to freedom of movement.

Davis is an optimist when it comes to his European counterparts. He believes the continent will, "after a lot of wrangling", end up offering the UK tariff-free access to the common market. "Once the European nations realise that we are not going to budge on control of our borders, they will want to talk, in their own interest," he writes.


If the EU does impose tariffs on, say, British cars then the UK would do the same and use the proceeds to make its domestic automotive industry more competitive. Not that he believes "for a moment" that this will happen.

Analysts at Eurointelligence describe the Davis plan as "utterly bonkers" although they "are at least glad to see that somebody has actually put together what appears to be a strategy". The research house outlines technical obstacles that lie ahead for the UK including "the need" to negotiate a separate membership of the World Trade Organisation which might take years. This could require the UK to negotiate transitional arrangement with the EU while discussions with the WTO are concluded.

Yet even if the UK is able to clear these administrative hurdles much will depend on the attitudes of European leaders.

Some are energised by Brexit, arguing Britain has been the bloc's most reluctant and difficult member over the past 43 years. Without having to pander to British demands, they can reform the European project without fear of London objecting.


"The years are over when Europe cannot follow a course because the British will object," International Monetary Fund director Christine Lagarde said. "Now the British are going, Europe can find a new elan."

Others are more conciliatory. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said this week that demands for British financial services firms to have access to the EU single market were "reasonable".

Shäuble's comments are a reminder Davis makes no mention of prized "passporting" arrangements that have helped London become a global financial capital. Based on the EU principle of mutual recognition, passporting allows banks and other financial institutions in one member nation to provide services in other member nations without additional licensing.

With Paris and Frankfurt desperate to steal banking jobs from London, it seems likely passporting rights would only be extended to Britain in return for the softest of Brexits. And even then it is no sure bet.

Whether May opts for the Hard Brexit proposed by Davis remains to be seen. It is certainly a more technically and economically risky course of action that may not appeal to a new PM who is regarded as cautious. However, May will not want to undermine her "tough on immigration" credentials by negotiating a Soft Brexit that allows some form of freedom of movement.

In one of her rare speeches during the referendum campaign, May acknowledged the challenges of gaining access to the common market without membership.

"Some say we would strike deals that are the same as the EU's agreements with Norway, Switzerland or even Canada," she told the Institute of Mechanical Engineers in late April.

"But with all due respect to those countries, we are a bigger and more powerful nation than all 3. Perhaps that means we could strike a better deal than they have. After all, Germany will still want to sell us their cars and the French will still want to sell us their wine.


"But in a stand-off between Britain and the EU, 44 per cent of our exports is more important to us than 8 per cent of the EU's exports is to them."

May reveals herself as a realist about Europe's bargaining power during Brexit negotiations. Davis is an optimist. It will interesting to see how they get along.



Read more: Boris may get the headlines but David Davis is far more important to Britain's EU withdrawl.
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Customs duties on merchandise imports are called tariffs. Tariffs give a price advantage to locally-produced goods over similar goods which are imported, and they raise revenues for governments. One result of the Uruguay Round was countries’ commitments to cut tariffs and to “bind” their customs duty rates to levels which are difficult to raise. The current negotiations under the Doha Agenda continue efforts in that direction in agriculture and non-agricultural market access.


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